We are in the phase where media-polling has lost its gaslighting influence because actual ballot and early vote data is available to refute the ridiculous media narratives.
[…] The interests who control the rigged information systems are beyond “gaslighting” now; they have entered a phase were constructing and/or maintaining the false premise no longer works because contradictory empirical reality is visible. Within this phase truth-telling is perceived as a risk. Be aware. –link–
As such we are now seeing the Clinton Team add campaign stops in states the media have ignored: Wisconsin and Michigan are now in play. The same optimistic data which shows Trump leading in Ohio is drawing candidate Trump into Michigan beginning Monday.
Previously we utilized the excellent insight and data collected by FLEPOREBLOG to look closely at Florida and North Carolina, both states are solidly in the Trump column. Today FLEPOREBLOG provides the data for us to look beyond the media narrative, and into what’s actually taking place in Nevada and Ohio.
NEVADA
Latest Nevada Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/22) of 10/28
1,939 (+290 from 10/27) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/27 (+4.7% Lead up from 4.6% on 10/27 {+0.1%})
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
♦ Rep: 17,864 (+2,527 from 10/27)
♦ DEM: 15,925 (+2,237 from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 8,074 (+1,106 from 10/27)
Total Returned: 41,863 (+5,870 from 10/27)
#Trump(Rep): 42.7% (+0.1% from 10/27)
#HRC(Dem): 38.0% (same from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 19.3% (-0.1% from 10/27)
For Comparison – Here is what Early Mail-in-Ballots looked like in 2012 at the same time (keep in mind Week 1 in 2016 is not done yet)
Voted-by-Mail (Returned/Week 1 2012)
♦ Rep: 23,491
♦ DEM: 22,956
Other (Independents): 8,613
Total Returned: 55,060
#Trump(Rep): 42.7% (Down 0.1% from 2016)
#HRC(Dem): 41.7% (Down 3.7% from 2016)
Other (Independents): 15.6% (Up 3.8% from 2016)
535 more registered Republicans (Total Returned: 23,491) returned their Early Mail-in-Ballot compared to Democrats (Total Returned: 22,956) in Week 1 of the 2012 Presidential Election. When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Republicans are up (R: 1,939 {2016} to R: 535 {2012}) by 1,404 more early mail-in-ballots than 2012.
The lead for Republicans was 1.0% when looking at their % (R: 42.7% {2012} vs D: 41.7% {2012}) of returned mail-in ballots compared to the Democrats from 2012.
When comparing 2016’s % to 2012’s % (Week 1 Only), Republicans are up (R: 42.7% {2016} vs D: 38.0% {2016}) by (R: 4.7% {2016} to R: 1.0% {2012}) 3.7% more early mail-in-ballots than 2012.
EARLY VOTING: 29,141 (+986 from 10/27) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/27 (10.1% Lead down from 11.5% on 10/27 {-1.4%})
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 101,935 (+17,552 from 10/27)
♦ DEM: 131,076 (+18,538 from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 55,998 (+9,571 from 10/27)
Total Voted: 289,008 (+45,660 from 10/27)
#Trump(Rep): 35.3% (+0.6% from 10/27)
#HRC(Dem): 45.4% (-0.8% from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 19.4% (+0.3% from 10/27)
For Comparison – Here is what Early Voting looked like in 2012 at the same time (keep in mind Week 1 in 2016 is not done yet)
29,187 more registered Democrats (D Voted Early: 139,281) Voted Early compared to Republicans (R Voted Early: 110,094) in Week 1 of the 2012 Presidential Election.
When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Democrats are down (D: 29,141 {2012} to D: 29,187 {2016}) by 46 less early votes than 2012.
The lead for Democrats was 9.7% when looking at their % (D: 46.0% {2012} vs R: 36.3% {2012}) of Early Votes compared to the Republicans from 2012.
When comparing 2016’s % to 2012’s % (Week 1 Only), Democrats are up (D: 10.1% {2016} vs D: 9.7% {2012}) by 0.4% more early votes than 2012.
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 110,094
♦ DEM: 139,281
Other (Independents): 53,610
Total Voted: 302,985
#Trump(Rep): 36.3%
#HRC(Dem): 46.0%
Other (Independents): 17.7%
You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that the Axiom state poll from 10/23, 3% more Democrats are voting for Trump than HRC (21% D for Trump while 18% R for HRC). Also Other (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 19%. If we take the Axiom state poll data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as follows in votes mailed or early voted so far:
♦ R: 98,235 (R voting for Trump) + 30,870 (D voting for Trump) + 38,123 (I voting for Trump) = 167,228 Total Votes
♦ D: 116,131 (D voting for HRC) + 21,564 (R voting for HRC) + 25,949 (I voting for HRC) = 163,644
Trump = 50.5%
HRC = 49.5%
Trump appears to be leading as of 10/28 by a margin of 1%. This is very close. However, Trump was up only up 0.2 yesterday 10/27 (Trump = 50.1% to HRC = 49.9%) so at least the space has grown slightly. Donald Trump will be back in Nevada Sunday, with a campaign stop in Las Vegas.
OHIO
Ohio continues to look increasingly good for Donald Trump. Hamilton County, Ohio, is considered a battleground county in the Axiom Battleground Counties Poll. It is a predictor for Ohio.
FLEPOREBLOG – Latest Hamilton County, Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests and Returns as of 10/28 (Source Link Here)
2,189 (+330 from 10/27) more registered Republicans have returned an Absentee Ballot or Voted Early as of 10/27 (3.8% Lead up from +3.6% on 10/27 {+0.2%})
Voted-by-Mail (Returned) or Early Voting
♦ REP: 18,880 (+1,719 from 10/27)
♦ DEM: 16,691 (+1,389 from 10/27)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 21,354 (+2,162 from 10/27)
LIB: 19 (+1 from 10/27)
Green Party: 45 (+6 from 10/27)
Total Returned: 56,989 (+5,277 from 10/27)
Trump#: 33.1% (-0.1% from 10/27)
HRC#: 29.3% (-0.3% from 10/27)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 37.5% (+0.4% from 10/27)
LIB: 0.03% (same from 10/27)
Green Party: 0.08% (same from 10/27)
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in the Rasmussen poll yesterday, Democrats and Republicans are even in the crossover vote (12% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC {I DON’T BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE FACT BUT LETS GO WITH IT). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 4% (THIS IS ULTRA CONSERVATIVE). If we take both Rasmussen and Axiom polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as following in votes mailed and early voted in so far:
♦ R: 18,880 (R voting for Trump) + 0 (D voting for Trump) + 11,104 (I voting for Trump) = 29,984 Total Votes
♦ D: 16,691 (D voting for HRC) + 0 (R voting for HRC) + 10,250 (I voting for HRC) = 26,941
Trump = 52.7%
HRC = 47.3%
I did not include Libertarian (LIB) or Green Party totals in this calculation.
There have been polls in OH showing Trump getting 20% more than HRC among Independents. My tally above only uses a 4% difference. If we use the latest Fox poll from the other day that shows Independents at +13% for Trump, the results will look like the following:
Trump = 54.4%
HRC = 45.6%
Obama won Hamilton County by 4.7% in 2012 – SOURCE – Hamilton County Ohio 2012 Election Results:
B. Obama (i) Dem – 51.8% Total Votes 208,508
M. Romney GOP – 46.9% Total Votes 188,653
G. Johnson Lib – 0.9% Total Votes 3,596
J. Stein Grn – 0.2% Total Votes 974
R. Duncan Una – 0.1% Total Votes 397
V. Goode CST – 0.1% Total Votes 329
S. Alexander Soc – 0.0% Total Votes 115
Folks, based on what we have data wise so far and the fact that that SD shared an article discussing the MV in Butler County, OH. I can now soundly say that we will win OH by 8 to 10 points (55 – 45)! Ohio will be called the first minute after the polls close on Election Day in the state!
SUMMARY: Trump is very solid in Florida and Ohio with an almost identical statistical result of a 7 to 10 point lead. No worries. Trump is also solid in North Carolina which has a traditionally strong election day vote advantage, November 8th, for Trump. Nevada is the closest of the four states but Trump appears to be holding a slight advantage, and will be there on Sunday.
