Florida Voter Registration Changes Give Clear Edge To Donald Trump…

In various media presentations you will often hear of Florida listed as a “battleground state“; some media call Florida a “swing state“.

Historically, this has been an accurate representation for the past 5 presidential election cycles.  However, changes in the past several years position Florida as highly favorable to a Donald Trump win.

Here’s why we can be confident that Donald Trump will win Florida.   The following table lists voter registration as complied by the Florida Division of Elections:

Florida registration 2012 vs 2016

Source Link Here – As noted above, in 2012 Democrats held a 558,272 registration advantage over Republicans; Mitt Romney lost the state of Florida to President Obama by 73,189 votes (50% to 49.1%) – Source.

Notice since 2012 Republican registration has increased by 164K, while Democrat registration has actually decreased by 135k.

Florida 2012 results

(source)

Since election year 2012 GOP registration has surged and reduced the overall Dem advantage by almost 300,000, to where it currently stands at 258,648.  This is in part driven by the closed primary process where voters can only vote for their registered party candidate.

Currently the registration in Florida is:

  • Republican 35.31%
  • Democrat 37.92%
  • Independent/Other 26.25%.

Compare those current real-time accurate party affiliation percentages to the Media-Polling done amid the various “battleground” or “swing state” polls and you’ll note significant undersampling of Republicans by 4 to 7 points – Example Quinnipiac.  [*note* CBS never gives their breakdown of party affiliation for their “battleground polls”] There’s a reason for that, but I digress, because it gets tiresome shredding these media polls.

However, another key element to note in Florida is the 2015/2016 shift from Independent to Republican specifically to vote FOR Donald Trump in the GOP Primary:

Florida registration 2012 vs 2016

Independent voter registration in Florida, in each presidential election year, was increasing by approximately 250,000 +/- (See Historical Chart).  However, from 2015 to 2016 the independent registration numbers barely moved.  Instead what you see is a massive jump in Republican registration.

This data shift away from Independent and into Republican statistically shows the surge in voter registration to vote in the 2016 Florida Presidential Primary.  Virtually all of that movement was specifically to vote for Donald Trump (see below):

Florida primary

Despite the MSM protestations narrative leading up to a “tight Florida primary race“, you can see -and might remember- it wasn’t even close.  Donald Trump won every county except Dade County (Miami).  A Historical Context for that “blowout” victory is HERE.

♦ In 2012 despite a 558k Dem voter registration advantage, Obama only beat Romney by 73k votes (50% to 49%).  This year 300k independents have already surged into the ranks of the Florida GOP easily overcoming the historical challenge present in 2012.

It is safe to say these results provide a great measure of confidence for Florida’s large electoral prize to be considered in Trump’s column.  There is virtually nothing on the horizon that can remove that confidence.

Because of it’s size, geography and scope of non-native residents, Florida is also a microcosm for the entire national electorate. SEE HERE

trump fort lauderdale 2

Pictured Above: Donald Trump Rally Fort Lauderdale, FL – August 10th 2016

trump rally daytona 3

Pictured Above: Donald Trump Rally Daytona, FL – August 3rd 2016

♦  Additionally, despite the almost embedded talking points about Florida elections since the Bush-Gore contest/fiasco of 2000, Florida is now a solid voter security state.  Voter ID is required in Florida, and the State Elections Office (Republican) has revamped the entire process in the past several cycles.

In part due to Republican Governors, a Republican majority in the State House and Senate, and Republican elected officials holding all the top offices throughout the state, the voter roles are required to be purged and refreshed regularly by local officials (**Always remember** lots of people die in Florida – retiree population).

There are 18 Republicans and only 9 Democrats in the entire federal political delegation. Of all the states that might be prone to electoral fraud, Florida is at the bottom of that concern list.

Florida is Trump Country, and that’s a significant part of the reason we can comfortably state this won’t be close folks, it won’t even be close:

Republican voter turnout projected 2

(link)

trump hard hat 2

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This entry was posted in Desperately Seeking Hillary, Donald Trump, Election 2016. Bookmark the permalink.

279 Responses to Florida Voter Registration Changes Give Clear Edge To Donald Trump…

  1. shallbe4 says:

    The Murdock Liberal kids are running Fox News now. This appears to be another media scam to make us believe that Trump is going to screw up over. Depress the voters and you depress the turnout.

    Like

  2. Sandra-VA says:

    I am not worried… I am pretty sure that Trump will win win win!!! The intense and co-ordinated media bias is having a reverse effect; Messaging is being honed and targeted by the Trump Campaign; polls are showing already that there is a “tie”.. and we all know that that is not true, Mr. Trump is ahead and will stay there.

    The only way Killary wins is via voter fraud.

    Like

  3. clash108 says:

    Just think when Trump opens his 25 offices in Fla. around Labor day. Remember, Clinton is already established there, she’s topped out. Trump is going to soar.

    Like

  4. Guyver1 says:

    Excellent piece, Sundance.
    As someone on the ground here in Florida, I can verify Florida is solid Trump territory, just like during the primaries.
    This is great. In 2008 and 2012, by this time, the Obamabots were in full seek and destroy mode, ganging up on anyone who expressed support for anyone other than their false god (small g on purpose) Obama. They would all start squawking at the same time in order to drown your voice out.
    This time, the situation is reversed. Republicans, democrats and independents realize this goes beyond political affiliation, and we are being very vocal about it. The Marxists are being real quiet, at work, the few times they have spouted pro-Hitlary nonsense, several things have happened:
    1. We pound them with facts, not propaganda. And we do so loudly.
    2. Their buddies have not jumped in to back them up.
    3. When they realize their buddies are not going to back them up, that these are now one on one engagements, they tuck tail and run.
    As for the polls, agree 100%, they are junk.
    Funny that you mention Quinnipiac. Years ago, they used to call me all the time- until I realized that their questions were designed in such a way that no matter how you answered, they got the result they wanted. Think along the lines of ‘How frequently do you beat your wife’, no option for ‘I have never beat my wife, and never will’. The last time they called I told them I was now aware of their game and rigged questions, then I told them (in those exact words) to go pound sand, and to take my name and number off their calling list.
    So now it is not just a question of the polls being rigged (they are), there are now millions (maybe tens of millions) on our side who refuse to participate in their junk polls. So that throws their fake numbers off even more.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. ASpade says:

    Let us not forget how much money in negative ads the Republican Uniparty spent on negative advertising during the primaries. A lot of the people are already numb to the negative ads in a lot of the battleground states so there is very little they can gain with more ads. Even though Trump’s messy war on the media throughout the summer has been rough, it was necessary for the endgame. A thoroughly discredited (and rightfully) media makes the playing field even for the final months, allowing Trump to focus on the issues until the election.

    Like

  6. Frank says:

    Assuming Trump wins Florida, if he can retain the states Romney won, and wins Ohio and PA he’ll have it. I think Virginia is a lost cause unless an anvil lands on McAuliffe’s fat head.

    Like

  7. Jamie says:

    I first would like to apologize for what I am about to ramble. I love the encouragement and enthusiasm I gain from this site. It’s so needed and appreciated at the start of my day, during my day and at day’s end.

    I am one of the DJT supporters not polled and not accounted for. At first glance it’s assumed I lean left. My racial composition (mixed), age, gender, area of residence (Starbucks HQ), etc., tell them I should be part of their voting bloc. It shocks people to find out otherwise. And then the insults. I’m a sellout. I’ve been brainwashed. I’m a racist. Being biracial has me confused. I hate myself because I’m a woman. I have Stockholm syndrome and an inability to grasp the bigger picture. I lack compassion. Few will speak with me about what my reasons might be with any objectivity, so I no longer engage. I don’t want to ‘one up’ another side (though there would be a small level of smugness). I want us to be able to, sooner rather than later, acknowledge this ‘blueprint’ is not working, change course and start fixing all that is broken before it’s too late.

    Never an overly nervous person, but about this, I find myself tense. The constant and unavoidable bombardment everywhere I turn, spelling out a victory for her (news tickers, email, social media postings of my peers. tuned out yesterday intentionally but then saw an unfavorable Trump Time magazine cover just standing in the checkout line that raised my BP considerably) does get to me. I gravitate to this site to gain some of the resolve and anchoring others have.

    I am hoping that the monster vote theory is accurate, that there isn’t a level of fraud that could derail it, and also hope that more information sees the light of day that will expose not just HRC but the entire Democratic party for the criminals, dividers and unprogressive group they truly are.

    The information that is slowly seeping out from WikiLeaks and other groups doesn’t seem to be registering with the masses. While it’s enjoyable to watch the leaks make waves and make their camp incredibly uncomfortable, I really would love something that seals the deal, understanding it has to be huge and broken down in a way the simpletons can grasp. I’ve heard of turning a blind eye, but chalking up what has already been exposed to not a big deal is making me question up from down, black from white, the sum of 2+2. Were we all dropped into an alternate universe where right and wrong are not absolute?

    For the past several years, I have been utterly confused by the fog everyone remains in, like a bad dream. There were books about it. Bradbury. Orwell. Rand. London. Even recent pop culture films with The Hunger Games I thought was parallel to our existence, to a degree. But now that we’re living the fiction, can we not see the forest through the trees (and when I say ‘we’, I am certainly not referring to those reading)? If the consequences weren’t so dire, it’d be funny. I’d be content with my ‘told you so’. But stakes are high, for me, my family, patriots and all who want this country to prosper, thrive and succeed based on the foundation laid out by its forefathers. I cannot stand the thought of what a future ruled by this conglomerate – whatever the term is – Dems, UniParty, Global Elitists, Libs, Progs, Rhinos – might look like, and strongly believe that it will break us. Worse than that is the concept of everyone marching in lockstep, no questions asked, remaining so willfully ignorant and blind, so dumb that they don’t even realize they’ve surrendered. Even the slightest inkling that this is a possibility turns my stomach. So thank you for the wisdom and reassurance all of you continue to provide.

    Liked by 5 people

    • shallbe4 says:

      Hang in there hon. You are on the right side of history. This is a movement. Let the other side rant. When we go into those voting booths after waiting in line for hours to do so we can say nobody can stop us now.

      Like

    • Look to the real world, not the flimsy media world.

      Real World: In 2012 AND recently in 2014 Republicans had landslides due to massive turnout WINS in the House, Senate, State Houses, Gov Mansions in 37 States.

      Has not happened since the Depression.

      Who helped this happen thru his own words just BEFORE the election in 2014?

      “Make no mistake, my policies are on the ballot.” obama

      He and everyone he associates with are the kiss of death at the polls.

      Focus on the results, not the chatter. Hang tight! It’s gonna be EPIC TRUMP WIN.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. We live in Florida, the most Republican dense county in the State. Travelling to Trump’s rallies has been easy and a lot of fun.
    Mr Trump has 100% lock on a win here.
    Used to live for decades in Louisiana and was part of the entreprenuer world there that flourished into the early ’80’s. That also meant you had to engage in politics because of the playing field. Politicians write the rules, we play the game. Way it is.

    LA politics is a blood sport, bare knuckles all the way and the brawl was always about the TURNOUT. YOU WIN ON TURNOUT.

    TRUMP has the momentum to post a turnout that rivals President Ronald Reagan (yes, I worked for his campaign – Virginia Martinez was the Republican Chair those days and the mother of my close friend Reggie).

    This will be historic. The results of a non-politician with the blood of Scots and Vikings will be the wrecking ball Washington needs and the rebuild Trump is qualified to perform.
    Bonus – and a pleasure to see the demise of the Clinton Crime Syndicate and the eventual demise of HRC herself as her health will not take this loss.

    Hurry November!

    Liked by 3 people

  9. dekester says:

    Maybe this will help a settle the nerves of some.. I have received an email from the Trump campaign in Washington State. As they were contacted by me about assisting the campaign on Nov 8th.
    I am Canadian, and live in B.C. and cannot vote in your election. However if I am legally allowed to do so, I will be in Whatcom County ( WA.) on Nov 8th to assist in any way I can.
    The MONSTER vote is huge… our family would all drive down and vote Mr. Trump Nov 8th if we could. So let us think how the millions of dis-enfranchised Americans feel about the fraud that has been played on them these last 8 years.
    Thank You

    Liked by 2 people

  10. SR says:

    It seems Kasick (mailman) is standing in the middle of OH win for Trump and winning election. He is not proving any support to Trump and RNC. OH republican needs to put pressure on him. Why is he so angry and taking everything personal?

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Speaking of Florida, Trump will be in Tampa on Wednesday!

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

    Liked by 1 person

    • I needed this good news today. Dems are also running out of tricks like confusing ballots and hanging chads. GOP needs precinct watchers in Blowhard County where attempts at cheating will be rampant .

      Keep up the good work, Sundance.

      Liked by 2 people

      • skipper1961 says:

        Russell,
        This is anecdotal (and to some, repetitious), but when my wife, who is an election official (?) here in Orlando, came home at the end of Primary Election Day, she told me of close to 100 (out of a previous 1300, from 2012, that’s like 8%) people who were very disappointed to be informed that they couldn’t vote due to the current closed primary election status. In other words, those folks having not registered as a Republican, were not able to cast their vote for Donald J. Trump. Hence one more facet of the MONSTER VOTE! I will guarantee that those folks made the necessary corrections IMMEDIATELY. And that’s just among registered (currently) voters.Even with the protections that Florida provides, I am going to be a volunteer at a polling station near me. I encourage you to please get involved, as well.

        Like

  12. Citizen Kane says:

    When Dana Perrino tweeted last week her belief in the polls and Trump trailing….I knew we were winning…..that girl is dumb as rocks….she is clueless about what is going on.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/291817-dana-perino-i-will-never-lie-to-you

    Liked by 1 person

    • so learning from earlier mistakes is being stupid?

      Like

    • Marc says:

      I like to think she’s cunningly devious but maybe she really is that stupid. She talks about being fooled by those saying Romney was sure to win but Romney only had GOPe support. The voters didn’t like him. Nobody but the establishment and pundits liked him. We voted against Obama, not for Romney. Trump has real grassroots support and that’s what scares them. He’s not their candidate but ours.

      Like

  13. acumenmac says:

    Sunshine State “Pro-Trump”. Floridians for Trump and will vote to prove it.
    Trump 2016 – For the Future of America!

    Liked by 2 people

  14. chojun says:

    This is a good opportunity to highlight how polls work and why it is overt dishonesty that the media doesn’t explain poll mechanics, in an effort to shape voter behavior. As a pollster, you make a HYPOTHESIS about election demographics. This hypothesis might be based on historical findings from other similar elections, or an educated estimate based on voter registration, party ID, and the various issues in current public discourse and their importance to the voters. Or, the hypothesis can be based ENTIRELY ON A FICTIONAL MEDIA NARRATIVE. This is IMPORTANT to understand.

    These educated guesses – the hypotheses, are what comprise the poll’s model. The model is an aggregate of the demographics that the pollster believes will vote. Here’s an example.

    There are ~320M Americans, but the pollster can’t poll all of them. So he will take a sample. The bigger the sample, the lower the margins of error. I believe a sample of 2,000 usually yields a 3% MoE (someone correct me if I’m wrong). The MoE is calculated using certain principles of statistics and is an indicator of how confident one can be that the result will be very close to the estimation.

    So which Americans will the pollster call? 2,000 random names from the phone book won’t necessarily be scientifically representative of who will actually vote. This is where the pollster’s model comes in. John Pollster’s likely-voter hypothesis is as follows: “I believe on election day, 42% Dems will vote, 38% Republicans will vote, and 20% independents will vote.” Imagine that these voters were represented by different colored marbles in 3 different giant barrels. He pulls 42 blue marbles (randomly) from the blue barrel, 38 marbles from the red barrel, and 20 marbles from the white barrel. If marbles were voters and they could talk, he asks them the various poll questions. Who will you vote for, Mr. Marble?

    Aha! The results are in. Clinton has 41%, Trump has 39%, and other answers have 20% among likely voters in this example. So what do we take away from this? Trump is LOSING! Or is he? Remember back to the poll model above. The pollster made a pretty arbitrary guess that 42% of democrats would vote. What is this number founded upon? What is the factual basis of such an estimate? Of that 42%, what portion is extremely likely to vote, and what portion is less enthusiastic? What factual basis gave Joe Pollster reason to give Democrats a 4% sample advantage in the poll model?

    Don’t be deceived by the “Scientific” polls. Yes, they’re ‘scientific’. In the same way that payday loans are a ‘business’. But remember that science is founded upon the scientific method – the hypothesis – which is an educated guess affirmed or debunked by research. Media polls, despite masquerading as scientific, credible polls, have at their very foundation and weaved into their fabric a clever bias which perpetrates a narrative.

    In this case, the narrative is that Clinton is winning despite everything Trump’s doing to the contrary. Everybody keep your heads up and press on til’ November – we are WINNING!

    Liked by 3 people

    • susiepuma says:

      This is why Governor Palin insists that ‘polls’ are for strippers and cross country skiers……polls are based upon the ‘political’ entity that is requesting the polls………..they are rigged/adjusted just like statistics and economics……………can be manipulated to mean whatever one wants them to me……………….if we regard the media as full of lyin’ liars, why do we believe anything they say about a poll……………kinda like sitting the fox to watch the foxes….screw the chickens…………………………..

      Liked by 2 people

      • Wend says:

        I had a great postcard I got in Europe, unfortunately long lost. It was a picture of this big old red fox with his head in the hen house! The title was in four languages on the back-English, French, Italian and German. The German was of course the funniest-“Fox in Hen House-Fuchs in Hunnerstall”! Wish I still had it. And I love the Palin line-

        Like

  15. Melissa says:

    I live in Florida and I will be shocked if Trump doesn’t win. Trump signs everywhere. People seem excited. I drive down the road and someone has a huge billboard sign built in their backyard that says trump. It’s awesome. I understand this is just where I live but gives me hope 🙂

    Liked by 2 people

    • Ad rem says:

      Welcome to the Tree House Melissa! Thanks for giving us your Florida perspective. 😀

      Like

    • justfactsplz says:

      I also live in Florida and all I see are Trump signs. I haven’t seen any Hillary signs at all. I am confident Florida will be a landslide for Trump. My hubby just corrected me and said he has seen one Hildabeast sign that read “Hillary For Prison”.

      Like

  16. WeThePeople2016 says:

    Great analysis SD. Trump will win Florida, I have no doubt. He will also win PA and Ohio.

    Like

  17. Trump will win FL, NV, NH, IA, and PA. That gets him to 264. I don’t see how he loses Michigan, Bernie won it Trump won it. How is Michigan not in play right now, he should have a better shot there than Ohio. Still think Trump will win at least 1 surprise New England state that isn’t NH.

    Anyone from Michigan here have a clue what’s happening up der eh?
    Anyone from New England – not including Vermont – have an idea if Trump can win a state besides NH? Maine ? Road Island ? Connecticut ?

    Like

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