The latest CNN/WMUR Poll (full pdf below) of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump holding a consistent lead and Marco Rubio clearing the GOPe lanes as predicted. Ted Cruz comes in third at 13%, but close with John Kasich (12%) and Jeb Bush (10%).
Chris Christie dropping to 4% is a surprise. This current poll has Christie doing much worse than all previous polling in the Granite state. However, Christie’s sixth place tie with Carly Fiorina does put Carly back on the ABC debate stage so there could be a “Time-Warner/Disney” motive/smoothing factor at work.
It will be interesting to see if the scourge of Heroin addition is really as central to the New Hampshire voter as the media have previously proclaimed.
If so, a generally intelligent assertion would think that closing the Mexican border, the source of the drug influx, would be a key component to the voting decision. However, Senator Rubio, who is the biggest advocate for open borders, is showing strong – which is counter intuitive to the drug concern claim.
If you think carefully about which narrative would most likely benefit the GOPe narrative moving forward, and you consider the New Hampshire professional republican party has already stated their vitriolic hatred for Donald Trump, the most likely scenario will be a Marco Rubio victory (Trump 2nd) which is useful to sell the Trump is a loser meme.
We’ll be going into that in detail for the debate predictions; which, at this point, are brutally transparent.
(CNN) Donald Trump continues to hold a wide lead among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a new CNN/WMUR tracking poll, with the pack vying for second place is beginning to break up.
Behind Trump’s field-leading 29% support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio climbs to second place with 18% following his strong third place finish in Iowa, followed by Ted Cruz (13%) and John Kasich (12%) in a near-tie for third. Jeb Bush holds fifth place at 10%, a hair behind Cruz and Kasich, with Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina well behind at 4% each. The fight for second place between Cruz, Rubio and Kasich remains within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
The poll was conducted entirely after the Iowa caucuses.
Cruz has held steady compared with his pre-Iowa standing, while Kasich and Bush have each bumped up their share of the vote slightly, though within the margin of sampling error. Christie has lost some ground, dipping 4 points since a CNN/WMUR poll conducted before the Iowa caucuses.
The results reflect interviews conducted during the first two and a half days of a tracking poll that will ultimately wrap together three nights worth of interviews. (read more)