Unofficial Emissary – Michael Pillsbury Heads to China…

The dance with the dragon is a complex geopolitical relationship between two large economies. China’s view within the dynamic is shaped by their own internal ideology and outlook.  The panda mask dynamic was/is strategic and has served them well for decades; but now President Trump -while engaging a structural confrontation- has used the panda strategy against Beiing’s interests.  China is flummoxed.

Each of President Trump’s trade team members have a specific role; each member also has a specific opponent within the dance:

♦Peter Navarro is the blue-collar hawk. He focuses on the the administration’s Wall Street adversaries; and the U.S. multinationals -American companies- who have aligned their interests with Beijing.  Navarro’s focus is internal to U.S. interests.  Navarro confronts  U.S. corporations, Wall Street interests, who are working against Main Street.

♦Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin carries the economic financial weapons (represents the dollar), and he faces toward global adversaries (IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank etc.) who have also aligned their interests with Beijing and the status quo.

♦Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, coordinates the punitive actions that keep Beijing in a position of compromise.  Ross reviews prior agreements, trade legal specifics, searches through contractual obligations and ultimately controls the tariffs, if/when triggered by President Trump. Secretary Ross faces down the World Trade Organization (WTO).

♦U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is the contract writer; the primary negotiator; and he is at the center of the trade group where the details are constructed. Lighthizer writes the terms based on the objectives of President Trump.  Only POTUS approves the new agreements.

♦White House Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow is the explainer, the trade diplomat. The communication bridge between what is happening in the big picture and what the subsequent consequences mean.  Chairman Kudlow is to remain affable, optimistic and approachable by any interests who have concerns.  The PR guy.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones”

~ Machiavelli

Navarro, Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer bear the economic teeth.  After all, their job is serious… they have all the confrontational challenges… they face those who want to stop President Trump’s global trade reset.  Their goal is to ‘change the status-quo‘ toward greater reciprocity for the U.S. and to stop the one-sided nature from decades of trade agreements which eroded the U.S. middle-class.  Because their objective is change, they face the adversaries head-on. Their tasks make them targets. This group are hard men.

Kudlow is the soft-one. That’s his job. Be approachable by those who don’t like confrontation.  Kudlow calms nerves and keeps the nellies‘ less nervous.

Within this dance, there is an important place where East/West negotiations require respect.  The panda mask is part of the dynamic, perhaps the cunning and positioning part, but beyond the mask actual terms need respect from both parties.

Beijing violated that central component of respect in May, 2019, when they rebuked the terms of an agreement that were 80 percent negotiated and accepted by their own emissary.  China is paying the price for that violation now.  They likely did not anticipate the severity of punishment, now they are living with consequences.

President Trump has delivered punishment but continued to praise the opponent in hopes of encouraging Chairman Xi to rethink the dragon position.

There are many U.S. hawks celebrating the pain within China; and some of those same voices are calling for continued policy that will lead to the collapse of the central Chinese communist government.  That ain’t going to happen.

If there are going to be terms, there needs to be a middle position.  President Trump has always expressed hope that terms can be reached; however, he has also expressed pragmatically that successful terms likely involve too much loss for Beijing to accept.

President Trump has done all he can to encourage U.S. multinationals to think about the impossibility of structural change in Beijing against the severity of their own experiences.  In essence President Trump has warned U.S. companies to plan for the worst, and get out.

The complaints from U.S. and allied interests about Chinese trade practices are not likely be fixed; the issue is structural.  China will not change the structure of their totalitarian controlled economic model.  They are communists.

However, that said, within this ongoing dance there needs to be panda dialogue – because the global downsides are severe….  Enter Michael Pillsbury:

.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Big Government, China, Communist, Decepticons, Deep State, Donald Trump, Economy, European Union, Hong Kong, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

168 Responses to Unofficial Emissary – Michael Pillsbury Heads to China…

  1. Raised on Reagan says:

    Isolation415, foreign companies with operations in China do not own those factories, warehouses, machinery. inventory, logical offices, and accumulated capital. They are minority investors with their Chinese partners who do own it.

    Liked by 4 people

    • WRB says:

      Yes, all foreign companies must partner with a Chinese company in a joint venture. That is not the best, you say, but we can live with that, right? But apparently once the Chinese learn the business and trade secrets, a 100% Chinese-owned competitor springs up, (somehow- meaning with hidden subsidies) undersells the original joint venture and drives it out of business. China is left with its own company. Now pick a new industry, rinse and repeat.

      In other words, to quote a post up above, the Chinese will take it from them anyway.

      Liked by 9 people

      • VoteAllIncumbantsOut says:

        What sickened me was the fact I informed many people since 2009 about the Chinese way of doing business but back then, I was a conspiracy theorist so they said. I’m just glad PDJT exposed it for what is.

        Thanks POTUS….

        Like

  2. GB Bari says:

    If you’ve been following this story, you might recall that President Trump has been renegotiating trade agreements with the other ASEAN nations as well as Mexico. Yes, he understood your #2 option long before he first met with China.

    Liked by 7 people

  3. MicD says:

    Well done Sundance: “Kudlow is the soft-one. That’s his job. Be approachable by those who don’t like confrontation. Kudlow calms nerves and keeps the nellies‘ less nervous.” –
    Counterpoise to the TEETH !

    Liked by 3 people

  4. Bob says:

    The plan is for these companies to come up with….remember, they didn’t hesitate when they left the America worker out in the cold, for short term goals. It will take time….but not to long…..also, remember the number of small companies that lost their complete investment and tangible assets. China would drop on you like a bug…..as GE and a few of the Big Guys that are sweaty their positions. MAGA…

    Liked by 1 person

  5. A2 says:

    Mr Pillsbury gets most things right in this interview, but I think it is more for the domestic audience,

    The Comrades know that Bolton or Bannon do not speak for the President. It’s just ‘pointing at the Mulberry tree to revile the Ash’.

    They see the President as unpredictable (by their standards). What the real purpose of the visit is not revealed. However the Wexin posting ( I mentioned previously) holds some keys. I have some idea as to what the purpose is.

    Liked by 4 people

    • SwampRatTerrier says:

      Agree, agree.

      Like

    • Dutchman says:

      A great strategy for poker, chess or any contest (war) is to be seen by your opponent as “unpredictable”.

      Would much prefer goung up against a well trained opponent in deadly combat, than a rank amatuer.

      I KNOW,what the well trained opponents options are, and can be prepared to counter them.

      Thecrank amatuer scares the Hell out if me, cause I have NO IDEA what they might do!
      LOL!

      Liked by 2 people

      • SwampRatTerrier says:

        So the Communist Chinese must be scared witless!!!!!!!!

        RE: “Thecrank amatuer scares the Hell out if me, cause I have NO IDEA what they might do!”

        Like

        • Dutchman says:

          Yeah, I think so. Would YOU want to get in a poker game with PDJT? I sure wouldn’t.

          But, I DO love watching him play, and don’t mind a bit that I put all my $, along with many others, into a pot to ‘bank’ him, so he could get in this game!

          Like

      • Stillwater says:

        Adding to your thoughts…

        If Trump’s ultimate goal is for no deal then having Bannon outside the administration putting out a different view as to what Trump’s objectives are with regard to China… keeps/delays China from wanting to make a deal. Which would play into Trumps ultimate “no deal decoupling” objective. Assuming that is indeed Trump’s ultimate goal.

        Like

        • Dutchman says:

          Its my belief that no deal is the goal, and I’m not alone. He IS a VSG, but the village,IDIOT knows you can’t make a deal with this regime.

          Fentanyl, slavery (‘Human trafficking’, they are behind it), and all the rest. There,consistent behavior of renegging on promises.

          And, objectively that to agree to PDJT’s terms, and live up to it, would mean the end of the regime.
          But, he couldn’t just come out on day one, and order a decoupling from China.
          So, he says renegotiate.
          And yes, I think China really has no clue.
          I don’t think he’s going to make a,’deal’ with the,EU, either. I’m not absolutely convinced he wants USMCA.
          He points out how everyone ELSE wants it; Farmers, Unions, but he doesn’t say “I want it”.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Agree Dutchman:
            ZERO Multilateral Deals … they’re UNENFORCEABLE short of TERMINATION!
            NO USMCA or EU Deal as his end game.

            🤔 Keep ordering the D-rats to pass USMCA so they won’t.

            Then cancel NAFTA.

            They can ponder whether to give POTUS USMCA or invite a Republican Congress!

            When it passes, POTUS then announces that Canada’s OUT for failure to ratify in 1 year!

            Canada gets RECIPROCAL TARIFFS as they start over with ZERO LEVERAGE.

            He uses Tariff Receipts to keep USA victims whole.

            ALL deals then go BILATERAL: Simpler, clean and readily ENFORCEABLE!

            Like

            • Dutchman says:

              And the sweet deal is, every time he does publically URGE passage, he makes it LESS likely, because it appears to raise the stakes, and make the Democrats who want to “give him no victory” dig in harder.
              Lol, its a deliscious trap!

              Liked by 1 person

              • It sure as hell is, Dutch.
                The moment it passes, he announces they SURRENDERED.

                Like

                • Dutchman says:

                  Puts Nancy in an impossible situation; if she doesn’t pass it, she p.o.’s Unions, CoC, and,…well everybody.
                  If she passes it, she ‘hands Trump a victory’, and will be accused of giving him reelection, especially by the AOC wing.
                  And, if there,IS any manufactured slow down in the economy, he can blame her failure to pass.
                  Dems reach a concensus plan, and then STICK to it.

                  Their plan, obviously is to generate NO legislation in the House, that can give “Trump” a win.

                  Yeah, well good luck with that, Nancy! PDJT is hanging that promise around your neck, like a dead albatross.

                  And people STILL think that “We” lost the House, when the gavel passed from Ryan to Pelosi?
                  Nancy is the gift that keeps on giving!

                  Like

  6. MVW says:

    China failed under Mao Communism. China has advanced only on the back of capitalism in the world through trade, or more appropriately, selling products to capitalistic economies.

    So, China has to convince the world that they have indeed abandoned Mao and the violence of Mao, that China is not merely feigning respectful behavior. China can’t disrespect Hong Kong freedoms and expect the world to trust China’s intentions towards the world. Moreover, China’s reluctance to make a fair deal shows no respect to the US (& therefore the world).

    Bolton & Bannon say that China Communists are Mao Communists by the nature of Communism. Trying to turn that around to say we are the ones that can’t be trusted misses hundreds of millions of Chinese dead, imprisoned, subjugated in the past by China itself.

    Further, is China paying lip service to Trump until they get a softer opponent in the future? Backing out of what was agreed before indicates that. Trust ‘Ball’ is in China’s court, not the reverse.

    Like

    • SAM-TruthFreedomLiberty says:

      The whole world is riding on America’s back since WW2..

      Europe would’ve never been able to sustain their unrealistic social programs if we wouldn’t pay the bill somewhere under the mantle of alliances and 1 way trade..
      Inhuman Asian societies and their treatment of workers wouldn’t be possible without us buying their cheap shit over and over again..
      Mexican cartels would not exist without Americans buying their drugs..
      Middle eastern terror financiers wouldn’t be thriving without us buying their oil..

      We truly have the power to heal the world by focusing on ourselves and being the best example of liberty, freedom and ingenuity we can be.
      Other countries would’ve no other option than lifting their people and societies up.
      The Chinese oppressive communist rule will crumble if they can’t steal from our ideas.

      Trump is going into that direction.

      Liked by 7 people

  7. ristvan says:

    I don’t think Michael Pillsbury is an unofficial emissary for PDJT and team.
    He is at the think tank Hudson Institute, where he is the Director of the Center for Chinese Strategy. His job credibility requires occasional time on the ground in China gathering first hand facts and impressions. First Beijing, then Hong Kong. Then return and write reports for paying clients.
    Any other role potentially undercuts PDJT’s trade team, while potentially confusing China’s team.

    Liked by 5 people

  8. dustahl says:

    Pillsbury said on Lou Dobbs that he worked for Trump as an advisor

    Liked by 4 people

  9. Brant says:

    For comparison purposes, can we get a picture group of the similar people for the prior 2-3 admins? Say back to Clinton? I suppose we can do ourselves, but would be nice to have compiled here in one place.

    Like

  10. Right to reply says:

    Am I going gaga, or did the blog layout change? Everything is white! I’m an old timer, and I get confused by such things

    Like

  11. scrap1ron says:

    Considering the decades of economic harm these multi-national companies have deliberately inflicted on the American working class, and their depraved indifference toward us, (“white working class communities deserve to die” *National Review*) I don’t give a rat’s ass if they lose everything. I was born and raised in one of those communities they despise and live there to this day. I experienced this destruction of our manufacturing workforce first hand, starting with my own father. I’m not alone either, there are millions of us from the flyover rust belt communities.

    What goes around comes around. There will be no going back from MAGA. We won’t stand for it.

    Liked by 4 people

  12. Atomic Hillbilly says:

    Good cop/bad cop

    For all of China’s scheming, they never considered the need to fortify their demographic flanks.

    Probably because they can’t.

    Bannon’s rhetoric is a good counterbalance that puts the squeeze on Beijing’s nads.

    Trump is holding all the face cards.
    Xi will have to capitulate sooner or later.

    Like

  13. Devil in the Blue Drapes says:

    Oh dear. Another indictment of a Chinese couple caught stealing trade secrets prior to opening a business in China (2015) without US company knowledge.

    Like

    • A2 says:

      The PRC has been building a massive database on US citizens. This arrest stops one source.

      You think they just steal IP and trade secrets? No, they steal everything, they weaponise everything and that is the end game.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Devil in the Blue Drapes says:

        Good lord, you “think” anyone here who posts a DOJ/AG announcement of yet another indictment regarding Chinese spies is that thick headed?

        Look, most of us are well aware of the infiltration of our universities, tech research & development firms, State Dept, heck even Congress, to name a few.

        But if you think alerting (posting) a DOJ announcement, of which MOST people aren’t signed up to receive, nor make the “news” is a sign of naivete, your assumption(s) are not grounded in reality.

        Like

  14. Thanks SD for your analysis. You’re writings should be mandatory for high school world economics classes.

    Liked by 2 people

  15. trapper says:

    Let’s take some strategic quotes from Sundance and put them in a different order.

    “[President Trump] expressed pragmatically that successful terms likely involve too much loss for Beijing to accept.”

    “The complaints from U.S. and allied interests about Chinese trade practices are not likely be fixed; the issue is structural. China will not change the structure of their totalitarian controlled economic model. They are communists.”

    “President Trump has warned U.S. companies to plan for the worst, and get out.”

    But then we get this conclusion:

    “… the collapse of the central Chinese communist government … ain’t going to happen.”

    I do not entirely agree with this conclusion. The communist government is ruthless. If the economy collapses and it can’t feed all of its people, they would have no qualms about simply making a few million Chinese disappear. But this is not 1968, and Xi isn’t Mao. Too many Chinese have had a taste of the West, a glimpse outside the wall. Would they passively take it? I posit that it is entirely possible that the communist government WILL collapse under the weight of a popular revolt against a failed and unsustainable economy, much like the uncollapsible Soviet government collapsed.

    We shall see. Interesting times.

    Like

  16. jeans2nd says:

    Dr Pillsbury said he was going to Communist China to try to soothe some frazzled Communist Chinese’ nerves caused by the likes of Bannon and Bolton.

    Listening to the first part of Bannon’s speech posted here yesterday would explain why.
    We all listened to the second half of Bannon’s speech. Guaranteed the CCCP listened to the first half of Bannon’s speech. The first half of Bannon’s speech was worrisome, even for some Americans, those Americans who care naught for any war with Communist China other than economic. Bolton’s neo-con war outlook and his part in the Iraq war is well-known.

    It is well-known that Dr Pillsbury advises Pres Trump. And there is no doubt whatsoever that the CCCP is fully aware of the stance of the Hudson Institute, the think tank with which Dr Pillsbury is affiliated. Hudson was the only American institution this year that publicly remembered Tienanmen Square in May.

    God speed Dr Pillsbury, keep him safe in his travels and grant him success in his endeavor.

    Liked by 1 person

    • SwampRatTerrier says:

      Thanks Jean.

      From what you relayed, Dr Pillsbury may worry the Communist Chinese even more!

      Like

    • trapper says:

      Everything Bannon said in his speech, both the part presented here and the first part you refer to that probably worried the Chicoms, was true and accurate. This is not the time to go all wobbly and let up on them. No two-step process. The Chicoms should understand the only hope they have to save their regime is to agree to the deal PDJT wants, on the terms he wants for America, and that if they won’t agree to it they can go choke. Hopefully THAT is the message Mr. Pillsbury is being sent to deliver, perhaps along with a tape of Mr. Bannon’s ENTIRE speech just in case they missed it.

      Screw China. They destroyed middle class America. They destroyed my home town.
      Now it’s their turn. Take the deal or go spit.

      Like

      • jeans2nd says:

        Did Communist China force anyone to move their industries to Communist China?
        No.
        The CCP did not destroy your hometown. The globalist Americans chasing a fast buck destroyed your jobs, your family, your hometown and my hometown.

        Communist China is not my concern. America is. The Americans need to bring our jobs and OUR dignity back. Then they may all go spit.

        Like

  17. joemaga says:

    As a former real estate developer in N.W. Jersey, to see the way this President operates, I can’t help but smile

    Like

  18. Richard Whitney says:

    >>some …voices are calling for continued policy that will lead to the collapse of the central Chinese communist government. That ain’t going to happen.<<
    Maybe the entire central government doesn't collapse. But Xi might have his own in-house problems.

    Like

  19. Am I the only one who noticed that there wasn’t anything mentioned about Pillsbury in the article but his name and “emissary”.

    Like

  20. spoogels says:

    This naysayer says tariffs wont help
    But hes right about the fact that globalism did hand it to China on a plate

    It began way before Trump
    Maybe tax the hell out of corporations who moved their manufacturing to China

    What Globalism Did Was To Transfer The US Economy To China

    WE WANT IT BACK
    ASAP

    https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2019/08/21/what-globalism-did-was-to-transfer-the-us-economy-to-china/

    Like

  21. Rynn69 says:

    Good article, Sundance.

    Like

  22. nofreelunch says:

    Travel to any socialist oriented country, and you will find a relatively small middle class. That was the goal of Obama and his globalist ilk, to shrink the American middle class, until everybody is “equal”, except the elites of course. PDJT understood this and is reversing it.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s