Earlier today on CNN Clinton Campaign spokesperson Brian Fallon stated: “in the next three weeks we expect the polls to tighten significantly“.  Wait, huh.. wha?
The reason for Fallon’s prediction is brutally obvious, the current media polls are nonsense.  As a result, the polling averages are nonsense.  As a result the electoral maps the media want to sell today -based on those polls- are nonsense….  In essence, the same bias media coverage is embedded in their biased media polls.

In response to Hillary Clinton’s unconscious collapse in New York City, media immediately demand Donald Trump release his medical records…

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Fortunately, we are at the stage in the presidential race where it is actually possible to guage what’s going on by looking at ballots, early voting, absentee ballot distribution modeling, and comparisons to prior elections.  Even if the media doesn’t want to take that approach, we can do it ourselves.
Reader/Contributor “FLEPOREBLOG” has assembled some data to highlight reality.  Empirical data rebukes the gaslighting and help people break the abusive cycle of battered voter syndrome:

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North Carolina

Folks ask me where is evidence of the Monster Vote. As of 10-15-16 the Party Affiliation in NC are as follows:

Republicans – 30.2%
Democrats – 39.7%
Libertarians – 0.5%
UNA (Independents) – 29.7%

Male Registered Voters: 3,047,319 (44.8%)
Female Registered Voters: 3,613,040 (53.2%)
Didn’t Provide Gender Data: 135,347 (2.0%)
Total Registered Voters: 6,795,706

(Data Source)
Latest NC Early Mail Voting as of 10/18
15,610 (+922 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (9.3% Lead up from 9.1% on 10/17 {+0.2%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)

REP: 67,954 (+2,679 from 10/17)
DEM: 52,344 (+1,757 from 10/17)
LIB: 597 (+29 from 10/17)
UNA: 47,276 (+1,946 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 168,171 (+6,411 from 10/17)

#Trump(Rep): 40.4% (same from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 31.1% (-0.2% from 10/17)
Lib: 0.4% (same from 10/17)
UNA: 28.1% (+0.1% from 10/17)

1,742 (+541 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (3.8% Lead up from 2.9% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned & Accepted

Rep: 18,120 (+2,177 from 10/17)
DEM: 16,378 (+1,636 from 10/17)
Lib: 123 (+12 from 10/17)
UNA: 11,618 (+1,261 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 46,239 (+5,086 from 10/17)

#Trump (Rep): 39.2% (+0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem):  35.4% (-0.4% from 10/17)
#Lib: 0.3% (same from 10/17)
# UNA: 25.1% (-0.1% from 10/17)

New data out concerning early voting party affiliation in NC

2016: D 37%, R 38%, I 25% (so far)
2012: D 47%, R 32%, I 21%

Interesting stuff for number junkies.
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Hamilton County Ohio

Latest bellweather – Hamilton County, Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests and Returns as of 10-18-16 (Source Link)
9,673 (-257 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (11.5% Lead down from 12.1% on 10/17 {-0.6%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)

REP: 28,425 (+350 from 10/17)
DEM: 18,752 (+607 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 36,492 (+765 from 10/17)
LIB: 27 (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 58 (+2 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 83,754 (+1,724 from 10/17)

Trump#: 33.9% (-0.3% from 10/17)
HRC#: 22.4% (+0.3% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 43.6% (same from 10/17)
LIB: 0.03% (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.07% (same from 10/17)

770 (-2 from 10/17) more registered Democrats have returned an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (7.7% Lead down from 37.0% on 10/17 {-29.3%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned

REP: 3,101 (+2,798 from 10/17)
DEM: 3,871 (+2,796 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 3,593 (+2,893 from 10/17)
LIB: 5 (+5 from 10/17)
Green Party: 8 (+6 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 10,578 (+8,498 from 10/17)

Trump#: 29.3% (+14.7% from 10/17)
HRC#: 37.0% (-14.7% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 34.0% (+0.3% from 10/17)
LIB: 0.5% (+0.5% from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.8% (+0.7% from 10/17)

We are looking really good in Ohio.
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FLORIDA

At this point don’t concern yourself with any polls coming out of FL. These tallies which are released daily is what is actually happening on the ground. Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as of 10-18-16
5,833 (+5,799 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (+0.9% Lead up from 0.0% on 10/17 {+0.9%})

Rep: 265,657 (+55,0288 from 10/17)
DEM: 259,824 (+49,229 from 10/17)
Other: 17,457 (+3,105 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 96,874 (+19,600 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 639,812 (+126,962 from 10/17)

#Trump(Rep): 41.5% (+0.4% from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 40.6% (-0.5% from 10/17)
Other: 2.7% (-0.1% from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 15.1% (same from 10/17)

20,832 (-19,720 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/78 (0.9% Lead down from 1.6% on 10/17 {-0.7%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)

Rep: 940,578 (-41,261 from 10/17)
Dem: 919,746 (-21,541 from 10/17)
Other: 56,490 (-1,622 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 442,731 (-3,690 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 2,359,545 (-68,114 from 10/17)

#Trump(Rep): 39.9% (-0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 39.0% (+0.2% from 10/17)
Other: 2.4% (same from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 18.8% (+0.4% from 10/17)

You can track this daily at this link.
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PENNSYLVANIA

Week of 10/10 to 10/16

2,680 Republicans switched to Democrat
4,007 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat

5,197 Democrats switched to Republican
3,269 Others (Ind) switched to Republican

Yearly Total 2016

42,740 Republicans switched to Democrat
72,988 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat (Many to Vote for Bernie in Primary)

106,159 Democrats switched to Republican
53,448 Others (Ind) switched to Republican (Many to Vote for Trump)

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NEVADA

Early Voting Data from NV comparing early voting %s between 2012 and 2016

NV – 2012 44% D vs. 37% R
NV – 2016 33% D vs. 43% R (+17 points from 2012)

In NV at this time in 2012, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows

D = 42.2% (612,050 registered voters)
R = 34.1% (494,494 registered voters)

8.1% difference in favor of D

In NV at this time in 2016, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows

D = 39.8% (646,339 registered voters)
R = 33.0% (535,782 registered voters)

6.8% difference in favor of D

Large increase among Independents from 254,149 (17.5%) registered voters in 2012 to 334,960 (20.6%) registered voters in 2016.
Again, this is favorable for Team Trump!
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Republican voter turnout projected 2

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