Before getting to the data (Full pdf’s below) here’s the CBS presentation of their Battleground State Polling:
Here are the polling stats from the individual states:
And here’s where things get weird. According to the poll, Texas voters overwhelming think Donald Trump is the better candidate to win the general election. Texas voters also think Donald Trump has a better overall “outsider” status and ability to be un-influenced by special interests.
However, Senator Ted Cruz is leading the poll ? The top-line result, doesn’t seem to match up with all of the underlying data. Very odd….
The methodology of the polling (and the overall CBS view of the polls) is available here.
However, I cannot reconcile the Texas voter divergence from all other polls which show a direct correlation between “most likely to win” and “most favorable” candidate. The CBS Texas result is the only poll in the current presidential election cycle (over 200 polls reviewed) where the top line preference is NOT also considered the “most likely to win”.
Why would anyone vote in a primary for a person they did not view as standing a chance to win in the general election. This simply doesn’t make sense.
To highlight the point, also consider this perspective amid Nevada voters from last week:
Hopefully this Texas poll is an outlier, and the Texas electorate will support the strongest candidate in the field. The Texas stakes are highest for Ted Cruz who must win in order to retain viability after Super-Tuesday. If Cruz were to lose Texas, he would be under great pressure to withdraw from the race.