CBS Pre-Super Tuesday Battleground State Polls: Georgia, Virginia, Texas…

Before getting to the data (Full pdf’s below) here’s the CBS presentation of their Battleground State Polling:

Here are the polling stats from the individual states:

battleground Georgia

battleground virginia

And here’s where things get weird.  According to the poll, Texas voters overwhelming think Donald Trump is the better candidate to win the general election.  Texas voters also think Donald Trump has a better overall “outsider” status and ability to be un-influenced by special interests.

However, Senator Ted Cruz is leading the poll ?  The top-line result, doesn’t seem to match up with all of the underlying data.   Very odd….

battleground Texas

The methodology of the polling (and the overall CBS view of the polls) is available here.

However, I cannot reconcile the Texas voter divergence from all other polls which show a direct correlation between “most likely to win” and “most favorable” candidate.  The CBS Texas result is the only poll in the current presidential election cycle (over 200 polls reviewed) where the top line preference is NOT also considered the “most likely to win”.

Why would anyone vote in a primary for a person they did not view as standing a chance to win in the general election.   This simply doesn’t make sense.

To highlight the point, also consider this perspective amid Nevada voters from last week:

Hopefully this Texas poll is an outlier, and the Texas electorate will support the strongest candidate in the field.   The Texas stakes are highest for Ted Cruz who must win in order to retain viability after Super-Tuesday.  If Cruz were to lose Texas, he would be under great pressure to withdraw from the race.

trump rubio and cruz handshake

This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, Marco Rubio, media bias, Predictions, Professional Idiots, propaganda, Ted Cruz, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

248 Responses to CBS Pre-Super Tuesday Battleground State Polls: Georgia, Virginia, Texas…

  1. Grace says:

    Could the difference come from the higher percentage (12%) that have already voted in Texas? I heard somewhere that Texans could vote as early as January, and most of the dirt on Cruz hadn’t come out at that time. So, even though they’re trending strongly toward Trump, he’ll have to overcome that early Cruz advantage. Unfortunately, I don’t know where I heard that. Probably TV. Maybe someone from Texas knows more.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Grace says:

      OK, here’s the voting schedule for Texas. Looks like the primary ballots were to be mailed out on January 16 to those who had requested them. Don’t know how many people did, but those voters could conceivably have voted in January. The first day of In-Person Early voting was February 16. Here’s the link with the schedule:
      http://elections.mytimetovote.com/dates/texas.html

      Liked by 6 people

    • joshua says:

      this is a true statement about early voting…lots of older folks vote early to avoid crowds….includes evangelicals..lots of polling places are at church locations…..I voted early for Trump, and the Cruz trash was not out and understood by lots of folks, and the Governor of Texas had endorsed Ted…so my wife (not a CTH reader or suspicious of the two cuban boys), offset my vote by voting for Cruz…both of us voted against Rep Pete Sessions though and voted for the teaparty candidate….

      Teaparty Express did massive robo calling get out votes for Cruz…still going on today (Sunday)

      I think the decisions to vote for Cruz happened a long time ago and those folks just closed their minds to some New York Billionaire who they think is just insulting and embarrassing….that is the narrative promoted….hopefully, we have some serious momentum going before Tuesday.

      Liked by 2 people

      • parteagirl says:

        I am hopeful that Pete Sessions will be forced into a runoff. I heard about some internal polling that had him below 50.

        Liked by 1 person

        • DanMan says:

          I agree with this. Same for Culberson and Brady.

          Like

          • Brady was one man office boy at Woodlands when I interviewed him in 1991. Geo Mitchell was Forbes rated at $850 million. Mitchell backed Brady for Texas house, got $250 million Texas bonds for Woodland Mall, paid by mall sales tax. Mitchell sold mall for $270 million.

            Brady gave Mitchell $520 million because he wants to represent YOU.

            Like

    • cycle1 says:

      Yes and I agree that it could make a difference due to the absentee voting being earlier since Trump probably didn’t have as much momentum at that point and it is Cruz’s home state

      Liked by 2 people

    • owentt says:

      Texas is an open primary state and it’s a bit hard to build a likely voter model for a primary, especially when there’s a primary for the other party with similar candidates and even more so when independents lean heavily to one particular candidate in each party. Modeling who will get the delegates is even harder.

      Bernie appears to have abandoned Texas in favor of MN, CO, MA, and OK. Three of those (MN, CO, MA) are the states where Bernie is likely to win on Super Tuesday. Democrats always use strict proportional allocation by district so running up the score in your winning states is indispensable.

      That means Bernie is not focusing on TX and we know from NH that independents often have Bernie and Trump as first and second choices in some order. Independents can be fickle but a weak Bernie presence should help Trump, especially in blue districts.

      Trump could still lose because a lot of TX Republicans may want to reward Cruz for being what he promised when he was elected. He promised to be an uncompromising extremist and he is. Most voters may not like uncompromising extremists or expect them to win in November but it sure beats what another senator did who betrayed his promises and trails in his home state by twenty points.

      There are statewide proportional delegates, but most TX delegates are assigned by district. If one candidate gets a majority, he wins all three delegates in that district. If two pass 20% but neither passes 50%, the top two get two and one delegate each.

      Eleven of the thirty-six districts have a strong Democratic majority and one more leans Democratic in presidential years. Republican turnout there is likely to be very low. Those are places where a moderate candidate that appeals to independents should win and may even get a majority. It’s an opportunity to run up the score in delegates even without a statewide win.

      One twist in those districts is that about half are mostly black and about half are mostly Hispanic. Texas is gerrymandered in two ways. The Republican Party gerrymanders to ensure GOPe candidates a majority of districts without ever facing a competitive electorate, thus preventing any accountability to voters. But the national Voting Rights Act is interpreted to also require a number of completely safe districts for racial minorities ensuring racial machine politicians win with no accountability to voters. Therefore the ideal is achieved where the population has an illusion of democracy and both parties share the graft with no vulgar citizens to get in the way.

      I expect Trump might win big in the black districts. I’m not sure about the Hispanic ones. A lot of Texas voting Hispanics are sick of illegal immigration. Mexicans were in Texas before Americans; it used to be Mexican territory until 1836. The Mexicans should have built a wall — and made America pay for it. But many will feel ethnic solidarity with recent arrivals and won’t like Trump’s plans. So I have no idea what the Republican minority will do in those districts.

      Liked by 5 people

      • Is it possible that many Reagan democrats will vote Trump in the primary and this is not included in this Texas poll? Maybe I am reading this wrong, but my understanding is they are free to vote for either party in the primary but that they have to vote that same party all down the line for the other races? Do I have this correct?

        “Voters in the state of Texas do not have to publicly identify themselves as a member of a political party when they register to vote. When they go to the polls they can freely choose either the Republican ticket or the Democratic ticket. However, voters cannot vote across party lines. Once a person chooses the ticket they will vote on they can only decide between candidates of that party. Voters in Texas receive a new voter registration card every year so they don’t have to vote on the same ticket each primary election.

        “However, the system in place doesn’t favor the independent voter. It still requires voters to pick a side rather than vote their conscience. Many independent voters believe that one side doesn’t necessarily have all the answers. There might be one candidate that speaks to them who is a member of one party, but in another race their favored candidate might be running on the other party’s ticket.”

        Liked by 4 people

        • KH says:

          Keep in mind a not insignificant amount of “Reagan Democrats” are dead.

          Liked by 2 people

        • boutis says:

          Primary voters may not “split” tickets. You get a ballot with only the candidates with the party you pick at the polling door to vote for unlike the general election where you can vote R for president and D for sheriff. My wife has a friend who is running for sheriff as a Dem. She thought about voting in the Dem primary to vote for him but decided voting for Trump was more important and only a few offices even have a Dem candidate this go round. I think he is an idiot for for running as a Dem and tough tootles if he doesn’t get any votes in a Dem primary because everyone in the county (almost) is voting R this time around.

          Liked by 4 people

        • elena19501 says:

          I am Reagan Democrat (1984) and voted early on Republican ticket and I was able to pick from that ticket who I wanted to vote.

          Liked by 2 people

      • stobberdobber says:

        I am not sure on what you said about the Hispanics feeling solidarity on the illegals. There was a group of voters, about 60 on one of the channels after the last debate. They were mostly for Cruz but they were asked if they were offended by any of Trumps statements about the illegals crossing the border and NONE said they were. A show of hands showed most of the group were of Hispanic origins, about 80%.

        Liked by 3 people

        • boutis says:

          The professional agitiators, La Raza types, are offended. Regular citizens of Spanish ancestry are not. They are like everyone else and tired of paying for them. The ones who are naturalized, followed the rules, do not like the border hoppers who they see as criminals. The “pity us” does not work as no one pitied them when they were working their buns off and doing everything right.

          Liked by 2 people

    • DanMan says:

      what dirt?

      Like

  2. craigusc says:

    Texas will be close. The others on Tuesday will be all Trump.

    Liked by 11 people

  3. irvingtwosmokes says:

    Not buying the Texas numbers. If Trump takes Houston metro counties and the Dallas ones it will be over.

    Liked by 24 people

    • Grace says:

      Oh, I hope you’re right! I want to see him sweep the whole thing! If it’s not close, they can’t cheat! Right now, I’m just praying Cruz doesn’t hit the 20% threshold in GA. That’s the trigger for proportional assignment of delegates. If he fails, GA will become winner-take-all.

      Liked by 13 people

      • irvingtwosmokes says:

        The Georgia poll is junk. The graph has a MOE of 7 but the pdf has a MOE 5.9. Which is it dumbass pollsters?

        Liked by 7 people

      • drdeb says:

        I too hope Cruz does not reach 20% in Ga. In rural N.GA there are unfortunately a number of Cruz supporters. I volunteered for the Trump in Atlanta campaign and the support was YUGE. I am saying my prayers for A Trump victory especially in GA and TEXAS given the large number of delegates.

        Liked by 5 people

      • mariner says:

        That’s assuming Rubio doesn’t reach 20% either.

        Like

        • jackphatz says:

          Is there any state Rubio could win Tuesday?

          Liked by 1 person

          • KH says:

            TX – Cruz +10 (if he hits 50 he’s back in the race, if <40 he’s still dead)
            Expect a 117/38 (give or take) on the delegate breakdown; if by some change he gets less than 99 delegates it’s a disaster for ted.

            GA is Trump; question is the margin is it +7 or +10; I’m in north ATL… feels like +10, but who knows Rubio and Cruz have been running wall-to-wall ads here for last week, to the point I think it might backfire they’re run so often, but flip side is maybe they’ve made a dent.

            As for a state Rubio could in theory win, MN. Don’t know what’s going on up there, even Kasich might have a shot it’s definitely more Rubio\Mailman ‘ish favorable territory.

            Liked by 4 people

          • elena19501 says:

            Since Rubio was talking real thrush whole weekend, I think that he will be on the very bottom of 5…

            Liked by 1 person

    • joshua says:

      Dallas County Texas is Democrat dominant…the GOP is sloppy and lazy except for individual candidate campaigning. Dallas Morning News endorsed Hilliary and Kasick…

      Liked by 2 people

    • shallbe4 says:

      If Texas is close its proportional delegates so Trump should do very well. Unless Cruz gets over 50% which I doubt that he will because he has not been that popular of a Senator.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Finalage says:

      Trump definitely looks strong in Dallas area where he has campaigned but Houston is a mystery. Cruz should win this because he has the whole Texas establishment behind him. Just hope that Trump prevents Ted from getting 50% and call it a victory. A close 2nd would be great.

      Liked by 2 people

  4. parteagirl says:

    Local talk radio hosts here in Texas, plus the endorsement of Governor Abbott, may sway those that aren’t paying close attention to vote for Cruz. I don’t know what to make of that Texas poll, all I have are anecdotes of neighbors voting Trump, a wonderful Ft Worth rally on Friday, no Cruz signs anywhere in the Dallas area, but no Trump signs either, yet a busy Trump campaign headquarters full at least 20 people making calls on a Sunday evening.

    I will say this, even though early voting is popular, most people in my area prefer to wait until election day- way more than half, I’d say. On Tuesday night, we’ll know. I am past ready to have Cruz exit the race, though. The sooner, the better. And my guess is that a majority of Texan Cruz supporters go to Trump.

    Liked by 22 people

  5. kinthenorthwest says:

    Texas has got to be the weirdest state when you look at how Cruz screwed them over with his Canadian citizenship.

    Liked by 25 people

  6. cycle1 says:

    Hmmm…. It’s interesting that in Texas only 54% said they are very likely to vote. In contrast Virginia was at 70% and Georgia 64% for very likely to vote… Oh, and look how Texas has way more absentee voters. This might explain a little bit of uptick in the Cruz vote being higher since it is his home state and Trump May not have had as high a popularity at the point in time the absentee ballot was cast…(that is Trump gained a lot of his momentum perhaps after the absentee ballot was already cast ).

    Liked by 2 people

    • cycle1 says:

      Leads me to ask how many rallies did trump have an Texas over the last few days and did they draw a lot of people?

      Liked by 1 person

    • jimrtex says:

      Texas has two types of early voting – in person and by-mail. Mail voting – which some mistakenly refer to as “absentee voting” is for cause only: (1) age or disability; (2) absence from the county for the entire early-voting period; or (3) confinement in jail. You have to apply for a mail ballot, and do it before a certain date. I have to drive a couple of miles to mail a letter. Before the general election, the parties will distribute applications to identified Republicans over 65 (which primary you vote in is public record, it simply has no bearing on your future voting past the primary runoff). If a campaign was organized, it would send out applications to likely supporters of the candidate. If you are over 65 and in reasonable health, it is easier to vote early in person, or election day.

      Anyone can vote early in person. Early voting is at early voting locations. Larger counties will have dozens – and you can vote at any one in your county – close to work, along the commute, or near your home. Early voting is for the two weeks before an election – Monday (Tuesday this year because of the President’s Day Holiday through Friday, including Saturday and Sunday of the intermediate weekend).

      If anything, the polling results for early voting were low – though the polling dates overlapped the 2nd week of early voting and voting was especially heavy on Friday.

      If you add the 54% who said that they definitely will vote, with the 12% who already had voted, it is comparable to the other states, Some people will fib to a pollster (and themselves). But they would be less likely to do so, about having already voted. If it were completely after the election, some will fib about whether they voted. But now they can say, “I haven’t voted, but I definitely plan to do so.” Some of those with plans will find an excuse – “I was planning to vote, but then on Tuesday, the sun came up in the East, so I waited, and then in the afternoon, the sun went down in the West. You know, sometimes the unexpected just happens.”

      Liked by 2 people

      • Trent Telenko says:

        If anything, the polling results for early voting were low – though the polling dates overlapped the 2nd week of early voting and voting was especially heavy on Friday.

        Friday early voting at my East Dalas precinct was very heavy — 10-15 minute wait at 4:30pm — with the wait being almost 1/2 hour when my wife voted later in the evening . (Polls closed at 7pm).

        There were seven voting machines each for D & R parties. The R machines were all full with waiting while it averaged 3-to-4 voters during the time I was there.

        I don’t think I have ever seen such a disproportionate party turnout in the 10 years I’ve been voting in Dallas.

        FYI, Dallas was a GOP stronghold until Hurricane Katrina brough New Orlean’s 9th Ward to Dallas. The year after the resettlement, Dallas county flipped Democrat.

        Liked by 4 people

        • Trent Telenko says:

          Grr… that should have read:

          “The R machines were all full with waiting while it averaged 3-to-4 voters for D Machines during the time I was there.”

          Liked by 2 people

        • jimrtex says:

          For Dallas County, the last Friday had as many voters as the first 6 days (Tuesday-Sunday) combined.

          Monday and Tuesday of the second week (2 days) had half as many votes as the first 6 days (1/2 the vote in 1/3 as many days). Then the Wednesday and Thursday each had about as many votes as Monday and Tuesday combined, with Thursday heavier. And then Friday matched the Wednesday-Thursday turnout.

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          T#####
          W#####
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          F#####
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          The first week, Democrats outnumbered Republicans, but by the close, Republicans outvoted Democrats by 10%. The pattern for Democrats was similar to Republicans, except they didn’t start the final surge until Thursday.

          The Dallas County elections website has turnout figures for each early voting location.

          Like

  7. Ruebacca says:

    The Scandinavian fairy tail is not working on Black communities in the south. Trump will face the crook not the commie.

    Liked by 6 people

  8. CatherinesMom says:

    I think Texas will go to Cruz. I have done calling for Trump Campaign. What I found out is that Cruz goes to churches and preaches. It touches people. Then I hear “Trump just barks”. Pretty consistently. In fact so much so, that I think it is a “thing” within those church groups.

    On a personal note, phone calls:
    I have family that live in Texas. One is a pastor, and his family are all Cruz. My twin (grrr) is apolitical. She loves what Trumps says and that is as far as she goes with it. I can’t fly down to drag her to vote, I threatened no more peanut brittle for our birthday and she still doesn’t care. She is busy, works 18 hr days as a nurse. But the good news is that my father, mother live in a gated community outside Plano, TX and they are so in for Trump. Glass shards crawling for him. Pop has lost a lot of business to China. Just have a fair, equitable trade would make Pop jump for joy.

    Liked by 23 people

    • irvingtwosmokes says:

      Have you got a good idea geographically? the E. TX and W. TX evangelicals are not big enough to offset the metro areas

      Liked by 2 people

      • CatherinesMom says:

        Great question. Nearly 60% of my calls appear to be West Texas for Cruz. The other area of evangelicals that I know were for Cruz is in Pasadena area, highly concentrated there as well. The rest of the calls were metro Dallas (north) and south past San Antonio all for Trump. In total it would seem that the graph used for CBS is correct, with the calls I made as of Thursday, 2/25 and Friday calls 2/26.

        Liked by 3 people

        • irvingtwosmokes says:

          If Trump has the I-35 corridor Cruz is toast

          Liked by 4 people

        • irvingtwosmokes says:

          Of course I’m basing my thought on the 18yrs I lived there 17 yrs ago…lol

          Liked by 4 people

        • czarowniczy says:

          I have a son who’s a member of a megachurch north of the Dallas area and there’s not a lot of Cruz supporters in it, they are Trump hardliners.

          Liked by 9 people

          • Interesting. Do you know the name of that megachurch north of Dallas area?

            I found these 3 megachurches in the Dallas area (I think they are in Dallas):

            Pastor Jefress – Total Trump supporter
            Joel Osteen – said “Trump is a great communicator” and seems like they are the type of evangelicals that would like Trump
            John Hagee – He met with Trump to pray with him, and Cruz has courted his vote but I can’t find anything on which way he leans. However, I DO know that in 2008 he loved Huckabee BUT said he chose McCain because he had more “chance to win” and that Huck didn’t. We were all crushed at the Huck campaign over this

            So I would say Hagee would vote the way the GOP tells him which could mean Rubio, however, since it looks good for Trump and most think Trump will win, they could lean Trump. In any case the fact that Hagee has not come out and endorsed any one candidate speaks volumes NOT good for Cruz.

            I’ve been away from that scene for a while and I don’t know Texas at all.

            Liked by 2 people

          • Bull Durham says:

            That’s because of the cult sect he belongs to—Dominionist.
            They believe in Cruz is the face of God and he is going to rule the world.

            Liked by 2 people

        • keebler AC says:

          These evangelicals who say they are encouraged by Rafael Ted Cruz going to church need to be concerned that he lies 70 to 90% of the time. He’s no Christian, he’s a pharisee who lies and goes to church to fulfill his charlatan father’s prophecy that he is to conquer all religious followers and wealth as Spanish King Conquisitor.

          Jerry Falwell, has he not also spoken out against Rafael Ted’s Dominionist agenda? These evangelicals voting for Rafael Ted best for Trump or stay home rather than elect the Devil’s tail.

          Liked by 5 people

          • lawrencepaul1 says:

            Yes they are Ted,
            That’s why they’re voting Trump.

            Liked by 2 people

          • tz says:

            It is hard to explain Dominist theology, and I’m not sure how much hybrid dispensationalism is in there.
            The short example is moving the embassy to Jerusalem even if that will cause terrorism and war from the remaining Arab allies.
            Israel – the Biblical one ended in 70 AD. Jews have a secular, socialist state that is more pro-abortion than the USA and in 2012, 70% of american Jews voted for Obama. But somehow the Bible says sacrificing your self, family, and country to Jewish Progressives will return a huge blessing.
            (I am not anti or pro Israel no more,or less than France – neither are the USA and we need to uncripple ourselves and become great again, and I’m for whatever and whomever helps).

            Like

    • Jayne says:

      It drives me nuts that Evangelicals are voting for Cruz. Really, really nuts.

      Liked by 13 people

      • parteagirl says:

        When my church hired its security guards, the I bet the first interview question was not “What’s your faith?” but “Can you protect those inside?”

        Liked by 6 people

      • Jayne, I wouldn’t worry about the evangelicals of Cruz, they seem to me to be the outsider evangelicals, with the exception of Tony Perkins and James Dobson, who in my opinion endorsed too early (before the cheating and lying of Cruz) and may just feel locked into that decision. Bickel is an outsider evangelical and he has endorsed Cruz.

        None of the mega churches that I know of are going for Cruz nor have really come out for him in Texas. If polls are up in TX for Cruz that may have more to do with him being from Texas, than evangelicals there. I think Trump will win more evangelicals in Texas than Cruz.

        Just my opinion.

        Liked by 5 people

        • Jayne says:

          I know Copeland out of Eagle Mountain supports him or did. I foolishly tried to reason with people at Charisma magazine’s site and it didn’t matter how many links I posted, they wouldn’t accept that he is a liar.

          Liked by 3 people

          • I left Charisma et al back in 2008 when I saw what cowards they were not to speak out against Obama. I consider them CHURCHIANITY.

            LOL! ah ah ha ha OMG! I just did a google search and saw this:

            “Kenneth Copeland Declares That Ted Cruz Has Been ‘Called And Anointed’ By God To Be The Next President” and ol’ Kenneth is prosperity preacher.

            LOL! However, I think Kenneth Copeland might have changed his mind after seeing fallen Pastor Ted lose 3 states in a row after Iowa and the cheating that came out about Ted AFTER Kenneth made that statement (he made the statement Feb 5, AFTER Cruz was awarded first place in Iowa and before he lost every state thereafter).

            See more at: http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/kenneth-copeland-declares-ted-cruz-has-been-called-and-anointed-god-be-next-president#sthash.cZQAS3ip.dpuf

            Liked by 1 person

            • Jayne says:

              I want to know how Copeland can say that and it not conflict with his tax exempt status.

              Liked by 3 people

              • Good question. Makes ya wonder then what was their real excuse for not speaking out when Obama usurped the Constitution. They made it sound like it was their tax exempt status. Turns out they were LYING.

                Cowards. Nothing but cowards.

                Liked by 1 person

                • Jayne says:

                  I will no longer go to any church that has a tax exempt status as they are owned by the government.

                  I did some research once about the decline of Christianity in the US and a couple of years stood out: When tax exempt status came into play via the IRS, Roe v. Wade, and when the Internet went mainstream.

                  Like

        • 1american1st says:

          I felt like Cruz was doing a con job on the evangelicals in Iowa. I think a lot of people saw that…using God to further his political career…. using phraseology like: “In the body of Christ pull back from the abyss”. As a Christian I kept thinking that something’s not right here. He’s not running for Pope, he’s running for a political office.

          untrusTED

          Liked by 2 people

    • parteagirl says:

      That’s why I’m hanging Trump door hangers in my neighborhood instead of phoning, which only reaches those with a land line.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Could the Sessions endorsement help in this situation? Where those that thought Cruz was the conservative, now because of Sessions, vote Trump?

      Liked by 1 person

    • shallbe4 says:

      That’s very interesting. Did your parents say that a lot of older people are going for Trump?

      Like

    • Finalage says:

      Texas is likely for Cruz. But it should be his only victory but watch Arkansas and Oklahoma closely. Trump has to win those too or it will give new life to Cruz campaign. Sessions endorsement was yuge yesterday and hopefully will swing folks to stop flirting with Cruz.

      The lack of polling in MN tells me shenanigans are afoot there and that GOPe will be stuffing ballots. Santorum beat Romney there 4 years ago (as well as defeating Romney in CO).

      Like

      • Jayne says:

        I’m in OK and I go vote tomorrow. I haven’t seen any yard signs, bumper stickers, etc. for Cruz or Rubio. Only Trump and Bernie.

        Like

    • Your folks live in my neck of the woods.🙂

      Like

  9. Bull Durham says:

    What is the expected turnout?

    Mail in ballots were reported to be 250,000, with large percentage for Cruz. So Trump would need 150,000 extra to match, as a guess. If the turnout is enormous as other states have been and Cruz underperformed, Trump can catch or beat him.

    Liked by 3 people

    • MVW says:

      So, according to Glen Beck we are ‘brown shirts’ and indecent? GB is always playing the heroic victim and blaming others. Same MO of an addict. Sad.

      Liked by 14 people

    • aur1640 says:

      Maybe he should look at himself in the mirror… He’s the one who is grotesque and bizarre in which his shows are being cancelled. He should just go away!!

      Liked by 7 people

      • rayzorback says:

        I cancelled the Dumb Mass last year… And can’t stand his radio show anymore…
        The DIK with the 2 NUTS ….. I just turn them OFF!

        Liked by 3 people

      • When I saw Glenn Beck during a live performance in San Fransisco back in 2002, I thought he was great and really funny. Then a couple years later he you tubed a video where he was in the hospital crying and acting really bizarre so I lost interest until he was on Fox. I watch him all the time and thought he did an excellent job describing the Caliphate before anyone knew what that was.

        My goodness how far he has fallen, unfortunately something has drastically changed in him.

        Liked by 6 people

    • wheatietoo says:

      Glenn said….he “stands for the Constitution”?

      Hey Glenn, you’re campaigning for a guy who stomps on the Constitution, just by running for President!
      Cruz is not eligible. Period.

      You are a fraud, Glenn.

      Liked by 7 people

    • hrivkan says:

      Cruz supporters are the worse i have seen as far as being indecent and nasty people on other blogs i’ve read. They act like the liberal trolls and most times you can’t tell the difference. Trump supporters are more positive and decent people. Beck is an idiot and love that his show is being cancelled.

      Liked by 11 people

    • Big Jake says:

      They’re canceling your show because you are a whack job, you idiot.

      Liked by 8 people

    • Smokeygrl says:

      That Beck video is interesting. The man seems to seriously be having some health issues. I have nothing against Beck nor his support for Cruz, to each his own, but he is wrong about in his dismissal of Trump supporters as “brown shirts” I have seen the most vitriol and awful things being said to describe Trump supporters all over the net..Beck joined that group. Perhaps it’s just politics has gotten so fractured, and the internet allows anonymous posting, people’s more base natures rule. I always try to keep it civil, even if I disagree, but I wont be anyone’s punching bag.

      Liked by 5 people

    • OK, I said basically the same thing before, but I think it bears repeating.
      PROJECT OUTREACH:
      We need every vote this November. If any of the Republican base stays home, we most likely lose. So I plead with all of you to do two things when you post over at redstate or the blaze or nationalreview, etc. —
      1. Emphasis the importance of immigration. This is an irreversible change to the American electorate. If we screw this up now, it doesn’t matter what happens in 2020 or later.
      2. Also focus on the open SCOTUS seat. Hillary will be able to appoint a left leaning judge to replace Scalia, the most influential and important conservative justice of the past 30 years. On top of that, she will also provide a convenient exit for Ginsburg and Stevens, locking in a liberal majority for the rest of our lives. It won’t matter who we elect to the presidency in 2020, and it won’t matter what laws get passed by Congress, if the Court has a left majority that can strike everything down.
      So please, instead of tearing down Cruz or Rubio, emphasize why it is important that we all come together to focus on these two issues.

      Liked by 2 people

    • drdeb says:

      Hi Dear One,
      Amazing that Glenn is so out of touch with reality that he does not realize what he is doing! It drives me nuts to be in my vehicle in the AM and to only get Beck on SiriusXM Patriot station. It is like a giggle fest with his bud Pat as well as an infomercial for Cruz. This is one of the few occasions when I am forced to change the station to FNN. I hope the Patriot ditches Beck. And to think, I used to really like what Beck had to say. He has LOST IT! He needs our prayers.

      Liked by 2 people

    • kenramsey says:

      Radio stations would not be thinking of cancelling Beck’s show if his schtick lately were popular. It’s a business, and one starved, absolutely starved, for an audience. Beck’s been going around pissing off a big chunk of their audience, radio stations hate that. Just hate it. Look at Beck even here. He’s equating support for Trump with ignorance and with malice and with hatreds. It’s like he’s purposely trying to tick off the audience. They will change the radio station or turn off the radio. If you own that radio station is the last thing you need.

      Liked by 4 people

    • This flake thinks it’s sad that Americans don’t think like him as he knocks all Trump supporters, then wonders why he is losing stations. His uncontrollable power trip has damaged him, that’s what’s sad.

      Liked by 3 people

    • yakmaster2 says:

      Brown shirts means NAZIS and I loathe Beck using that term to define Trump supporters. To equate a grassroots populist movement and/or love of country to Hitler’s rise to power could only come from an unbalanced mind. Beck is engaging in the extremism he accuses us of. He should get his meds adjusted to better control his mania!

      Liked by 5 people

      • justfactsplz says:

        Lord only knows what else they will end up calling us. It is so degrading to be called Brown Shirts and Vulgarians. But we know the truth about ourselves. Cold Anger.

        Liked by 2 people

      • boutis says:

        That is a Democrat tactic to shut people up. Demonize and dehumanize. Shut up. It doesn’t work anymore. Pretending you are smarter than others and sneering. Glenn Beck is not more intelligent than I am. Nor is Ted Cruz. I have not gotten myself into a big mess and try to bully my way out. Cruz ran for the Senate to run for president just like Rubio. They aren’t even original.

        Like

      • Americafirst16 says:

        Glen, according to you my shirt may be brown, but I am absolutely sure your underware will be that color after Super Tuesday. GO TRUMP !

        Like

    • tg159 says:

      Old Glen is sharping his knife and the only question is whether Ted Cruz will get it in the back or in the ribs.

      Liked by 2 people

    • lawrencepaul1 says:

      That fasting thing doesn’t seem to by having much of an effect on multi chinned Glen.

      Like

    • georgiafl says:

      Beck is enacting the three Ps:
      – Projection – projecting nastiness of his own heart (and Cruzbots) on Trump
      – Propaganda – name-calling and labeling Trump supporters
      – Pity-pandering – Playing the victim – pandering for sympathy

      Like

  10. Wasn’t it the CBS poll 2 days before SC that had Trump losing to Cruz? Or was that NV? Anyway, I see a trend. It is 2 days before the TX primary and look who the same folks say is winning… again…

    Liked by 10 people

  11. Another Proud Texan says:

    I voted on Wednesday evening with my husband, and at the courthouse in my county(just west of Fort Worth), there were several Trump signs, and 1 little Cruz sign. No one else was represented at all. 🙂 Trump got 2 votes from my household, and everyone I have spoken with is all in for Trump!!

    Liked by 19 people

    • parteagirl says:

      The lack of yard signs is so odd this year. I think it’s more telling that there aren’t any Cruz signs- the Trump supporters are laying low because there’s a lot of pious vote shaming going on around here.

      I got a trunk full of Trump signs to place all around my precinct voting place bright and early on Tuesday morning. People are going to think “Whoa, where’d those come from?” I’m hoping it gives them courage to vote the way we all know they really want to… for a winner!

      Liked by 18 people

    • irvingtwosmokes says:

      Tarrant, Dallas, Denton, Collin, Rockwall counties are ALOT of votes

      Liked by 2 people

  12. MSGT says:

    Heidi Cruz: “Ted will go the distance, regardless of Super Tuesday.”

    Working to strip delegates. No path to victory

    Liked by 7 people

  13. Pete V says:

    Liked by 6 people

  14. MakeAmericaGreat says:

    Any word on Arkansas?

    Like

  15. Something very odd is going on with Carson and Kasich – do either of them really believe they will win any states on Super Tuesday? Are they purposefully wanting to split the vote? I can understand Kasich doing it for his donors and the establishment but why Carson? Will both move forward with their campaigns after Super Tuesday?

    I know Kasich is establishment but his donors must be delusional or waiting for a deal from Rubio, or Cruz but it seems Cruz is the only one asking for a deal to leave the race.

    I can’t figure it out at this point.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Michelle says:

      Maybe Kasich is hanging in, at least to see Ohio through, to position himself as a Romney/Marco alternative if it goes to convention. Maybe he figures if it goes to brokered convention he’ll have a shot if he stays in.

      Liked by 6 people

    • SharonKinDC says:

      Both of them act to suppress votes for Rubio & Cruz. Trump, too, but what Ben & John siphon off could keep either both of the Cuban non-NBC candidates from hitting a minimum threshold to gain delegates.

      I find it curious there weren’t more AR polls. As for TX. The snake oil candidates Dad has been working TX Evangelicals for years. To the point those who are for Trump in some areas, may not come out in support of Trump in public. Just quietly vote.

      I noted for TX, 50% of respondents were Evangelical. Is that high? Also, VERY skewed towards women. 54% v 46% men.

      Liked by 8 people

      • mariner says:

        That doesn’t seem high to me, though I don’t have actual knowledge.

        From Wikipedia, in 2010 31% of Texans are Evangelical and 6% attend “Black church”, which for this purpose probably should count as Evangelical. In addition 13% are “Nothing in particular” which may include a fair number of Christians.

        Like

      • rayzorback says:

        Teddy Bear’s DAD is NOT “Evangelical”…. He is a Benny HINN type DOMINIONIST!

        Liked by 3 people

        • drdeb says:

          Why don’t more people realize this? And add to that the fact that Cruz does not tithe a penny.

          Liked by 2 people

        • Benny Hinn is much more of an insider evangelical than Cruz and a bit of a prosperity evangelical. Benny Hinn may be a healer and seem out there to some, but his services and crusades have tens of thousands of people, he fills up arenas like Trump. I don’t see Benny Hinn people going for Cruz AT ALL! Paula White & the TBN types like Trump and I consider her closer to the Benny Hinn evangelicals, at least they appear shows together. The prosperity type preachers go for Trump and most that I used to see on TBN.

          Benny is into the more liberal and positive happy message more than into the strict BONDAGE dark and angry stuff that Cruz is into.

          Ted and his dad are complete outsiders. IMO they are viewed just as carny-like Glenn Beck quackery by the evangelicals as they are to us. Cruz was able to trick the evangelicals in Iowa but that was his pre-cheating Carson days.

          Like

      • woohoowee says:

        If the percentage for Evangelicals at the link is accurate, 50% is too high.

        http://www.beliefnet.com/Faiths/2004/11/State-By-State-Percentage-Of-White-Evangelicals-Catholics-And-Black-Protestants.aspx

        To the best of my knowledge there were several AR polls (3 or 4) in 2015 and two in 2016. All of the AR polls I’ve seen had Trump in the lead until the last one on 2/4/16. There may have been polls I’m not aware of, though. I still think the 2/4/16 poll is hinky. For an inside glimpse of a little bit of AR politics…

        Our Lt. governor Tim Griffin (read the whole thing)

        -snip-

        From June 2002 to December 2004, Griffin was Research Director and Deputy Communications Director for Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, a high-ranking position within the RNC.

        In June 2007, Senators Edward Kennedy and Sheldon Whitehouse asked the U.S. Justice Department to investigate whether Griffin led a Republican National Committee effort to suppress the African-American vote in Jacksonville, Florida through caging during the 2004 election. Griffin called the allegations of voter suppression “absolutely, positively false” and there was no finding of any wrongdoing.[2][3]

        White House (2005–2006)[edit]

        In April 2005, Griffin began working at the White House as Karl Rove’s aide, with the title of Special Assistant to the President and Deputy Director in the Office of Political Affairs.[4]

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Griffin

        And that’s just the Lt. Governor, just the beginning. Sigh.

        Like

      • justfactsplz says:

        I believe Trump can take Texas. I think you are right about Trump supporters not going public there. In my calling around Texas most of the people who early voted did go to Cruz. Most of those who had yet to vote were either definitely planning on or considering voting for Trump. After this last debate, I did receive better feedback on Trump instead of Cruz. Cruz’s act out at the debate did not impress the evangelicals.

        Liked by 2 people

      • lawrencepaul1 says:

        Well 70%in SC claimed to be evangelicals, highest in the country and Trump won more of them than Slick Eddy for what It’s worth.

        Like

      • boutis says:

        I don’t think the pollsters are polling union members in Texas. A few areas have unions like the chemical workers, teamsters, etc. They are ALL Trump. All the way. But fairly quiet as the union heads are Hillary (I think they personally will vote for Trump too) but won’t and dare not say so. Polls are not sampling for crossover party voters or Indies that I can tell.

        Like

    • susiepuma says:

      Kasich thinks he will win in Ohio and somehow that will make him the nominee…..Carson….hmmm……guess magic delegates are just going to happen for him…delusional I guess – maybe he was sniffing the anesthesia

      Liked by 3 people

    • mariner says:

      If either of those guys gets even 1%, it could be the 1% that keeps Trump from getting 50%+1 of the delegates.

      I don’t believe Carson is GOPe, so I don’t know his agenda. If he had an issue that he vigorously advocated I could see him staying in to attract attention to his issue.

      Liked by 2 people

    • jackmcg says:

      Quite simple to me: If they drop out, Trump shoots over the beautiful 50% level in many places.

      They are now reverse-splitters. Kasich knowingly, Carson unknowingly.

      Liked by 2 people

    • MouseTheLuckyDog says:

      I think Carson is in to siphon evangelicals from Cruz, because of what Cruz did in Iowa.

      Liked by 7 people

      • KH says:

        It’s 2 things.
        1) Carson actually had a lot invested already in March 1st states, and by that I mean had spent money and gotten operations active in many of the states, so it was never a big stretch for him to stay in based on that because that money and effort was already spend. My understanding is he might even have enough to technically make it through to march 15, though basically in name only.

        2) Yes I agree his actual purpose at this point beyond #1 is take a few pct points from Cruz, and maybe even with Marco’s antics a pct or two from him. If he doesn’t get out by March 2nd then you know darn well that’s what he up too, besides just trying to get speaking slot at convention.

        Like

    • Carson is on the world’s most expensive and egotistical book tour at this point.

      Liked by 2 people

      • boutis says:

        He is going to have a third great career. Surgeon then retired, presidential candidate then quit, then speaker-author when he feels like it. Not a bad gig but vain and self serving as heck.

        Liked by 1 person

        • I’m afraid I agree, it is very vain and self-serving. But I also feel, compared to the absolute S-bend swill of the political class, the man is basically spotless. Vainglorious pursuits notwithstanding, he is no cruz or R2bio, and not even from the same homeworld as Bwernie the Bwolshevik or killary.

          Like

  16. Sandra says:

    The CBS analysis was quite good, as unbiased as I have seen on TV. It was nice that someone finally recognized that we Trump supporters LIKE Trump, it’s not just a matter of being angry with establishment GOP candidates.

    Liked by 8 people

  17. elena19501 says:

    I don’t know if anyone seen this yet:Still Report #664 – Cruz Staffer Jumps to Trump

    Liked by 13 people

  18. chojun says:

    Hey guys,

    Just a couple of thoughts.

    The numbers in Texas favor Cruz, but Trump held a huge rally there anyway. Trump has been pretty frugal and so I think his internal numbers probably show something different. My guess is that the race is very close there. It’s not unheard-of for the establishment to run propaganda polls. So let’s just stop for a second and think of the significance of Texas.

    If Cruz loses Texas, then he’s done. Any fight beyond a lost Texas would just be a waste of time and money for him. Cruz exiting the race would be a major dynamic shift leading up to the next set of southern primaries, where Rubio would be annihilated in Florida. It’s very very important for Cruz to hold Texas if the establishment’s brokered convention strategy is to play out for Rubio/Romney.

    Trump has an event in Georgia tomorrow, and we’ve been told more endorsements are coming. It might be a good time for a Newt Gingrich endorsement. I would also hope for a Huckabee endorsement tomorrow as well.

    Make no mistake, Trump effectively ended the conservative movement with Jeff Sessions’ endorsement. Now, the conservative movement is a mainstream American movement and the talkers like rush, Levin, and Hannity are mortally wounded, especially with the new York times bombshell over the weekend.

    This has been the most fascinating election in the 25 years I’ve been observing them.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Is it correct that in order to get all of the TX “at-large” delegates, you have to have over 50% of the vote? If so, Trump can throw a decent-sized wrench into the Cruzer machine by keeping that from happening.

      Here in VA, I have 2 votes (maybe 3 if I can get my son to come along) for Trump which will be cast even if he does look like a lock here. Because you can never be sure:/

      Liked by 2 people

  19. Zennalou says:

    Does anyone have any info. on
    Alaska
    Minnesota

    The polls from there are older than last months bread.
    Also an update from Arkansas would be nice as last poll I had was Feb 4th.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Big Jake says:

    Someone can vote for someone they don’t think will win based on common sense. When Pat Buchanan ran he was my choice even though I knew he couldn’t win. I knew Bush would win. I knew Dole would win. But Pat was my choice.

    It’s being a realist.

    Texans are just like that. We are a unique people.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. duchess01 says:

    That Super Tuesday delegate math is still looking awfully Trump-y
    POSTED AT 9:31 AM ON FEBRUARY 28, 2016 BY JAZZ SHAW

    http://hotair.com/archives/2016/02/28/that-super-tuesday-delegate-math-is-still-looking-awfully-trump-y/

    Some thoughts in the above – for your discernment – what you think?

    Like

  22. What’s up with the massive MoE on these polls? They’re basically junk. Can we get some real polls please?

    Liked by 3 people

  23. Make America Mexico Again says:

    Trump winning would be amazing, but even a close loss will keep the delegate count even depending on how he does district by district.

    My head says Cruz by a few points since all the baked in advantages should go to him, but Trump has done nothing but beat the conventional wisdom since day 1 so I keep a hopeful heart.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. kathyca says:

    omg I LOVE that the millennial with the face tattoo and his girlfriend both voted Trump. There’s hope for the future!

    Liked by 7 people

  25. RINOKiller says:

    The big cities will be the key for Trump in Texas, especially in the border towns and cities.

    Doesn’t Texans realize Frooze isn’t one of them?

    Liked by 1 person

    • deqwik2 says:

      If Rubio stays at 19% it would be huge for Trump.I doubt it but it would be great because Trump would take the 29 delegates off the top without sharing any. The other 21 awarded by district will mostly go to Trump I’m sure.

      Republicans have 50 presidential delegates to award in Alabama. Each candidate who finishes with at least 20% of the vote statewide will qualify for a share of 29 of those delegates. The other 21, three for each of the state’s seven congressional districts, are awarded to candidates who win at least 20% of the vote within each district.

      Like

    • Bull Durham says:

      Taken before today’s massive rally with Sessions.

      That could push him into the 40’s. The Benghazi 2 add another 5 pts. ‘Bama is big with special operators. Especially survivors of that siege at the CIA base.

      Liked by 2 people

    • KH says:

      Keep in mind undecideds have broken for Rubio more than anyone else in the last 2 contests, I think that will continue most of the states Tuesday.

      Like

  26. Someone here on CTH said this and I saved it. It gives me hope that even if Trump doesn’t win Texas, and comes in 2nd that he’s in good shape cuz Texas is proportional state:

    “As for Texas, as long as Trump finishes over 20% and Cruz below 50% everything is, mathematically, fine.”

    Like

    • p.s. and I have read (take that with a grain of salt with all the LYING going on in the press) that even if Cruz won Texas, if Trump did well there, placing a close 2nd, that that could STILL spell the end for Cruz. Cruz would really have to win over 50% of Texas to catch up with Trump, and with Cruz’ poor showing with evangelicals and moderates they don’t think that’s possible.

      It is TRUMP who does better with evangelicals than Cruz. Even though Cruz’ campaign is solidly built on him “being an evangelical” FROM HELL — wolf in sheep’s clothing.

      I think GOPe just want Cruz in to try to slow Trump down and that’s IT. I personally think Cruz is through. DONE.

      Like

      • boutis says:

        Cruz has nowhere to go. Nowhere. He has no other state. Iowa and Texas. That is it. That is why Roger Stone saying he was calling asking for a Supreme Court appointment (he can’t be un-elected from that) is so realistic sounding. He will be primaried in Texas for the Senate seat which he used shamelessly for a Obama-like run for the White House, he has no future in Senate (they will never give him a chairmanship), so what is left but going back to work as an attorney with a Goldman Sachs wife. And the GOPe won’t pay him to throw his support to Rubio because his voters will go to Trump or not vote (or leave the country they say and we should be so lucky). He is outta gas.

        Liked by 1 person

        • joshua says:

          Taco Food Truck Entrepreneur in El Paso/Juarez maybe….heck, Ted The Taco Man has a cool ring….maybe Trump will loan him some money for the truck if he puts a Trump for President sticker on it….

          Like

    • KH says:

      “As for Texas, as long as Trump finishes over 20% and Cruz below 50% everything is, mathematically, fine.”

      Well, assuming also that Trump runs second in every or nearly every CD Yes.
      Delegates will be somewhere around 99/56 – 117/38, lower side it solid\good Trump night, higher is good Cruz night. If Cruz gets > 120 then it’s a very very good night for him in tx and maybe he’s back in the game.

      Liked by 1 person

      • boutis says:

        Except I don’t think the rest of the country cares who Texas votes for. Favorite sons are like voting for your son in law. It is duty or pity voting usually.

        Like

    • viddysweet says:

      I don’t like the way they put Cruz at 42% to show him just within single digits of a 51% win.

      Liked by 1 person

  27. be says:

    We voted early for Trump. Everyone I know in our rural area is for Trump… lol even the beauty shop ladies. I feel like Texas will vote Trump. Some low fo voters might tip it to Cruz not knowing he is a lying Canadian.

    Liked by 3 people

  28. keebler AC says:

    If Texas goes to Rafael Ted Cruz because of evangelical Texans, my sympathies. You inherited a dumpkoff and reject with good reason from the oilfield and cowboys of Alberta. Please have some pride in your state and not let your religious overtones hand you another zealot who uses God’s name for his personal agenda. If you elect Cruz, you’re just another California electing Obama loser state.

    Liked by 2 people

  29. jello333 says:

    Maybe something like a “sympathy” vote? I mean maybe the people realize that Teddy is about to ride off into the sunset, and are just wanting to give him a little going-away present.

    Like

  30. Maxine says:

    I enjoyed reading everyone’s take on poll predictions for Tue. If this, than that. This poll, that poll, yada, yada. Let’s face it, the only numbers that count are votes on Tue. All I need to do to analyze the situation is to look at the massive turn out to at all of the Trump rallies. I mean, would 10’s of thousands of people stand in line for hours, backed up in traffic waiting to get into a rally if they weren’t serious supporters? If they are that committed, wouldn’t they spend time also convincing their friends and family to vote for Trump? How many of the attendees have been polled? Few, would be my guess.

    My eyes don’t lie and I trust them more than any poll. I think Mr. Trump is going to do fantastic. Analysis is fun, but it’s just that. Truth will be known only on Tues.

    Like

  31. Clc says:

    my sister in texas texted me that she voted for cruz. she is very conservative. she only watches fox news for her info. I think she will be typical of a lot of republican voters. shows how dumbed down voters are. I doubt she even knows what tpp is.

    Like

  32. 1american1st says:

    THIS IS WHY I SUPPORT TRUMP:

    Like

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