In any analysis of Florida voting the Latino cultural impact is most often mis-identified by the media, 2016 is no exception. While the MSM is correctly identifying an up-swing in Latino Florida early voting, the MSM is also mistakenly inferring this to be a pro-Clinton narrative.
Those who live and work within Florida will quickly note there is a wide cultural disparity amid Hispanic and Latino voters. This is not a monolithic group. Approximately half of the Latino population in Florida have an ideology that is specifically favorable to Donald Trump, that is called the “Patrone’ Effect“: A strong cultural association with a strong (male) paternal role model.
While it is true culturally the Puerto Rican base is favorable to Hillary Clinton, the South American and Cuban vote is not analogous. Nor is the Mexican voting bloc identifiable with either PR, Cuban or South American. Each group is NOT interchangeable.
It is absurdly common for this reality to be misunderstood by business interests and the media. Whether this misunderstanding is accidental, naivete’ or intentionally done for ideological broadcast purposes is essentially a moot point; the truth is divergent from the MSM presentation.
That said, when looking at Florida analytically the lines between Democrat, Republican and Independent must be factored within the nature of a “closed primary” system. This became especially evident this year in Florida as competency cuts across all ethnic and cultural distinctions.
While Florida is indeed a microcosm of national sentiment via a regional demographic made up of a similar patchwork to the larger U.S., – Florida, in the aggregate outlook, is not as fractured as the whole nation when it comes to voter priorities and importance. The ECONOMY is always the leading issue in FL, period.
FLEPOREBLOG drills down into the voting data as the early voting comes to a close.
(Via FLEPOREBLOG) Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting as of November 7th 2016: 66,679 more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of November 6th
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
♦ Rep: 1,047,119 (+3,536 from 11/6)
♦ DEM: 980,440 (+6,305 from 11/6)
Other: 64,338 (+305 from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 457,756 (+3,340 from 11/6)
Total Returned: 2,549,653 (+13,486 from 11/6)
#Trump(Rep): 41.1% (same from 11/6)
#HRC(Dem): 38.5% (+0.1 from 11/6)
Other: 2.5% (same from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 18.0% (+0.1% from 11/6)
154,691 (+52,617 from 11/6) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 11/6 (4.0% Lead up from 2.8% on 11/5 (+1.2%})
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 1,425,312 (+66,028 from 11/6)
♦ DEM: 1,580,003 (+118,645 from 11/6)
Other: 89,988 (+5,366 from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 779,639 (+68,971 from 11/6)
Total Voted: 3,874,942 (+259,010 from 11/6)
#Trump(Rep): 36.8% (-0.8% from 11/6)
#HRC(Dem): 40.8% (+0.4% from 11/6)
Other: 2.3% (same from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 20.1% (+0.4% from 11/6)
You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE –
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
NEW AXIOM POLL AS OF 11/3: The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released today (taken 11/3), 83% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 83% of Republicans are voting for Trump (THIS IS VERY CONSERVATIVE). 12% of Republicans are voting for HRC while 13% of Democrats are voting for Trump.
Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) have been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 11/3, Trump has 44% of Independents while HRC only has 41% of Independents (Very conservative but we will roll with it. If we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as following in the votes mailed and early voted so far:
♦ R: 2,052,118 (R voting for Trump) + 332,858 (D voting for Trump) + 612,357 (I & O voting for Trump) = 2,997,333 Total Votes
♦ D: 2,125,168 (D voting for HRC) + 296,692 (R voting for HRC) + 570,606 (I & O voting for HRC) = 2,992,466 Total Votes
Total Votes for either candidate – 5,989,799
Total Votes for ALL (which I used to derive the %s below) candidates – 6,424,595
♦ Trump = 46.65%
♦ HRC = 46.58%
Margin = 0.07 for Trump
Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking into account the following factors:
Gary Johnson – R: 2% D: 0% I: 7%
Someone else – R: 1% D: 1% I: 3%
Undecided – R: 1% D: 3% I: 6%
This is YUGE because Obama won early voting in FL by 5 points in 2012 and after election night he won the state by less than 1 point. (link)
Folks, based on what we have data wise so far, I can now soundly say that we will win FL. FLORIDA IS DONE! Republicans in the state of Florida are traditionalists. They wait for Election Day to vote since many are elderly.
#Trump attracting support from women, millennials and latinos st #Sarasota rally #wtsp pic.twitter.com/CirPNSlsWU
— Isabel Mascareñas (@IMascarenas) November 7, 2016
From my own perspective, connected to thousands of Florida voters, the “independent” (non affiliated) voter, as well as from the prior regional polling conducted earlier in this election cycle, shows at a minimum a 10 point break in favor of Donald Trump.
Summary, yes there are more Hispanic (Floridians don’t like that term) voters participating in the early Florida voting cycle, but that doesn’t bode well for Clinton. Cuban-Americans are at least 10 points more favorable toward Donald Trump. When combined with the difference in Independent voter support (again 10 points pro-Trump), and added to the Dem cross-over vote for Trump – the election outcome in Florida gains perspective.
When all voting is counted, Donald Trump will win Florida by 7 to 10 points.
Done.
Move on with the discussion to a state with a narrower margin. The General Election result in Florida will mirror the primary result in geographic/county breakdown as noted in the graphic below – when Trump ran against Jeb Bush (former Gov), and Marco Rubio (current senator):
