You have to know Florida to understand Florida. In many ways it’s a microcosm of the larger U.S. electorate, everyone is from somewhere else; and in some ways it’s a unique place known only to generational crackers, which has nothing whatsoever to do with race or hyphens.
If you grew up in Florida you’ll already know most of this review. Or if, like me, your childhood Tupperware was a matching set of Cool Whip containers, well, it should make sense too…
After the primary season voting we shared some insight into what the results meant for the general election overall. We even made some predictions based on that result. It’s now seven months later, and despite the media noise, the reality of what’s taking place on the ground aligns with all previous expectations.
CTH has a network in Florida. Ordinary people, ordinary contacts that are like most, comfortably invisible, yet well grounded and clear-eyed.
You might remember how far off the media was in their primary predictions within the Sunshine State, the reasons are simple: #1) they don’t know Florida (it’s a complex market), and #2) what’s happening in Florida doesn’t comport with their preferred narrative.
FLEPOREBLOG has the fancy analysis summed up well: Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/25
30,982 (+10,369 from 10/24) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/24 (+2.3% Lead up from 1.7% on 10/24 {+0.6%})
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
♦ Rep: 556,058 (+52,426 from 10/24)
♦ DEM: 525,076 (+42,057 from 10/24)
Other: 34,176 (+2,669 from 10/24)
No Party Affiliation: 208,124 (+19,933 from 10/24)
Total Returned: 1,323,434 (+117,085 from 10/24)
#Trump(Rep): 42.0% (+0.3% from 10/24)
#HRC(Dem): 39.7% (-0.3% from 10/24)
Other: 2.6% (same from 10/24)
No Party Affiliation: 15.7% (+0.1% from 10/24)
24,007 more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/24
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 109,034
♦ DEM: 133,041
Other: 6,650
No Party Affiliation: 42,724
Total Returned: 291,449
#Trump(Rep): 37.4%
#HRC(Dem): 45.6%
Other: 2.3%
No Party Affiliation: 14.7
NOTE: 17 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County and had the following distribution:
#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082
You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in the Rasmussen polling yesterday, 4% more Democrats are voting for Trump than HRC (16% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Fox’s most recent poll last Monday, Trump was winning I by 8%. If we take both Rasmussen and Fox polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as the following in the votes mailed or early voted in so far:
R – 585,281 (R voting for Trump) + 105,299 (D voting for Trump) + 135,458 (I voting for Trump) +22,046 (Other voting for Trump) = 848,084 Total Votes
D – 552,818 (D voting for HRC) + 79,811 (R voting for HRC) + 115,390 (I voting for HRC) + 18,780 (Other voting for HRC) = 766,799
Trump = 52.5%
HRC = 47.5%
This is YUGE because Obama won early voting in FL by 5 points in 2012 and after election night he won the state by less than 1 point.
Folks, based on what we have data wise so far and the fact that the 17 counties didn’t start early voting until the 29th of October (which favors Trump based on data above), I can now soundly say that we will win FL by 9 to 10 points (55 – 45) ! (link)
fleporeblog‘s analysis is independent and not connected to the previous review of the state we shared earlier.
Donald Trump also holds a 14 point advantage with independent voters in Florida. We’ve previously shared an expectation that Trump will win Florida by a margin between 7 and 10 points. Mitt Romney held no cross cultural appeal in 2012. None, nada, zilch… yet he only lost Florida by 75,000 votes.
Florida is All About Economics, and Cross-Cultural Appeal…
The Northwest panhandle is regionally very similar to southern SEC states. The people living in the North Florida panhandle hold very analogous ideological outlooks to “southerners” in a general sense. Trump wins those easily.
The North Central coastal area is very similar to areas in the U.S. where you find high concentrations of military installations and military bases. Trump wins those easily.
The North East region of Florida is analogous to the demographics within the Tri-State area of the upper North East (Philly, New Jersey, New York). [See Trump Tallahassee today]
The East Central region of Florida holds similarity to the Missouri and Gateway area of the U.S. Again, totally dominated by Trump.
The South East region of Florida, the “Space Coast” from Port St Lucie north to Cape Canaveral and Daytona (East Central) is very similar to the Mid-Atlantic region of the Eastern coast of the U.S.
The Southern region of Florida is very similar to the upper North Eastern U.S. with the exception of cultural diversity enhanced by high Cuban populations. However, if you back out the Latino population you’ll find a similar ideological worldview to what Senator Cruz described as “New York Values”.
Also in the far Southern region (Florida Keys) you’ll find great similarity to the Southern California socially liberal, libertarian, outlooks (w/out Latinos).
In the South Western Florida Region, you’ll find a mix of very high income (Naples – Collier County on the coast) which is similar to Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Hampshire and the well off areas of the North East U.S., and a working class Florida resident slightly inland. This entire region is easily won by Trump.
In the West Central Florida Region you’ll find a blend of Mid-west (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan) types.
Port Charlotte and Charlotte county have a high population of residents from Ohio. Very pro-Trump.
The Pinellas and Hillsborough county area of Florida (Tampa, St-Pete) begins the Western side of the I-4 corridor and holds a culturally diverse blend of Latino’s and Hispanics, along with middle-class and upper income demographics. Hillary has some support there, but no-where near what she would need to offset the rest of the state.
Starting in the Gulf of Mexico (Tampa) and headed east, the I-4 Corridor. I-4 driving East toward Daytona and the East FL coast, you find Disney (Orange County) in the center. Polk county is also on this corridor and is a commercial and industrial hub of commerce for transport/delivery to Southern Florida.
Just below the I-4 corridor is the citrus industry. In all of these regional demographics, and high population centers, economics -not political ideology- is the driving force.
In the southern central (Glades and Hendry counties) you’ll find mostly farm operations, row crops etc. These two counties also have very high Mexican and South American Hispanic demographics. The Haitian population adds to the cultural mix and the employment economics of the area.
Why is this so important?
Because Florida is a microcosm of the entire U.S.
All of these population centers are inhabited by clusters of people who are transplants from the Southern, North East, Mid-Atlantic, Mid-West, Upper Mid-West and even Western U.S. And in each of these areas with very regional-centric outlooks you find high support for Donald Trump.
This reality is exactly opposite from the media narrative.
In essence, when you pull back from the micro-look from Trump’s strength in Florida – what you will find is the macro-look overlay fits almost identically with the regional perspectives of the larger U.S. nationally. This reality underlines the remarkable strength noticed immediately in 2015 because Donald Trump instantly assembled a very broad-based coalition of support.
If Trump can win Florida with a seven to near ten point margin of cross-cultural/cross-regional victory in, he is well positioned to do the exact same thing on a national scale in the larger aggregate.
♦ Additionally, despite the almost embedded talking points about Florida elections since the Bush-Gore contest/fiasco of 2000, Florida is now a solid voter security state. Voter ID is required in Florida, and the State Elections Office (Republican) has revamped the entire process in the past several cycles.
In part due to Republican Governors, a Republican majority in the State House and Senate, and Republican elected officials holding all the top offices throughout the state, the voter rolls are required to be purged and refreshed regularly by local officials (**Always remember** lots of people die in Florida – retiree population).
There are 18 Republicans and only 9 Democrats in the entire federal political delegation. Of all the states that might be prone to electoral fraud, Florida is at the bottom of that concern list.
Florida is Trump Country, and that’s a significant part of the reason we can comfortably state this won’t be close folks, it won’t even be close:
