Despite the good news, the insufferable MSM are still trying to bury the cause and effect. In an effort to give a more precise picture I’m going to use a Reuters summary, and shift their text location to highlight what they bury and emphasize what they avoid:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, notching its quickest pace in more than two years, and there are signs that the momentum was sustained at the start of the third quarter.
Gross domestic product increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the April-June period, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Wednesday. The upward revision from the 2.6 percent pace reported last month reflected robust consumer spending as well as strong business investment.
Growth last quarter was the strongest since the first quarter of 2015 and followed a 1.2 percent pace in the January-March period. Economists had expected that second-quarter GDP growth would be raised to a 2.7 percent rate.
♦[…] Businesses helped to carry the economy in the second quarter, with spending on equipment jumping at a rate of 8.8 percent. ♦[…] Trade added two-tenths of a percentage point to growth. ♦[…] Government spending contracted for a second straight quarter. ♦[…] Housing was a drag on growth in the last quarter, with investment on home building contracting at a 6.5 percent rate.
[INFLATION] Despite the acceleration in consumer spending, inflation remained benign in the second quarter. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased at a 0.9 percent rate as previously reported.
Last quarter’s rise was the slowest in more than two years and followed a 1.8 percent rate of increase in the first quarter. The gross domestic purchases price index, another measure of inflation pressures in the economy, increased at a 0.8 percent rate as reported last month.
[…] Other data on Wednesday showed private employers ramped up hiring in August, adding 237,000 jobs to their payrolls. That was up from 201,000 jobs in July.
The ADP National Employment Report was released ahead of the government’s more comprehensive employment report on Friday, which is expected to show solid job gains in August and diminishing labor market slack. (Reuters report)
2016 […] Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of an upcoming economic lag; which, rather remarkably I would add, is a very interesting dynamic.
Think about these engines doing a turn about and beginning a rapid reverse. GDP can, and in my opinion, will, expand quickly. However, any interest rate hikes (fiscal policy) intended to cool down that expansion -fearful of inflation- will take a long time to traverse the divide.
Additionally, inflation on durable goods will be insignificant – even as international trade agreements are renegotiated. Why? Simply because the originating nations of those products are going to go through the same type of economic detachment described above.
Those global manufacturing economies will first respond to any increases in export costs (tariffs etc.), by driving their own productivity higher as an initial offset, in the same manner American workers went through in the past two decades. The manufacturing enterprise and the financial sector remain focused on the pricing.
♦ Inflation on imported durable goods sold in America, while necessary, will ultimately be minimal during this initial period; and expand more significantly as time progresses and off-shored manufacturing finds less and less ways to be productive. Over time, durable good prices will increase – but it will come much later.
♦ Inflation on domestic consumable goods ‘may‘ indeed rise at a faster pace. However, it can be expected that U.S. wage rates will respond faster, naturally faster, than any fiscal policy influence because inflation on fast-turn consumable goods becomes re-coupled to the ability of wage rates to afford them.
The fiscal policy impact lag, caused by the distance between federal fiscal action and the domestic Main Street economy, will now work in our favor. That is, in favor of the middle-class. (full outline)
♦The Modern Third Dimension in American Economics – HERE
♦The “Fed” Can’t Figure out the New Economics – HERE
♦The “Fed” is Powerless To Control Inflation – HERE
♦Proof “America-First” has disconnected Main Street from Wall Street – HERE
♦Treasury Secretary Mnuchin begins creating a Parallel Banking System – HERE
♦How Trump Economic Policy is Interacting With The Stock Market – HERE
♦How Multinationals have Exported U.S. Wealth – HERE
♦How 4 or 5% GDP Growth is Entirely NOT Difficult – HERE