New Hampshire Poll: Donald Trump on Top, Rubio Second, Ted Cruz Drops To Sixth….

The latest PPP poll (full pdf below) from New Hampshire reflects a considerable shakeup behind Trump.  Candidate Donald Trump remains at the top holding a significant lead more than double the next competitor, Rubio.

The various wings inside the Deathstar GOPe are now left with factional fighting among themselves – Trump has split the splitters. Rubio attacks Bush who attacks Christie who attacks Kasich who attacks Rubio who attacks Kasich who attacks Christie who attacks Bush etc…

However, with that: Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Jeb Bush have now surpassed a falling Ted Cruz (dropped 3 points from prior PPP poll), and Ben Carson is down in the Fiorina bracket of irrelevance:

(Via PPP Polling) […]  The candidates with the biggest gains since our last poll in early December are Bush (up 5 points from 5% to 10%), Rubio (up 4 points from 11% to 15), and Kasich (up 3 points from 8% to 11%). Bush and Kasich have also had notable gains in their favorability ratings.

Bush has gone from negative territory last month (38/45) to positive ground (44/42). It may not sound like much but it’s been a long time since we found Bush with an above water favorability anywhere. Kasich’s improved from 38/35 to 46/30.

The bottom’s dropped out on Ben Carson whose support has gone from 9% to 4% and whose favorability has gone from 52/30 to 48/34. Interestingly the other candidate whose seen his support drop is Ted Cruz, who’s gone from 13% to 10% with his favorability remaining steady at 54/29 this month to 53/28 last month.

Cruz is still pretty well positioned overall though. He’s the most frequent second choice of voters in the state at 17% to 11% each for Bush and Rubio, and 10% for Christie. More importantly he’s the overwhelming back up pick of Trump supporters at 37% to 10% for Rubio with no one else in double digits. If Cruz wins Iowa and it causes Trump voters to be demoralized, he’s easily the candidate most likely to see his supporters come their way.  (read more)

Trump rally mississippi

trump rally mississippi 2

This entry was posted in Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

103 Responses to New Hampshire Poll: Donald Trump on Top, Rubio Second, Ted Cruz Drops To Sixth….

  1. Martin says:

    “If Cruz wins Iowa and it causes Trump voters to be demoralized, he’s easily the candidate most likely to see his supporters come their way.”

    This is just wishful thinking on PPP’s part.

    Liked by 14 people

    • BobW462 says:

      Sure, but they need to keep the myth alive until they can’t any longer.

      Liked by 4 people

    • Raffaella says:

      This comment from PPP is typical democrat wishful thinking. Trump supporters will turn up the heat and will roar in New Hampshire and every other state if by some chance Cruz wins in Iowa. We are NOT going to reward Cruz for beating our guy.

      Liked by 8 people

      • 1American1st says:

        Did you see the Iowa polls the Liberal Media & even Fox were quoting? WHAT A JOKE!

        It was like 400 in one poll & 1,000 in another poll.

        Trump has more supporters in just the first row of any of his rallies.

        Iowa polls are hogwash.

        TRUMP 2016

        Liked by 9 people

    • Bull Durham says:

      If Cruz wins Iowa and . . .

      If a frog had wings, it wouldn’t bump its ass on the ground.

      Demoralized Trump voters? I doubt Iowa is wider than 3 pts. now. By Feb. 1 it will be a toss up. Why be demoralized? A near-tie is like a win. And from there, Cruz will be facing death by thousand cuts as Trumps runs the table.

      Liked by 9 people

    • TheFenian says:

      “If Cruz wins Iowa and it causes Trump voters to be demoralized, he’s easily the candidate most likely to see his supporters come their way.”

      If blue were green and green was yellow the grass and the sky would look completely different.

      The press twists and turns hypotheticals always with the result that shows how Trump loses and his supporters crawl back into their shacks in the woods.
      How about this;
      “If Cruz wins Iowa by less than 10 points, he will not have the momentum to stop the Trump juggernaut”
      Or
      “With Cruz matching Trump’s polling numbers only in the irrelevant state of Iowa, it’s safe to project the GOP nominee is Donald J. Trump”
      Or
      “Trump is unstoppable and no serious analyst would say otherwise”

      Liked by 7 people

    • amjean says:

      I suspect Trump supporters will be demoralized
      for ten seconds max, wonder about the mindset
      of the Iowa voters, then wonder what shenanigans
      went on behind closed doors.

      Then it will be “Onward Christian soldiers, marching
      off to war!”

      Liked by 3 people

      • So true, we see a lot of pictures of the massive Trump rallies. How many people show up to see Cruz or Rubio speak. How about some pictures showing their massive supporters giving Cruz his “back up pick” status. I’ve seen Trump.s supporters, they sure look like they are on the edge of their seats, ready to bolt any time.

        Like

    • Bluto says:

      Trump supporters are so susceptible to being demoralized. Heck, they hardly have enough energy to show up to Trump’s rallies. Trump voters don’t have the patience or excitement to wait in line, especially if it’s cold or raining. Those fickle Trump voters, they’re just the worst! They’ll be demoralized at the drop of a hat.

      /PPP prognosticating punditry p00p-head mode

      Liked by 10 people

      • Was thinking that yesterday when some media guy said most of the people in the NH rally were Dems and wouldn’t vote for Trump. Yeah, right. They are going to stand outside in freezing cold for hours, then get inside and stand for another couple hours. Nahh those folks are unmotivated and just came to watch. \sarc

        Liked by 7 people

        • Bluto says:

          I have a theory that we have a percentage of the American public that has become so accustomed to being fed bullsh’t, they haven’t a clue what comprises reality or truth.

          Of course, my buddy George was much more eloquent that I.

          George Orwell — ‘The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.’

          Liked by 6 people

    • tempo150101 says:

      The significance of this poll for all the Cruzbots is that it goes a long way toward proving that Cruz as a candidate has very limited appeal. I don’t mind Cruz myself, but if he’s the nominee, Cankles wins and Huma becomes our First Lady.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Definitely most people are sick of insiders like Cruz. People can claim he’s an outsider all they like but he sure got plenty of insider money. People would prefer to write Trump in rather than vote for Cruz. In addition the crossover Dems will never vote for Cruz.

      Liked by 3 people

  2. 240grjhp says:

    Test post..not been able to post on CTH the last few days for some reason. Trump 2017 – 2025!!

    Like

  3. mrscribbler says:

    Heb! is surging! And so is the Fat boy. Frankly, I’m suspicious, and wonder how much of the “results” are just pot-stirring.

    Trump always seems to come out with, at worst, a 2:1 lead. Usually 3:1. That part, I believe.

    Liked by 4 people

    • TheFenian says:

      News Item 1 • Bush has moved up, Kasich has moved up.
      News Item 2 • It’s well known that people all over New Hampsire are wacked out on heroin. In fact it’s an epidemic.
      Why do I feel there must be a correlation between these two stories ?

      Liked by 4 people

      • Yeoman says:

        Bush did just move a bunch of cash from TV advertising to IA and NH ground efforts. Maybe he is the new best friend of some “new voters”.

        Like

  4. runthetable says:

    I get the feeling Cruz is dropping in IA too.

    Liked by 9 people

  5. TAS says:

    If I remember correctly…for the splitters to work, they needed 10% – 15% to be effective. As much as I hate to say it, that’s what I see here. Rove and his crooks have not given up yet. If the numbers are to be believed.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Here’s the ironic thing about Iowa, it only really matters if Trump wins it. If someone else wins the state, I can say, they will neither be the nominee, nor president.

    Only Trump winning Iowa, makes him the nominee.

    And this is all thanks to the extra special importance the Establishment has placed on it this go around in its effort to get rid of Donald Trump.

    Liked by 6 people

  7. sunspots7 says:

    My vote priority:
    #1 – TRUMP
    #2 – my dead goldfish
    #3 – my cat’s hairball
    4# – Ted Cruz

    Liked by 14 people

  8. Imagine the money lost if the World Series or Stanley Cup was won in only 4 games instead of the full 7 game series. Now imagine the money lost if the nomination was determined early and everyone gave up and went home in, say, March. All those missed debates, commercials, news shows, commercials, and more commercials. It is in the best interests of the MSM to promote fighting and create ‘talking points.’ Someone goes from 3 to 4 so the headlines say “CandidateX is surging” so you look to see what is going on and take in a few commercials. They have to keep the trash talking going to keep the money flowing in!

    Liked by 4 people

  9. drdeb says:

    I predict that after Cruz slides off, the next Trump topic will educate the public that anchor babies are not children of Natural-Born citizens and thus are not constitutionally eligible to hold the office of President or VP.
    That will bring about a Rubio sweat and his fall in the polls.
    Next, the RNC will combine their forces for the election of another presidential anti-Trump candidate.
    It “ain’t gonna work!”
    Trump will win Iowa and it will be uphill from there.
    This is a YUGE YUGE Movement by WTP!

    Liked by 7 people

    • vincentjappi says:

      In the US, you DON’T have to be the child of a natural-born citizen in order to be eligible.
      That condition, apparently, has only existed in the Constitution of the Ivory Coast.
      In the US, all you need is to have citizen parents, in addition to being born in the country.

      Liked by 1 person

      • KBR says:

        Wrong.

        Like

        • PatriotKate says:

          Vincent is correct. Rubio is not eligible now, because at the time of his birth, his parents were only Green Card residents. They did not become Naturalized Citizens until after Rubio’s birth. Had they become citizens before his birth, Rubio would have been eligible. It all depends on the circumstances at the time of their birth.

          Liked by 1 person

  10. G. D. says:

    I don’t know… if Chris, Kasich, Carly, and Bush all drop out of the race and maybe endorse Rubio, he’ll win like 51% and Trump might get 30% of the republican vote. Let’s just hope it doesn’t happen.

    Like

    • 1984 says:

      I doubt it, but your concern is noted. What makes you think waterboy will take all of their supporters? Cruz would still be in and undoubtedly take some but chances are they gope voters would just be demoralized and stay home. Also, Trump is just starting to run TV ads after being ahead for 6 months. What makes you think, if he even gets a hint that he’s dropping that he won’t unload on waterboy with negative ads. He said he’s willing to spend a billion of his own money to be sure, so spending a few mil to take out Rubio if he becomes a threat is nothing for our billionaire candidate

      Liked by 3 people

    • nhtrespasser says:

      I am not sure that all those votes will go to Rubio. My feeling that some of Christie (straight talk) and some of Fiorina (business outsider) votes will go to Trump. However, I agree the spread doesn’t look good for Trump.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Raffaella says:

        You are all assuming incorrectly that Trump support is only at 30% and that the polls are correct. These polls are all fake. They underestimate Trump’s support by 20%. They only base their polls on historical assumptions (turn out, population mix, etc) and are not counting on new voters, cross over democrat/independent voters and huge turn outs.

        Mark my word – Trump is close to or over 50% support.

        Liked by 4 people

    • JoeS says:

      Chris, K, Snarly, and Bush are only getting some OK numbers in NH. They will not drop out before NH. Trump is getting 38 to 42 nationally now. He probably is REALLY polling at above 50% based on some form of the “Bradley effect” AND the weighing of current polling using too traditional republican turnout, race, age, etc demos (this is not accurate in rating Trump).

      I also DO NOT THINK that the above you mentioned falling out of the race means they automatically go to Rubio-NO WAY! they will be split and Trump will get a significant share of them. He would probably be in the 55-65% landslide range at that point!

      Liked by 2 people

    • 1American1st says:

      Who in the Hell in their right mind would vote for Rubio?????

      When he joined “The Gang of 8”, I was done with him! We need a President who supports American Citizens for a change, not millions of ILLEGAL Aliens or Muslim refugees.

      Is he even eligible? His Cuban parents didn’t become American Citizens until he was 4 years old.

      http://www.wnd.com/2011/05/297485/

      Liked by 2 people

    • singtune says:

      Rubio is Constitutionally Ineligible just like Cruz~! That is now being challenged in Vermont as of 12/29/2015~~!

      Liked by 2 people

  11. vincentjappi says:

    Rubio, too, in ineligible, given that his parents were foreigners at the date of his birth.

    Liked by 2 people

  12. Crassus says:

    If this poll has been posted at Right Scoop you can bet that they’re going batcrap crazy over there. Might even have a few suicide attempts.;)

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Pops says:

    Bush?! Is it still running?

    Liked by 1 person

  14. james23 says:

    The talking heads are saying / wishing that if Trump loses in IA, his support will collapse.

    I think the opposite is true: if the anti-Trump doesn’t win and win big in IA, the anti-Trump opposition will totally collapse, and the Rout will be ON!

    Liked by 2 people

  15. El_Flaco says:

    The establishment vote exceeds the anti establishment vote in this poll. The splitter strategy still has legs.

    Like

  16. Trumpfan80 says:

    Stop worrying about Iowa guys… Remember we have Chuck Laudner as state director for Trump’s campaign. This man literally drove Rick Santorum around the entire state in 2012 and helped him win. Chuck has lived in Iowa his entire life. He’s got the database and he’s working for a natural winning candidate and media manipulator in Trump. We’ve got this.. we all just gotta believe. I’ve been saying on this site for weeks if we win Iowa we win the whole thing… 25 days…

    Liked by 10 people

    • Rene says:

      I agree. Trump is going to “wrap this up” in 25 days.

      Liked by 1 person

    • JoeS says:

      And Sam Clovis too!

      If I was Donald Trump, right before the election, actually maybe starting now, I would range arrange 5-6 regional meetings where he invites all of his precinct captains (like 1600 plus of them) to attend caucus training. Trump should then appear at these meetings and give them a personal intro as well as gifts and a dinner.

      There would be 200-300 people per meeting, and that would be a great venue to “get” to go to. It would really fire them up!

      Liked by 1 person

      • MATTHEW says:

        “If I was Donald Trump, right before the election, actually maybe starting now, I”

        This would require spending money and making an effort…. 2 things Donald doesn’t want to do.

        Like

        • Martin says:

          Really………

          Liked by 3 people

        • KBR says:

          You have access to Donald Trump’s accounts? I think not.
          Two million per week is no small amount of money for ads.
          As for effort? No other candidate has been working and rallying like Trump.
          Not one has the stamina nor the strength. Not one.

          Liked by 2 people

        • Bluto says:

          Yeah, Trump not making an effort is going to doom his campaign. He’s so lazy.

          /bong-load troll supreme mode

          Liked by 6 people

        • JoeS says:

          Why would he spend money up till now when he gets free stuff? Second point: no one is working even as close to as hard as Trump. The news shows are Trump 24/7 on the phone and in person. He holds a rally with between 3K to 15K several times a week, and he tweets endlessly to his approaching 6 million followers.

          He does not use a teleprompter when he speaks meaning he commits his speech point to memory!!!!!!!!!

          That is just getting started. He oversees a giant corporation, reads, and leads a campaign organization in 50 states. He is COMPLETELY current on issues in the news both of a political bent and not. Compare one other candidate to his effort.

          He is NOT LOW ENERGY!

          Liked by 3 people

        • Rudy Bowen says:

          He does more rallies than all the others combined, and he doesn’t want to make an effort. He’s spending his own money as needed and not begging, so that means he doesn’t want to spend money (mine)…OK, got it.

          Like

  17. flyanddive says:

    The fact that the other candidates are still in the race is proof that the GOPe hasn’t yet given up on Jeb. Classic republican party here, when it’s your turn, it’s your turn.

    Liked by 3 people

  18. Steve Wilks says:

    These improving poll numbers/percentages for Bush, Kasich, etc. are necessary for their next TV debate status…? Or is that no longer a criteria for selecting who gets a podium? Last time, Trump predicted that Bush was going to soon fall off the stage. That would be a watershed event that Fox wouldn’t want when the debate will be on their network.

    Also, didn’t Rand Paul state that he (Paul) wouldn’t participate in any second tier debate? I don’t mind Rand Paul. But that Ohio governor…!! He’s annoying.

    I’m for Trump. I’m in Orlando. I vote. I really appreciate the information that’s shared on this forum. Thanks.

    Liked by 6 people

  19. Trumpfan80 says:

    Huckabee and Carson drop out after Iowa. Fiorina and Kasich will drop out after NH. It will be down to Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, and Christie. Santorum and Bush will hang on forever because they are masochists.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:

    I like Trump on top but I don’t like the GOPe candidates moving up that could be a bad sign.

    Like

  21. sevenwheel says:

    Is it just me or what the heck is the purpose of question 31?

    Like

  22. Bill Bower says:

    You had me @deathstar GOPe

    Like

  23. trapper says:

    “Deathstar’? Did you day “Deathstar”?
    From the movie: “There has ben an awakening. Can you feel it?”
    Yes. We can. We have. We ARE.

    I bless the Lord who gives me counsel;
    in the night also my heart instructs me.
    I have set the Lord always before me;
    because he is at my right hand, I shall not be shaken.
    Psalm 16

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Doodahdaze says:

    The stiffs are formed up. Ready… Aim…

    Like

  25. wodiej says:

    I hope Iowa voters will give Trump the state. If not…yawn.

    Liked by 1 person

  26. NJF says:

    Did anyone else watch Lou dobbs tonight? At one point he had on Ed Rawlings and I could have sworn he said “I believe the numbers in Iowa indicate that Cruz will win it, with Rubio 2nd & trump 3rd.”

    Not sure if I heard him correctly. I’m going to see if it’s up at fox…..

    Like

    • NJF says:

      Dang Lou’s site is pretty lame. No vid. Oh well. I call BS if that’s what he said.

      Oh and over at Bretbart the cruzbots are going off the rails!

      Like

    • SharonKinDC says:

      Here’s the transcript summary from BOR today w/ Rollins:

      The GOP vs. Trump
      The Factor welcomed veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins, who analyzed the disdain many traditional Republicans feel for Donald Trump. “The establishment feels like he is not one of them,” Rollins declared, “and that he has not been a Republican. They don’t have any control over him, they don’t know what kind of president he would be, and they want someone who is part of their society. I worry that some of the things Trump says will drive some voters away, but in this election cycle it is absurd to say he doesn’t have a chance. I would argue that Donald Trump will have a harder time winning the Republican nomination than the general election against Hillary Clinton.”

      Can’t help RE Dobbs.

      I find the lack of IA polling telling…and wonder how many polls have been embargoed or put in the shredder.

      Like

  27. Pinkie says:

    It is gradually dawning on the establishment that this no lark for Trump. In one sense Trump’s use of free and social media is rewriting the playbook. He’s utterly fearless and willing to swing from the trapeze with no safety net.

    But it’s not all media. In another sense he harks back to an earlier era – the rallies, interviews, appearances and other events – remind me a little of the famous “give ‘em hell Harry” whistle stop campaign (famous line “I just tell the truth and they think its hell). City after city, the energy level and work ethic are impressive. And the guy has impressive retail political skills.

    There are also parallels with Reagan. Many feared a Reagan presidency just as some now fear a Trump presidency, particularly the elites. But I think that both had and have been public figures for so long that average people feel that they knew Reagan and know Trump.

    So, just as people were willing to forgive Reagan’s lack of encyclopedic grasp of detail they forgive Trump some of his bombast and outrageous statements. And just as those outrageous statements seem to become less outrageous as time passes, I predict so too will the notion of a Trump presidency.

    But then the fun begins. Trump is a populist and much less ideological than the “drown the government in a bathtub” radicals that call themselves conservative today. After all he’s for social security and against free trade. And as an NYC developer he’s probably willing to work with labor unions.

    But who knows? Trump has shown an impressive ability to shed or walk back prior statements and positions when it’s convenient. Businessmen are nothing if not pragmatic. So fasten your seatbelts!

    Liked by 1 person

  28. ctdar says:

    One thing I pray for is that in the 2016 election, the men and women serving our country overseas will have their votes count for the first time in my lifetime.
    Donald Trump could make that dream a reality.

    Liked by 3 people

    • mariner says:

      No, actually Trump can’t do a thing about that.

      Even if he’s elected this year, he can do little about states that won’t send and process timely ballots for military members in later elections.

      Like

      • ctdar says:

        He could do what he does best and open his mouth to make reference about the process to bring attention to the fact that seemingly every election the delivery of military ballots have plane issues or they are lost.

        Liked by 1 person

  29. LawrencePaul says:

    There is and always was only one winner in this election. All of the others are fighting over scraps.
    Clinton will fold just as she has on the “sexist” card when it’s her turn to face Trump.
    Trump is just so far ahead of the political class that it is almost an unfair competition, if indeed it can be even considered a competition at all.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. wasntme says:

    I think Saturday Night Live must have done this poll.
    christie – 11%
    rubio – 15%
    kasich – 11%
    bush – 10%

    Yeah right. In their wet dreams. I’m surprised perry and jindal didn’t have 10% too. And they must really hate rand not to bump him up a little.

    Liked by 1 person

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