Candidate Donald Trump takes a commanding lead (34%) in the latest Fox News Iowa poll (full pdf below). Ted Cruz comes in second at 23% and Marco Rubio 12%. No other candidate comes close.
However, additionally worth noting is the under representation of several electorate flags (ex. cell phone users) which would add confidence the impression that even with these results, the size of Donald Trump’s support is understated.
This baseline polling probability is enhanced when you review the Margin-of-Error for the sub-groups. Obviously, all of this is exceptional news for Donald Trump with a week left before Iowa caucuses… We have previously outlined how the Fox Polls were constructed for a specific outcome in December and January. The severity of their manufacturing was noted in their previous MOE, 10% margins of error on “gender”, which is ridiculous. – SEE HERE
This latest poll adds further confirmation the previous methods used by Fox were created for a specific narrative, and NOT to genuinely capture the overall sense of the electorate.
With actual voting a week away, they have to start reporting accurate data lest they be noted as insufferably wrong come caucus day in Iowa, Feb 1st.
Here’s a comparative trend of the latest Fox polls of Iowa:
(Via Fox) […] Trump bests Ted Cruz in Iowa and now receives 34 percent support among Republican caucus-goers. Trump was at 23 percent in the Fox News Poll two weeks ago (January 4-7).
Cruz is second with 23 percent — down a touch from 27 percent. Marco Rubio comes in third with 12 percent, down from 15 percent. No others garner double-digit support.
Among caucus-goers who identify as “very” conservative, Cruz was up by 18 points over Trump earlier this month. Now they each receive about a third among this group (Cruz 34 percent vs. Trump 33 percent).
There’s been a similar shift among white evangelical Christians. Cruz’s 14-point advantage is now down to a 2-point edge.
A lot has happened in the intervening two weeks. Fox Business Network hosted a Republican debate where Trump questioned Cruz’s eligibility to be president, and Cruz attacked Trump’s liberal “New York values.” On Tuesday, Gov. Terry Branstad urged his fellow Iowans to vote against Cruz because of his opposition to ethanol — and former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Trump.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw says, “We tend to over-interpret every little thing in a presidential race, but here we actually have solid evidence Trump didn’t just win last week in Iowa — he won it by enough to put some distance between himself and Cruz.” Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. (read more)