The ADP private sector payroll report [link here] reflects continued rapid recovery from the regional COVID-19 shutdowns. The monthly report shows gains of 749,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 650,000 forecast.
One of the key factors is the expiration of the disincentive via the federal COVID unemployment mechanism that provided an additional $600/month beyond normal earnings in the unemployment package. This has been a topic of many coversations in my travels as working-class businesses have been having a hard time getting people to return to work. (more on that below)
(Reuters) Private payrolls increased by 749,000 jobs this month after rising 481,000 in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls would rise by 650,000 in September. Employment gains were spread across all industries and company size.
Manufacturing payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs and employment at construction sites rose 60,000. Hiring in the services industries advanced 552,000, with trade, transportation and utilities leading the gains. (more)
As many of you know I have been traveling extensively throughout the country as I continue to brief groups on background DC, DOJ and FBI information from my years of research. During these travels I make a point to visit sector-specific businesses to inquire about their economic and business growth status.
The disconnect amid a ground reality compared to business reporting and financial media is actually stunning. However, perhaps that is because my physical ‘on-the-ground’ inquires and reports are ahead of the natural lag in the economic data rolling up to the accounting level. Here’s what I can tell you with absolute certainty.
The amount of heavy equipment, industrial equipment, hardware and goods being moved around the country is more than I have ever witnessed or seen in decades of travel. The mid-west, mid-atlantic, southeast, and more specifically the south in general, has more haulers and semi-trucks on the road than I have ever witnessed…. ever…. by a substantial margin. The same is true for rail freight and cargo vessels.
Because the scale of goods transportation is so visibly larger, it caused me to revisit a much earlier proposal by President Trump on U.S. infrastructure to see if this was actually a foreseeable scenario. I think it was…. I think the reversal of the proverbial “rust” from our economic rust-belt a predictable domestic economic restoration, and that goes to the need of the infrastructure program that President Trump was speaking about before the COVID contraction.
Regardless of what financial pundits and economic media might be saying, the underlying economic activity in the U.S. right now is explosive and moving at a much more rapid pace than before the COVID crisis. Regionally, business owners and operators all report the same thing, and the same need for a larger workforce. All of them are hiring; however, some sector specifics and regional specifics are much more intense.
The demand on the transportation sector for truck drivers must be intense just based on the sheer volume of equipment visibly being moved around the nation. Perhaps this is party due to an exodus from urban areas (that is obvious); and perhaps this is due to the opportunities now that COVID shutdowns are ending and there are major populations relocating outside the metropolitan regions.
When populations shift, all the ancillary businesses related to the stuff they need also shift and expand. Combine this with the expansion in domestic manufacturing due to trade deals starting to come on-line, specifically the USMCA, and I believe this is a large part of what is currently visible. Believe me… it’s very real, and quite jaw-dropping to witness.
Jobs over mobs ??
Point of order after watching debate.
If you liked Trump he gave you exactly what you wanted. He took a flame thrower to Biden and Wallace. You will walk over glass to vote for him
If you are a woke progressive who liked Biden you walked away. No green deal no Medicare for all no defund police no court packing. Claims he destroyed bernie. Will the woke left be motivated by that?
Independents dont vote. The base does. Trump inspired the base
Wow. I can tell you home building and rehabilitation of homes is booming in Sarasota County. The paper money machine is fueling accelerating prices.
Beware of the paper money machine: in the end, it is not your friend. The velocity of all that stimulus money can turn into an economic tornado.
What’s up with Rasmussen? They just cam out with a poll claiming Biden is up by 8%. Rasmussen had it basically tied just a week ago.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep30
Maybe Americans don’t like a huge increase in jobs. Have Americans gone mad?
gaslighting
But Rasmussen has been the most, more like only, Trump favorable poll.
What better way to grab your trust and then gaslight you?
use all this to inspire you to encourage others:
VOTE!
In person if at all possible …
PDJT is setting records with Black and Hispanic voters.
Leo Terrell the Black Fox commenter and civil rights lawyer, there are major in roads being made in the Hispanic community.
Brendan Straka and the walk away movement.
As sleepy would say..51% for Biden, and was it 79% Republican support?? “C’mon man”
Pollsters really are an quirky bunch.
If your country does vote for Joe, or he cheats his way in. Look out..Putin, Xi and others will be “ dancing” and expanding at will.
Especially with a leftist congress.
God bless PDJT
You really need to unplug from polling mills, have you ever had a pollster come to your home!?! Republicans or conservatives hang up on Rasmussen and their ilks like Civiqs out California, they keep their intentions closely guarded and act once they’re in the voting booth. Trump campaign camp knows the real numbers, they’ve been knocking on doors before 2016 elections and have continued to date (they never stopped). DNC or the Biden camp have no one on the ground. Trump/Pence2020 super landslide, just do your part and vote in person!
we get phone calls on both (well, maybe hubby has two phones these days…) of our phones every day all day We never answer the call unless we know who it is. The calls are from all over the country. They could be polls…. dunno. I do not do polls.
Same here, Rosemary, and I would bet their are millions more just like us. If the caller ID indicates someone or a number I don’t know, I don’t answer. I figure that if it is a legitimate call, they’ll leave a voicemail and then I can call them back.
Don’t believe Rasmussen. They play the same games as the others. The only poll that really was on the mark for 2016 was the LA Times Dornsife Daily Tracking Poll.
What polls miss would be the Universities and Colleges remote study. If they are not at schools they can’t vote. Just think like Ohio State U with 40K students most of them as Democrats. How the Dems are going to make up for that?
Bingo. +1.0E9!
Here in The OC, deep in The OC, I fully expect the Commie from UCI, Katie Porter, won’t be going back to the Congress because the kiddies at UCI are not at school, hence no way she can ballot harvest her way. I figure the same thing will happen over in Fullerton with their CSUF gone to remote.
BTW, I see lots of signs for Greg Raths all over the place ( I’ve been helping him out since before the primary ), including one on my front yard. But I have only seen ONE sign for Katie Porter. Then you got ZERO for Joe’s Bidet, but two of my neighbors have huge Trump flags. Now, normally, you never see ANY signs on people’s yards, only on the boulevards and main roads. People are PO this year.
You mean that if the students are at home, they’ll only be able to vote once this time. If they were back at school they probably vote in their college town and then cast an absentee ballot for their home town. In 2016, if you went to school in Massachusetts, you could cast both of those votes and then cross over into New Hampshire where they had same day registration, and vote a third time. Trump lost New Hampshire by 2000 votes and there were 70,000 same day registrations. All that was needed to establish residency was a receipt from a hotel the night before. Who do you think most of those 70,000 votes went for?
I hope they keep spewing this kind of drivel–remember that 4 years ago, Hillary had a “96% chance of getting elected”. Yeah, keep lulling the lazy-*** left into staying home-
Anything beyond typing vulgar name calling on their keyboard will cause extreme fatigue.
I agree, I would rather have the polls show Trump down. It does indeed lull the left to stay home. They figure they have it in the bag
Look at the Daily Tracking Poll. It was 52% on Friday and 46% on Monday, 47% on Tues and 46% again today. It is a rolling 3 day average, so I dont know what happened on Friday to cause this drastic of a change. I mean for 2 weeks it was 52-53% and then down to 46% . This concerns me more than the debate. Barrett??????
The tax thing – at least that was what I remember Rasmussen claimed.
One of the reasons they gave was that his job approval rating went down. I suppose some are upset about his pick for SC Justice, who knows why really.
Don’t worry too much. My guess is the polling will show a very tight race closer to the election. Pollsters don’t want their accuracy ratings affected by push polls so they’ll be forced to be more accurate. Giving the Democrats the margin of error, of course
Faking a debate bump.
Wow. I can tell you home building and rehabilitation of homes is booming in Sarasota County. The paper money machine is fueling accelerating prices.
Right now, Landlords, whether house “flippers” with ‘income property’s, or owners of large apt complexes, can’t evict tenants for not paying rent, but Banks can’t foreclose, if they don’t make mortgage payments (due to lack of rents being paid).
This ends, Sept 2021, I think. So, what happens THEN? Have the barstuds used Vivid CHINA virus, to manufacture ANOTHER “2008 style Housing crises”?
A BUNCH of foreclosures, on the horizon?
Been wondering about that myself.
The only way it doesn’t implode is if enough tenants have the rent money on hand AND have obtained or returned to gainful employment so they can continue making rent payments.
Would seem so, but then you know their are some tenants who will game the system, short term thinkers who won’t pay the rent, cause they don’t HAVE to,…
A real mess in the making,…clustered*ck, or intentional?
GB,
The implosion was earlier this year. We’re well on the way to recovery. Try and look at it this way; economically, we’re all in the same system.
Government has no legal authority to keep a person incarcerated in their home or prevent a(n) eviction/foreclosure for non payment. These are actions of voluntary compliance whether you know it or not. We’ve been there done that, Everybody loses in a market collapse. Winners were tired of losing so they chose a different direction for the future. Sore losers refuse to accept their defeat. Too bad. That’s life.
Like Reagan said many years ago, ‘the choice is not right or left, it’s up or (D)own.’
If you want to see a market collapse, watch what happens if the Government ‘takes’ Trillions more out of the private sector in the name of ‘economic stimulus’ at the initial stages of this robust recovery. Someone has to liquidate [stocks, real estate. etc.] those Trillions of $ in order to purchase the ‘newly minted’ next to 0% ROI debt issuance.
Only a Government employee could possibly believe that you can lose your ass on every deal and make it up in volume. [Think negative interest rates]
Useful i[D]iots think that goods and services can be purchased with the magical fruit of the mythical money tree.
Investment capital will seek the the most lucrative legal ROI which is always in the private sector[Main+Wall St.]. Removing Trillions more $ from the capital markets is an economic (D)eath wish. Nobody is going to voluntarily loan any Government $ without a substantial increase in interest rates, which no Government can afford given the current interest paid to service the existing debt.
The only solution is free market capitalism, creating profit [accretive to the value of the dollar] as opposed to Government debt [dilutive to the value of the dollar].
Now, who wants the free market to remain ‘shutdown’?
This is what matters.
Why would they publish a report for Sept if Sept isn’t over?….
It’s for September 30th. Daily tracking poll..
hence the rush to close down again!
Publius2016: Yes, the Steelers vs. Titans football game scheduled for this coming Sunday was postponed, because a few super-healthy, ultra-fit players tested positive for COVID, so, the calls for new shutdowns are only a matter of time.
so stupid…just more social action on nothing burgers…
Shouldn’t be watching sports anyway when the players don’t respect the American flag.
They don’t not have CV-19, just like a gunshot deaths or auto accidents are all auto labeled CV-19 deaths, but what they’re suffering from is the debilitating Kneezal pandemic that hits multi-million dollar over paid national athletes the hardest. There is a cure, but their self importance hinders their kneezal vaccination on their own accord. There is a natural cure also, called the F-U kneezillers forced treatment plan!
wodiej.. I’m with you.
Trump = jobs, jobs, jobs. Everything else flows from economic prosperity.
Biden = jail, lock downs, compelled PPE while hiking alone in the Tetons – or face arrest like that poor girl watching HS football with her mom.
We are a forest products manufacturer in Washington State and I can confirm every thing you have stated SD!
Ornus.. hope you are in NE WA. state…
Speaking of which, there is absolutely no pressure-treated fencing material available in the Hudson Valley. Stuck with repair work for next year, unless someone here has an idea.
Sundance, you are on the money wrt trucking.There appears to be heavy competition to hire truckers. I never saw Walmart run advertising for truckers until the past month.
I just drove from New Jersey back to Florida and I can tell you the interstates were jammed packed with truckers. I worked in the transportation industry my entire life and it was always said that you could tell if the economy was good by the amount of truckers that were on the road. And there are signs on the highways that will pay someone $6,000 for signing up with a trucking company. That is how tight the market is for drivers.
COVID survival rate – 99.98% for population under 50 per Dennis Praeger just now on the radio.
99.5% – for 69 and under.
Tony- regarding Killer Cuomo’s ongoing Covid tyranny, this will give you an idea of what we New Yorkers are up against:
“In a previous call with reporters, Cuomo has said he plans to protect from evictions through the end of the pandemic.
“Until when? Until I say COVID is over. And you know, we’ll figure out when that is,” the governor said.”
So New York state can continue its death spiral until our criminal thug governor says the Scamdemic is over. It breaks my heart to read Sundance’s article about what’s happening elsewhere.
And New York USED TO be the Empire state.
If the United States (what’s left of it) needed an enema, NYS would be the prime orifice.
I think there are a few orafices that would have great impact: NYS, Cali, Illinois. Insertion to either of the three would do wonders.
I would imagine San Franciskovich would be THE prime candidate… after all, the $$$s!!tt tend to congregate there, huh?
Well that is part of Cali. We need more than precise localization. Heh.
Well that is part of Cali. We need more than precise localization. Heh.
Multiple places to stick the nozzle, but the Swamp has to be #1; right down into the Capital bldg, housing CONgress, absolutely FULL of *ssholes and crap.
So, now it’s the Evil Empire State.
The Dumpire State.
And that’s the survival rate. You still have to catch it [.02% of current population has “tested positive” for COVID by dividing 7mil. “cases” [read tested positive for COVID dna in your blood – not sick, hospitalized, no-comorbidity] by 330 mil. US population.
(I know I’m replying to myself)
Facts are stubborn things.
Living a mile from a gravel quarry gives me a barometer on the economy. When I hear them working 2nd shift (I can hear the horns signalling the end of the day), and have to wait while 3 double dumpers pass through the intersection ahead of me, we are not in economic hard times. It was very quiet in ’07 and ’08.
And the realtors and appraisers that I talk to are working their tails off. Homes are selling at more than asking price within 24 hours.
They certainly are here in York County, SC. People like it here , at least in my hood so not many go up for sale, but when they do, they are totally gone in about 4/5 hours. Not kidding. And way over asking price, usually with at least 4/5 full price offers to spur the bidding war.
Looks like President Trump will exceed expectations when the election results come in as well. With people citing fake polls from these same experts who are discredited on a regular basis.
I’m still “concerned” it will be stolen after being fairly won.
Then you don’t understand the type of “Fighting Machine” we have in POTUS and his A-Team.
Not a fair statement or accusation – if it is one.
PDJT has no control over Rinos, the RNC, local Republican so called re-election committees nor the state Democrat controlled election “machines”…….or the media.
His A-Team has an uphill battle. Its us deplorables against the Deep State. My Trump 2020 flag is proudly flying just beneath the Stars and Stripes.
^^^THIS^^^
I agree, the danger is in the local elections and swing states.
I’m in one of the solidest blue states so I donate small amounts to races in the swing ones. Voting down-ballot for every R is crucial.
There will be some shenanigans after the election for sure – could be a Nation of Hanging Chads for a bit – but with solid winning numbers on our side at every level, ACB on the SC to give us an honest majority, and PDJT’s governance – I trust in that fighting machine too.
ACB before the election is not a given. Linda Graham and The Turtle may not be that dependable or capable of handling those expected last minute bombshells against her. Graham does not want to be “tarnished” any worse than his teeth looks so you don’t know what he’ll/she’ll do. And The Turtle may feel torpedoing PDJT is a bigger trophy than another Supreme Court justice. I hope she does get in before though.
Now these FACTS are the sort of details that would shine in a debate; show how powerful the economy is growing faster than expected.
V shaped recovery
NOT K shaped
I know Joey struggles with numbers and the alphabet.
One of the key factors is the expiration of the disincentive via the federal COVID unemployment mechanism that provided an additional $600/month beyond normal earnings in the unemployment package.
THAT’S $600.00 PER WEEK…NOT PER MONTH !
Yes, a $ 15 per hour worker, made more staying home. Plus state unemployment AND no social security tax either
Traveling all over the east coast, my economic indicator is the truck stops and rest areas along the interstates at night. If they are full to the point of overflow, the economy is moving along nicely. There were times in the 2007-2014 time frame when the truck stops and rest areas at night were less than half full. You just knew goods were not moving so the economy was not growing as well.
I have always seen truck volumes on the highways as a key economic indicator. I’m not crazy about having to drive with a lot of trucks, but I recognize that it is a harbinger of a good economy.
Gov Ron DeSantis holds roundtable with Professor Kulldorf (Harvard Medical) and Professor Michael Levitt (Stanford). I liked this line from Professor Kulldorf that kind of sums up the ass backwards approach Democrat and some Republican governors have followed – ” …..it is mostly the working class that is suffering from this – In a sense we are protecting very low risk college students and professionals who can work from home, while we are putting older working class people at risk because they have to work – of course that increases the number of deaths – that’s not a smart public health policy.”
Posted this before, so apologies for the re – post, however I believe it important as many get to see the truth and wider economic and general public health impacts of the blunt force lock down approach – totally scientifically incorrect, and in fact more damaging than the disease.
Once yet Again, the ‘so called, experts”…….are wrong. Everyone must deny truth in anything they hear in the media from this day forward……. All i heard all week to my chagrin that Trumps recovery is hitting the skids……WRONG insert PJT 2016 debate gif here………..
Anecdotal agreement: We were traveling on the interstate Sunday & Monday and I have not seen so much truck traffic in the past 15 years. Heavy truck traffic on Sunday. My experience lately has been very little truck traffic on Sunday. Then Monday morning, it was wall-to-wall big rigs near the intersection of two interstates in western Virginia. The trucks outnumbered the cars by 5:1.
Florida_Frank: Plus, all the long-haul trailers have “Wanted: Truck Drivers” signs on them. There’s a shortage of drivers. Qualified drivers (clean record, some experience) are hard to find.
Probably why stores are still low on stock.
One in custody for the early Sept ambush of two deputies in LA.
Good.
In my recent travels I have seen a lot of RVs on the road. RVs and boats have been doing very well this summer as forms of socially distant recreation.
Go Donny, Go Donny, Go! Donny be good!
*insert screaming guitar solo here*
I travel across the country as well and concur with SD observations. Also a recent article on train hauling relayed high prices moving freight from west to east.
Bottom line Congress tried everything to crush Trump and the economy….they failed.
So many trucks on the road… well, traffic must suck.
OTOH, I went up to Pasadena the other day to pick up my new badge. The foolish in car NAVI told me to take the 210-2-5 through the East LA interchange. I was planning to take the 210-57-5-55 because my phone told me it was mostly clear. But the NAVI said that traffic was light… so like a fool I did. 15 minutes later, too late to change route, the damn thing finally figures it out that there is traffic and it took me an hour and a half to come down. Which, btw, is VERY light at 3PM on a Monday, with no accidents.
So overall, traffic on the LA basin is relatively light.
I agree with SD completely. I live in the South. I have never seen more people moving into this area, mostly from the north east. The housing builders can not build houses fast enough. No sooner are they built than someone is moving in. Unfortunately many of these new residents bring their politics with them.
I think this is part of the plandemic. Chase people out of certain areas and flood the red areas with commies.
Blue.. You may have a very good point. (but, of course, that’s a conspiracy theory) You know we haven’t had a good conspiracy in a while. /sarc.
We have been seeing this in our area, Hudson Valley, NY, for about three years.
Thanks for your update. This is proof we do not need anymore extended unemployment nor $1200 checks.
Except here in California where the scumbag governor keeps playing covid games. We got a piddly 2 months PPP (very small amount) even though the business dropped way below 50% and stayed that way until this last month, when things finally started to slowly pick back up. Still way, way, down. Can’t get out of this crap state fast enough and we are both Cali natives.
“The disconnect amid a ground reality compared to business reporting and financial media is actually stunning.”
GIGO
Remember the “financial media” hires many of the “journalists” who USED TO work at failing and failed newspapers, magazines, failed “news” websites, etc.
Here in western Maine, home improvement companies are swamped with more work than they can handle. Most are now scheduling jobs in early 2021. I talked to one contractor who does business mostly in Rangeley area….according to him…home prices are back up to where they were several years ago and even the houses in sad shape are selling for high prices. His clients are, by far, people “from away”…a term used by native Mainers to refer to interlopers from elsewhere. A realtor friend in CT complains of lack of inventory of houses for sale and a friend on Cape Cod says its a sellers market there too. Escape from NY is happening. Lanny Davis states in a recent tweet, that all of New England will be scooped in in secession along with CA, Washington, Oregon, NY and I forget what other states. Maine district 2 is pro Trump….might have our own local civil war.
Would that it could be resolved by “Blue” states simply succeeding.
Unfortunately, red state vs blue state is a myth, perpetrated by media, pollsters, etc.
It’s blue AREAS, which are large, metropolitan areas, vs red areas, which are anywhere, in almost any state, that is OUTSIDE the cities.
And yes, I am concerned that Dem policies in big cities are driving the enemy out amongst us. Most of these TDS idiots aren’t self aware enough to recognise they are fleeing the natural, inevitable consequences of the policies they continue to support, so they are bringing their plague with them.
Screw a China virus test or vaccine, we need a TDS test and vaccine. Yes, lead injections IS a successful treatment that kills the patient.
Being a born and bred CT Yankee, I’m more than aware of red vs blue areas within a state. Maine has same issues….coatal areas being turned into playground for the rich and driving out the working class families. Catholic Charities has imported roughly 10,000 Somali nationals into Portland and Lewiston and they have not assimilated. Had another few hundred illegals from the Congo brought in last year to Portland. But honestly its the folks from MA…aka Massholes…that are going to ruin Maine.
Between importation from 3rd world sh*t holes, and the public indoctrination system cranking them out like massive factories working 3 shifts, they ARE trying to engage in genocide, killing us all off, every way they can, and marginalising us in the meantime.
Cape Cod a seller’s market? The New York Times had an article last year quoting a dozen scientists who said that the entire East Coast of the United States would be under water in 10 years. New York City was going to build dykes around Manhattan? Maybe Obama didn’t see the article when he bought a $15 million beachfront home on Martha’s Vinyard a few months ago?
nobody has said the new buyers are intelligent people. At this point, I believe those in NYC are looking to move to a safer place…Cape Cod is idyllic until a hurricane comes through. I suspect northern Maine real estate, including The County, will be a buyers market in a few years once interlopers realize they are not cut out to handle a Maine winter….snowflakes that they are.
Ive been a concrete construction contractor since 1984. I have never witnessed a boom of this magnitude. In fact this is orders of magnitude larger than the dot com boom in the 90s, the previous high water mark in my trade and location. It is truly stunning.
My payroll has increased 30% since April. But it is not because Ive hired a ton of new workers. I am hiring but there arent people ringing my phone off the hook looking for work. My increased payroll is due simply to the fact I dont want to lose the people I have.
There is a road I drive down nearly every day in a small outer exburb of Detroit. For about 2 miles on both sides of the road there are numerous light industrial and commercial enterprises. Nearly everyone has help wanted signs out. From computer techs to millwrights. Machinists, cnc lathe operators and cad/cam. Roofers and carpenters. Electricians and caterers. HiLo drivers and laborers. Truck drivers, UAW, Operating engineers. Excavators and clerks. The full spectrum of economic opportunity.
Detroit doesnt have the exodus as other large tyrant run cities are seeing. Police Chief James Craig and Mayor Mike Duggan have done a very good job keeping chaos in check. So these jobs arent due to mass migration away from the Dem shitholes, they are jobs created by President Trump and his teams economic acumen.
Thank you for posting these graphs!
I traveled from Denver to Wendover, UT/NV last week, I-25 north to I-80 west through WY, UT and into NV on Tuesday, back on Friday., 650 miles each way. Never seen so much truck traffic before!
Every town and city I traveled through had lots of construction going on too.
In Colorado they can’t build homes fast enough to meet the demand. Pre-owned homes sell almost immediately and above the asking price. Bidding wars are common.
Denver is attempting to lift the occupancy restriction limiting single family homes to two unrelated adults. They want to allow five unrelated adults in homes under 2000 square feet and ten unrelated adults in homes over 2000 square feet. No restriction on number of kids. They claim it’s because of the housing crunch, but this is really Agenda 21 BS. Residents are fighting it, it would be a nightmare of not enough parking, too much trash and noise, insufficient infrastructure and overcrowding in schools.
Is it possible that changing residency restrictions is in response to more people doing short term rentals via AirBnb and other sites?
PDJT is bringing back our economy BIGLY!
This analysis is spot on, Sundance. The explosiveness is amazing. We are feeling it big time in TN. Once we finish he COVID caper the tourism sector will complete its rebound. Real estate prices are jumping and inventory is low. New builds are increasing at a fast rate and construction workers are in big demand. Car lots need used cars badly, but they need new vehicle inventory to help drive the supply. America would be insane to turn its back on what has been set in place by our VSGPOTUS and the wolverines.