Florida Data, Ballots, and Ground Reports: Latino Vote Supports Patrone’ Impact…

In any analysis of Florida voting the Latino cultural impact is most often mis-identified by the media, 2016 is no exception.  While the MSM is correctly identifying an up-swing in Latino Florida early voting, the MSM is also mistakenly inferring this to be a pro-Clinton narrative.

trump-sarasota-2

Those who live and work within Florida will quickly note there is a wide cultural disparity amid Hispanic and Latino voters.  This is not a monolithic group.  Approximately half of the Latino population in Florida have an ideology that is specifically favorable to Donald Trump, that is called the “Patrone’ Effect“: A strong cultural association with a strong (male) paternal role model.

While it is true culturally the Puerto Rican base is favorable to Hillary Clinton, the South American and Cuban vote is not analogous.  Nor is the Mexican voting bloc identifiable with either PR, Cuban or South American.  Each group is NOT interchangeable.

It is absurdly common for this reality to be misunderstood by business interests and the media.  Whether this misunderstanding is accidental, naivete’ or intentionally done for ideological broadcast purposes is essentially a moot point; the truth is divergent from the MSM presentation.

That said, when looking at Florida analytically the lines between Democrat, Republican and Independent must be factored within the nature of a “closed primary” system.  This became especially evident this year in Florida as competency cuts across all ethnic and cultural distinctions.

While Florida is indeed a microcosm of national sentiment via a regional demographic made up of a similar patchwork to the larger U.S., – Florida, in the aggregate outlook, is not as fractured as the whole nation when it comes to voter priorities and importance.  The ECONOMY is always the leading issue in FL, period.

FLEPOREBLOG drills down into the voting data as the early voting comes to a close.

trump-sarasota-1

(Via FLEPOREBLOG) Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting as of November 7th 2016: 66,679 more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of November 6th

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦  Rep: 1,047,119 (+3,536 from 11/6)
♦  DEM: 980,440 (+6,305 from 11/6)
Other: 64,338 (+305 from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 457,756 (+3,340 from 11/6)
Total Returned: 2,549,653 (+13,486 from 11/6)

#Trump(Rep): 41.1% (same from 11/6)
#HRC(Dem): 38.5% (+0.1 from 11/6)
Other: 2.5% (same from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 18.0% (+0.1% from 11/6)

154,691 (+52,617 from 11/6) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 11/6 (4.0% Lead up from 2.8% on 11/5 (+1.2%})

Early Voting (Only)

♦  Rep: 1,425,312 (+66,028 from 11/6)
♦  DEM: 1,580,003 (+118,645 from 11/6)
Other: 89,988 (+5,366 from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 779,639 (+68,971 from 11/6)
Total Voted: 3,874,942 (+259,010 from 11/6)

#Trump(Rep): 36.8% (-0.8% from 11/6)
#HRC(Dem): 40.8% (+0.4% from 11/6)
Other: 2.3% (same from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 20.1% (+0.4% from 11/6)

You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE

Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.

NEW AXIOM POLL AS OF 11/3: The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released today (taken 11/3), 83% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 83% of Republicans are voting for Trump (THIS IS VERY CONSERVATIVE). 12% of Republicans are voting for HRC while 13% of Democrats are voting for Trump.

Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) have been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 11/3, Trump has 44% of Independents while HRC only has 41% of Independents (Very conservative but we will roll with it. If we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as following in the votes mailed and early voted so far:

♦ R: 2,052,118 (R voting for Trump) + 332,858 (D voting for Trump) + 612,357 (I & O voting for Trump) = 2,997,333 Total Votes

♦ D: 2,125,168 (D voting for HRC) + 296,692 (R voting for HRC) + 570,606 (I & O voting for HRC) = 2,992,466 Total Votes

Total Votes for either candidate – 5,989,799

Total Votes for ALL (which I used to derive the %s below) candidates – 6,424,595

♦ Trump = 46.65%
♦ HRC = 46.58%
Margin = 0.07 for Trump

Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking into account the following factors:

Gary Johnson – R: 2% D: 0% I: 7%
Someone else – R: 1% D: 1% I: 3%
Undecided – R: 1% D: 3% I: 6%

This is YUGE because Obama won early voting in FL by 5 points in 2012 and after election night he won the state by less than 1 point. (link)

Folks, based on what we have data wise so far, I can now soundly say that we will win FL. FLORIDA IS DONE! Republicans in the state of Florida are traditionalists. They wait for Election Day to vote since many are elderly.

florida-voter-registration-history-1

From my own perspective, connected to thousands of Florida voters, the “independent” (non affiliated) voter, as well as from the prior regional polling conducted earlier in this election cycle, shows at a minimum a 10 point break in favor of Donald Trump.

Summary, yes there are more Hispanic (Floridians don’t like that term) voters participating in the early Florida voting cycle, but that doesn’t bode well for Clinton.   Cuban-Americans are at least 10 points more favorable toward Donald Trump.  When combined with the difference in Independent voter support (again 10 points pro-Trump), and added to the Dem cross-over vote for Trump – the election outcome in Florida gains perspective.

When all voting is counted, Donald Trump will win Florida by 7 to 10 points.

Done.

Move on with the discussion to a state with a narrower margin.  The General Election result in Florida will mirror the primary result in geographic/county breakdown as noted in the graphic below – when Trump ran against Jeb Bush (former Gov), and Marco Rubio (current senator):

Florida primary

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This entry was posted in Desperately Seeking Hillary, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

303 Responses to Florida Data, Ballots, and Ground Reports: Latino Vote Supports Patrone’ Impact…

  1. Barcfsuheatrule says:

    Cuban not forget Elian and the Clinton as having that OLD AG pass away today brought back memories

    Liked by 9 people

  2. Barcfsuheatrule says:

    I live in Miami and or family all Cubans 18 of us voted for Trump. Bay of Pigs, Elian, and the last straw Obama pandering to the Castro I would hope Venezuelian here would vote with us also

    Liked by 16 people

  3. TakeBackOurRepublic says:

    There are many reasons why Trump is the best choice to lead our nation, but this assures me that God passed his strength and wisdom through these pastors onto Trump. The outcome is in His hands.

    Liked by 12 people

  4. Beverly says:

    Just talked to my uncle in Georgia. He says “Hell, yes, Georgia will go for Trump.” Also he and my aunt will join us all in the 9 pm. prayer for the salvation of our nation: set your timers, friends!

    Liked by 8 people

  5. TwoLaine says:

    #Blacks4TRUMP

    Liked by 7 people

  6. TrueHawk says:

    Gotta have Fla. No thanks to uniparty Jeb.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. datagooroo says:

    Early voting % increases are looking very good for Trump in battleground states:
    https://whatthedatasays.com/2016/11/07/the-monster-vote-is-realtomorrow-will-show-it/

    Liked by 4 people

  8. Barcfsuheatrule says:

    Those black for trump have been all over Florida same guys over and over I hope we do peel off some African American votes it would help. Having to run against Obama was no easy task look at the only city Marco Rubio won in the primaries Cuban stronghold Miami Dade so I would hope Haitian, Jamaicans vote for Trump I can count 4 guys I know did 1 Jamaican and 3 Haitian.

    Liked by 6 people

  9. Barcfsuheatrule says:

    BTW I was one of the 40k dorks that voted for Jeb sent the absentee and he got out a week later

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Barcfsuheatrule says:

    Ya <– low energy after that had a dream that a Cuban American president in the US wanted Rubio he lost and then Ted he lost. So going all Trump and enjoying every minute of this… We have to pull this out I will even the 269 and have the House decide

    Liked by 2 people

  11. oncefired says:

    We as a Family will do our part first thing in the Morning – 4 Votes heading Trump’s way from Valley Forge, PA. We need every vote possible outside of Philadelphia to counter all the corruption there!

    Liked by 5 people

  12. oncefired says:

    The Shill Brit Hume is on saying basically Trump doesn’t have a chance – can’t wait to watch the look on their faces tomorrow night!

    Liked by 4 people

    • wolfmoon1776 says:

      I think I’m seeing their media strategy now. They will keep pushing Hillary right up to the end. The idea is to characterize the Trump victory as a fluke of some kind, to be determined by media debate, and then minimized. They are going for a switch to a new gaslight meme, rather than trying to regain credibility. They’re brazening out on loss of cred, by a kind of “false Trumpsplaining” to create a new false narrative.

      Liked by 4 people

  13. Deborah says:

    Hillary is too sloppy, dangerous, and unprofessional to be President. Keep her away from the Oval Office. We have learned that she could easily be blackmailed. Every foreign intelligence has hacked Hillary’s emails. Hillary emails have compromised the safety of this Country just like she did her Ambassador, but unfortunately he was killed. Killing of Americans in this Country, must be what the Media wants for the citizens of this Country, by supporting Hillary. Her foreign house cleaner, without a security clearance was allowed by Hillary to handle classified emails. Hillary’s judgment is wild and irresponsible.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. silverlakela says:

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    DOUBLE DOWN FOR TRUMP!!!
    Bring a friend or two with you to vote!!!

    Liked by 3 people

  15. jackphatz says:

    My friend voted today in SW Oh county of Butler (one county north of Cincinnati, Hamilton Co.). We are more conservative here than not. She was told our county’s early/absentee voting was up 30% from 2012. When she asked what would happen if she tried to vote again tomorrow, she was told a red ‘box” would appear on their screen.

    Liked by 3 people

  16. wolfmoon1776 says:

    Good news coming out of Arizona. This was one of the first alternative media outlets to get the word out on Hillary’s Parkinsonism. They get some very good stuff.

    Liked by 3 people

  17. azcatsclaw says:

    Thank you for pointing out that the mythical Latino vote is just that a myth. We are not monolithic and quite frankly it is rather insulting to think we vote as a group as in some sort of hive mentality. And no, we do not all support comprehensive immigration reform. My family and I recognize it for what it is, political speak for amnesty.

    Liked by 4 people

  18. justfactsplz says:

    We are all set for tomorrow. Alarm clocks set, check. Red shirts laid out to wear, check. My DH and I will go to our poll after the working crowd (wonder what kind of crowd our little country precinct will have). With great pride we will take our cold anger and cast two votes in Florida for Trump. May God Almighty watch over this election.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. mariposa232 says:

    Amen! All you Holy Angels and Archangels, and Saints of the One True Living God, pray for us and come to our aid ! Most Holy Mary ,Mother and Virgin , come to our aid by your prayers , intercede before the throne of your Divine Son Jesus Christ , that we may be given the victory pleasing to Him , that our country , the United States of America be saved and spared of all evil , and once again rise to serve the Greater Glory of God and His people. Amen!

    Like

  20. TwoLaine says:

    I knew when I saw the TRUMP FL Primary stats that he had this in the bag for the GE.

    ¡No hay ningún problema!

    Like

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