CTH analyzes data to assemble unemotional models that reflect/predict outcomes.  If this type of government mandate expands much further, there WILL be rationing – it is an inescapable conclusion.  It’s not a matter of “if“, it’s a matter of when… where… and how.

Perhaps that explains all the National Guard deployments and pre-staging:

Kansas/Missouri – Today the CORE 4 partners of Jackson County, Missouri; Johnson County, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri, and the Unified Government of Wyandotte County/Kansas City, Kansas, based on the urgency of the COVID-19 public health emergency and the imminent rapid progression of the pandemic in our area, announce that beginning Tuesday, March 24, residents will be directed to stay at home except for essential needs.

All jurisdictions will issue orders that will stay in effect for 30 days from the effective date of March 24, with consideration after 30 days of whether to prolong these orders beyond that date, based on public health and critical care metrics available at that time.

Examples of essential businesses and services that will remain open during this time period include critical government services, infrastructure projects, childcare, healthcare, grocery stores, pharmacies, and delivery/carry-out/drive-through services from restaurants. Additional details are forthcoming.

The chief elected officer and medical directors for each jurisdiction will hold a joint news conference tomorrow, March 22 at 1:00 p.m. at Union Station, where more details will be made available. (read more).

When you hear the words “non-essential” consider…. The food supply chain requires constant supplies of: oil, packaging (and all ancillary), cardboard (and all ancillary), paper, recycling, steel, plastics, stone, hydraulics, rubber, parts to repair machinery, fabric, cotton, mechanics, data analysts, communication experts, accountants, actuaries, refrigeration, coolant, glass, wood, barrels, tanks, trucks, and much more…

Whatever “it” is may seem “non-essential” until you start to realize it is part of a massive and complex ancillary input system into a very complex sector of the economy. Remove one component and the system, already under considerable strain, can freeze or slow….

That’s where “rationing” comes in.