Mini-mike Bloomberg is viable for the Club if they can run him as a candidate that no-one has to actually see, hear, or get to know…. However, after two debates with Bloomberg included, his support is dropping like a rock.
…”His national debate debut in Las Vegas last week laid bare his vulnerabilities around race and gender and gave many voters their first glimpse of his irritability. The performance short-circuited his rise in polling, and he has since made no headway against frontrunner Bernie Sanders in delegate-rich California, a state he was counting on. In addition, there are signs of a revival for Joe Biden in South Carolina this weekend — an outcome that would upset Bloomberg’s plan to seize on his demise as moderates search for a replacement to him.” (link)
Monmouth’s Patrick Murray is a well known Big Club pollster. According to his construct the Club’s blitzkrieg on Fidel Sanders paid off. However, once people got to see the Clubs’ alternative, Bloomberg, the voter aversion to mini-mike ended up with a retreat to support Biden; at least in South Carolina.
Going into Super Tuesday Bernie’s coalition might be slightly smaller than before the Club started the sunlight upon his radical assembly; but the support level is enough to keep him as frontrunner. Bernie is the candidate for the Occupy Wall Street, Antifa, Socialists and Revolutionary Communist groups within the Democrat party. While the ‘never-bernie’ voting block is even more fractured over five candidates.
Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar and to a lesser extent Steyer, are all splitting the ‘never-bernie’ bloc. The Club’s hope for Bloomberg has diminished as more democrat voters see him in action and his support drops. Conversely, as Bloomberg support drops Biden support increases, but not enough to surpass Bernie.
South Carolina may be a boost for Biden heading into Super Tuesday; a worse case scenario for those who built the Bloomberg roadmap.
It is still too soon to say a brokered convention is most likely; and it will be after Super Tuesday when that possibility can be best considered; however, it does look like the odds of a brokered convention are increasing.