New Hampshire Consequences and The GOPe Road Map Moving Forward….

trump smile 3Last night was a Donald Trump win, period.  A YUGE win.  For context: Donald Trump beat second place, John Kasich, by more votes (currently 51,000) than Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton (currently 50,000).

A resounding victory for the vulgarian rebel alliance. Today, rejoice, dance well, be of good cheer and enjoy.

However, come sunrise we meet at the old mill, and ride south.

What does last night mean for the GOPe road map?  That’s where it gets interesting.

Forget John Kasich;  he is irrelevant as an individual candidate.  Kasich has no organization, no structural pathway, no ballot access and is not a national candidate.  However, his future endorsement of the GOPe candidate (Rubio or Bush) does bring with it his NH delegates…. but that is all.

The biggest loser is also one of our biggest loses, Governor Chris Christie.   By coming in sixth, Christie has failed to make the cut for the upcoming CBS debate.

Debate Qualifications: Top three finish in Iowa, or Top five finish in New Hampshire, or top five polling nationally or in South Carolina.  (link)

In addition to the debate issues and a financial hurdle, the sixth place finish essentially eliminates any path for Chris Christie.   [Team Marco Rubio collectively breathe a sigh of relief.]  However, with Christie gone – Jeb Bush also loses a key strategic partner for his own electoral pathway forward.

On the heels of a robotic debate performance, and with a poor fifth place New Hampshire finish, South Carolina just shifted into the MUST WIN column for Marco Rubio.

Rubio’s national strategy is dependent on building upon itself. We can expect some fireworks between camp Bush Super-PAC and camp Rubio Super-PAC over the next ten days as Rubiobot tries to ensure he regains his footing.

fireworksThe CBS South Carolina debate is structurally set up to be as beneficial for Marco Rubio as the ABC New Hampshire debate was for Jeb Bush.  New Hampshire was old GOPe money (Bush), South Carolina is new GOPe money (Rubio).

There’s a reason why Dana Perino lives amid her peers in South Carolina.

The FNB North Charleston GOP debate was filled with a Pro-Rubio audience, expect the same thing again with the CBS version.   Remember, Paul Ryan and DC leadership approved the text of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s State of the Union response speech against Donald Trump.  Nikki Haley was/is lined up to be a top-tier Rubio or Bush VP pick (again, go back to the original road map).

Almost all of the DC GOPe players who are part of the South Carolina coalition will be aligned with Marco Rubio.  Examples Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy et al.  Lindsey Graham already endorsing Jeb Bush means all of the GOPe eggs are in the GOPe camp candidates.  There will be a stacked audience in opposition to the vulgarian Trump.

Those who qualified for the debate include: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and possibly/tentatively Ben Carson (depending on Carson’s polling).  No more than six candidates will be in that debate – and it could possibly be five.

wine-snob-manWith Jeb’s fourth place finish in New Hampshire, ahead of Rubio, he has reasserted himself as the GOPe primary frontrunner.

If Jeb can finish stronger than Rubio in South Carolina Jeb will have the momentum he needs to begin re-establishing his argument.  But that’s going to be a challenge.

To achieve his objectives, and to settle the nerves of the donor class, we can expect Jeb to attack Donald Trump in an effort to project his strength.   Jeb’s only real opportunity to do this is during the debate.

The victor of the Bush -v- Rubio contest will be determined by who can project themselves (to the donor class) as the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump.  Again, old money and old party teams preferring Bush, new money and modern GOPe types preferring Rubio.

The curious questioning on why Carly Fiorina continues in the race will probably intensify.  But Carly’s later endorsement is not really a question – it will be either Jeb or Rubio.

South Carolina is going to be a real bloodbath !   There’s an increasing sense of desperation – and to make matters worse, Bernie Sanders is looming large over Hillary Clinton.

Remember, meet at the old mill – we ride at sunrise. !!

trump lion

This entry was posted in Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, media bias, Ted Cruz, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

820 Responses to New Hampshire Consequences and The GOPe Road Map Moving Forward….

  1. gainny says:

    Can someone enlighten me as to what happened at the debate on Saturday?

    Rubio repeatedly said (paraphrase) that Obama is not incompetent but evil.

    No one responded to what he said, even to scoff. Instead, Christie jumped up and down on him: There you go again. No one responded to the substance of what he said, even to ask, Why do you say that? Or, that’s crazy talk.

    Subsequently, no one from our famous free press asked about it. Instead, we got the Rubio robot meme.

    I can guess why no one wanted to go there, but who put him up to it and coached him? Clearly, someone thought it was important, since Rubio said it so many times.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Jason says:

      Rubio’s been saying same line on and off for a bit now. Am almost certain you can go back to prior debate or few and hear him give that same line, almost word-for-word. Now that Obama has the green light on all of his agenda, seems like they don’t mind letting the cat out of the bag anymore.

      Rubio’s long been trying to play up that he’s above attacking his fellow Rs and instead takes swipes at Hillary and O. Now we find out there was probably an ulterior motive to attacking those who weren’t around to respond back to him.

      Liked by 1 person

      • gainny says:

        I disagree about their letting the cat out of the bag. If they concurred, they would face questions about why they gave Obama everything he wanted and never moved to impeach him. It would expose the whole Uniparty. (And Trump wouldn’t want to spook any prospective Obama voters suffering buyer’s remorse. He has hinted at it [paraphrase]: They’re incompetent . . . I hope it’s that and not something more sinister. But I don’t want to go there.)

        So, since everyone agrees that Rubio is following a script, who wrote it and why?

        Liked by 2 people

        • Jason says:

          think it was pretty obvious the media would overlook the statement regardless, wrote it to play up his ‘outsider’ status for the base. Of course if Trump made the same statement, he’d be ‘rigorously admonished’ by the same media.

          Like

    • CountryclassVulgarian says:

      I think Rubio made an important and true point. Robotic, yes. True nonetheless. I am glad Christte got his behind handed to him. He can now go for a walk on the beach with his man-buddy barack. Good riddance.

      Liked by 1 person

    • sahm2016 says:

      Is the problem that the press or the other candidates ignored the concept of “Obama’s fundamental transformation of America”? We know Obama doesn’t like America as it was founded. Dinesh D’Souza has been writing and making movies about this for years. Conservative talk radio has been hammering thw same thing since 2008. Rubio didn’t suddenly discover a concept nobody had ever discusses before.

      I think the other candidates ignored it because it is ineffective politically. This talking point doesn’t work because people like Obama and don’t want to even consider he is purposefully destroying America. Some people think he has done a bad job, but they still respect and admire him.

      I like George W. Bush, he’s most likely a globalist and has made decisions I didn’t agree with, but I like him. I remember him standing there with his bullhorn after 9-11 telling us that the people who knocked the buildings down would soon hear all of us. My feelings about Bush are purely emotional.

      The same thing can be said about Ted Cruz. Even after Iowa, people still think he has integrity. They still think he has wide spread appeal after NH. You can’t convince people of something they don’t want to believe.

      Why, other than as cover for Rubio’s debate performance, does it matter that anybody goes over this point again? If it resonated with voters, Obama would never had been elected to a second term. You can like Obama think Obamacare is a complete disaster. You can like Obama and think that he hasn’t fixed the economy. You can like Obama but disagree with how our Military and Vets are treated.

      What difference does it make now if it was intentional or due to incompetence? The damage has already been done.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Here is my take on this.

      I think that Rubio’s purpose is to draw people from Trump and Cruz. That line he was spouting, in terms of content, is theoretically resonant with voters for Trump and Cruz, who have actually figured out what’s happening to America. But Rubio has to be careful – he can’t actually “go there” on demonizing the Uniparty, because on day one of his administration, the Uniparty is safely back in power. So he says the most “anti-Uniparty” thing he can say – that Obama is destroying the country. The truth is that the Uniparty is destroying the country, but Obama is doing it now, so Marco goes with Obama as the bad guy.

      Sadly or gladly, this is NOT a working strategy. Trump and Cruz voters are SO beyond that message, it tells us nothing about a candidate. If you’re not telling us how you’re going to roll back the Obama crazy, in terms that would be suicidal for a second term in case you renege on the deal (which Bushes have been known to do), then there is no way we’re going to believe you. Marco is still Uniparty. He would basically have to say things that would damage his backers and media buddies. NO. CAN. DO. We would have to see Marco creating media meltdowns and dropped jaws on those leggy Foxettes to get even close to something that sways a Trump voter or a Cruzbot.

      Now – why did Christie fire on Rubio? And not just that, but use personally crafted ammo (meaning, go after Rubio’s stimulant-induced repetitive speech – a guaranteed but low blow). THIS is the brilliance of the Roadmap which Sundance has stolen from Team JEBRNC. Right now was the time to sink Rubio and raise Jeb. Rubio needs to be lower in the polls. Jeb needed to get a placing finish FAST. If Rubio had beaten Jeb, Jeb might have been declared non-viable by many in the pundit class. THAT would be unacceptable.

      I did not expect Christie to bail so soon. He is an extremely useful attack dog. My guess is that the shoot-down of Rubio was too good, and looked suspicious. It raises questions in the “semi-deceived” wing of the Uniparty – people like the RINOs at Fox, who back Rubio. They believe that Rubio would be allowed to win. They have not yet accepted the truth that they, too, are useful idiots.

      If Fox realized how badly the game is rigged, even against them, they would be supporting TRUMP.

      Ironic.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Catrick H says:

        I had an adderall habit for a while (praise the Lord I’m done with it) and can’t believe I missed this link with Rubio’s behavior. The water chugging, the megolomania, the repetition, racing speech, etc. So, so spot on! YHVH bless you, good sir. So much makes sense now! How many people would you imagine know this?

        Liked by 1 person

        • Many are probably now aware. Our fellow treeper John Galt noticed it during the debate or right after (check the debate and post-debate threads), and then about 5 of us started digging into the issue. Therefore, many readers here know, and I suspect that ALL campaigns know.

          My take is that Rubio’s “mea culpa / never again / tally ho” speech and Christy dropping out were largely the result of that confrontation. Everybody now knows that Rubio did a “speed cram” for the debate. Stupid – and never again. But several conclusions are known only to the players.

          Did the Uniparty set Rubio up, either by suggesting adderall, leaking the fact, or tipping Christie? I strongly believe so. This is a typical Uniparty hit, where they exploit a “sin” to prevent return fire. Beyond that, I sense that multiple stiffs have been advised badly by untrustworthy GOP consultants working for the roadmap, to make sure stiffs and splitters crash when Jeb needs them to crash. So this fits the pattern. And while Christie may have placed poorly enough to need to bail, I think he got caught as a player in a sleazy op, and Team Jeb said “take your dive now – your job is done.”

          I suspect Rubio AND his true believers like Fox and Murdoch now realize how nasty this election really is. Perhaps it’s time for him to say “hasta la vista” to the Uniparty. Doubt he’ll do it, but if he’s looking for honest players to tuck in with, Trump and Carson are all there is.

          Like

  2. SharonKinDC says:

    Fiorina is OUT!!! YAY!

    Liked by 7 people

  3. Trust No One says:

    Savage is on fire today about the communist revolution Bernie is trying to lead in the U.S.

    I really believe he’s the only one in radio that actually gets it.

    Liked by 2 people

    • p'odwats says:

      Yeah, he does. He said the reason a good many conservatives are gonna vote for Trump is that they’re putting pragmatism ahead of purity. So true. The “purist” Cruzaders are fooling themselves that Cruz can win. I know he has no way of winning if nominated. Better to get something with Trump than nothing with Cruz, who will go down in flames in November.

      Liked by 2 people

  4. carolmcd says:

    Our Principles Super PAC making big commitment to take Trump out in South Carolina. They are claiming credit for Trump 2nd place in Iowa. They use Trump’s own words against him. They show him talking about abortion , etc. from his more liberal days.

    This is the Super PAC run by former Romney Deputy Campaign manager Katie Packer. She’s vicious. And Rimney campaign was expert in taking people out with negative ads.

    Like

    • Beenthere says:

      “And Rimney campaign was expert in taking people out with negative ads.”

      The same group that took out Obama in 2012? —Those GOPe putzes. Not you, them.

      I don’t think Trump has to worry.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. carolmcd says:

    Our Principles Super PAC, which is being run by former Romney Deputy Campaign Manager, Katie Packer, appears to be affiliated with Marco Rubio Super PAC Conservative Solutions. Both are affiliated with Robert and Nancy Watkins of Florida. The Watkins’ were Pioneers to George W. Bush 2004 campaign, and are treasurers to Rubio PAC Conservative Solutions.

    Packer claims that Our Principles PAC is not affiliated with any particular campaign, though she personally supports Rubio. But, the FEC filings for Our Principles and Conservative Solutions appear to come from the Florida Watkins couple. I can’t identify the donors.

    In my opinion, these people did effective ads against Trump in Iowa. If I were the Trump campaign, I would be prepared to counter them.

    Like

    • Bert Darrell says:

      I wonder if others believe, like I do, that the Iowa caucus voting system is a very old, largely corrupt method exploited by party hacks to control the results? Once the “results” are reported, any campaign can claim that their shenanigans were (or were not) effective. Wasn’t a precinct captain’s personal decision whether to announce the false suspension of Ben Carson’s campaign? Please, educate me if I’m wrong.

      Like

  6. Gail Combs says:

    The CRUZBOTS have a new attack. I have now been banned across the board by disqus

    I got several up votes and thanks for the information but those comments now have DELETED Detected as spam on the CRUZ comments going all the way back for a month. This just happened BTW

    Like

  7. carolmcd says:

    Trump has made a number of controversial statements during this campaign and has voiced opinions in the past that he no longer holds, and that could sound damaging if used in ads. I don’t care about any of that. I don’t care about Vera Coking – none of it. It can all be explained.

    The one thing that I think Trump should apologize for is his comment about John McCain not being a war hero. It bothered me a lot at the time he said it, and it still doesn’t make sense to me. Believe me, I am no admirer of John McCain, and I think the term “hero” is overused. Not everyone who joins the military is a hero.

    But what happened to John McCain was horrific. His getting shot down doesn’t make him a war hero. However, his endurance through tremendous physical pain from his injuries and torture, and his refusal to accept early release, make him worthy of admiration and gratitude.

    A lot of Vietnam vets were not considered heroic. Many were not treated well by their countrymen when they returned. I strongly opposed the Vietnam War at the time. I couldn’t understand the mentality of anyone who volunteered to go. But, as the years passed, I came to appreciate the sacrifice of those who went to Vietnam, especially the ones who were drafted.

    In my view, Trump should take back what he said that day to Frank Luntz.

    Like

    • BobW462 says:

      Frankly, I haven’t noticed that the McCain comment has had any discernible impact whatsoever on Trump’s campaign.

      Liked by 3 people

    • You obviously don’t know the story about how McCain has done everything he could to block rescuing POWs from Vietnam. He has blocked every initiative to retrieve men left behind. It is truly disgusting.

      He is a scumbag.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Bert Darrell says:

      Oh, but it makes a lot of sense to me. McCain was called the “songbird” by his Hanoi immates for a good reason. In the military, he destroyed 3 airplanes, and later on was captured because he did not follow orders (flying at the wrong altitude). Just being stupid does not justify allowing himself to get in trouble and then rat on his country. I don’t think he’s a hero. He exploited his war situation enough and should now consider quitting before he’s kicked out by the voters. It’s you opinion and you are entitled to it. I’ll stick to mine. Moreover, a “hero” does not put pressure on government officials to get a banking crook out of trouble (Goggle McCain and the Keating five).

      Liked by 3 people

    • shallbe4 says:

      Carol I think Trump has apologized for that everytime he speaks about veterans and wounded warriors. He was asked why he supports vets and said that although he had a bad foot and was in college during Nam he could have gone. He has felt guilty ever since that he has had a wonderful life and for so many of the vets life has been anything but….he said he owes them for their service.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. WARNING: Do NOT count out cheating from Ted Cruz. He didn’t call himself the “dark horse” for nothing. His team has mixed religion with dark politics which is a lethal mix.

    The Bush team is just as rotten but of a much more powerful strain, they welcome the help from the unsuspecting Cruz team who believes that Cruz can win. But Cruz cannot win, he’ll be used to try to hamper Donald Trump and when they’re done with Cruz they will get rid of him. Cruz, blinded by vanity and lacking in ‘awareness’ does not know there lies an enemy (or two or more) among his own camp working for Bush. So these camps are separate, but both have the same goal in mind: to knock out Donald Trump. Of course the Bush team also has the goal to knock out Ted Cruz, but Cruz’ vanity keeps him too blind to see it.

    Prayer warriors keep praying and do not stop, wickedness is not going to relinquish its power easily. The prayers of a righteous man availeth much! And their wicked plans can be thwarted and prevented through prayer. The effectual fervent prayer of a righteous man availeth much. [James 5:16].

    Liked by 3 people

    • shallbe4 says:

      Monique its really scary dark politics and an Elmer Gantry Zeal. And of course he will do this again — nobody stopped him the first time. Rush said that Cruz is the most honest man and the most authentic conservative. The Establishment needs Cruz’s dirty tricks.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s