Rut Roh – The Political Peeps Are Finding Out About Trumps Secret Data Smarts….

Remember:

“This is an insurgency, folks”.  Always has been !

The legacy media, GOPe apparatus, punditry and professional political class continue to spin a negative narrative about: “Trump’s Ground Game”, “Trump’s Get-Out-The-Vote” apparatus, and a presumed weakness in Trump’s political “infrastructure needed to mobilize voters”.

However, all of those expressed opinions are driven by their collective naivete’ in understanding how Donald Trump constructs his business enterprises and personal endeavors.  Politically, Donald Trump is off the grid – and as such almost all of his political endeavors are well under the traditional radar.

Trump rally mississippi

When your message is: “the system is broken”, you simply don’t use the system…

… the professionally political just don’t know how to relate to a politician who can generate his own political apparatus.  But someone just leaked intel to Politico about “Trump’s Data Juggernaut” !

Notice no-one from the Trump campaign will talk about it.  None of them are authorized to talk about it.   Trump Inc is a private business, not publicly traded – a strong advantage in the business world allowing a business owner to maneuver faster than his/her competition.

Presidential Candidate Donald Trump has taken that same strategic advantage into the political world, and has constructed his own apparatus – allowing a similar nimble benefit.

(Via Politico)  Donald Trump’s rivals cling to the hope that the surprise GOP presidential frontrunner lacks the know-how to lure supporters to the polls, but POLITICO has learned that his campaign several months ago assembled an experienced data team to build sophisticated models to transform fervor into votes.

The team is led by two low-profile former Republican National Committee data strategists, Matt Braynard and Witold Chrabaszcz, and includes assistance from the political data outfit L2, according to multiple sources familiar with the effort. The data push is focused on integrating information Trump has collected through his campaign website and at voter rallies on non-traditional or unregistered supporters. It also includes commercial data obtained from the RNC and other sources, in an effort to mobilize voters in key early states, the sources said.

Trump’s campaign, which seems to revel in stories suggesting that its candidate suffers from a lack of organization, declined to comment, as did Braynard and Chrabaszcz. And, while the extent of the campaign’s data program remains unclear, it’s likely to be less robust than those built by the more traditional campaigns of his rivals, including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, who have each spent millions of dollars on data.  (read more)

trump landslide 2

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273 Responses to Rut Roh – The Political Peeps Are Finding Out About Trumps Secret Data Smarts….

  1. NHVoter says:

    I can attest that Trump has a solid GOTV game. That’s all I’m allowed to say🙂

    Liked by 42 people

    • Linden says:

      Made my day. Here in S. FL, we have some of the best and most enthusiastic, battle-tested people running the volunteer effort. I am encouraged. Haven’t been this happy since Allen West got elected.

      Liked by 24 people

    • sandraopines says:

      I can attest to that as well. Ditto! 😀

      Liked by 9 people

    • margarite1 says:

      I went to his site, at least I think I was at his site, and clicked on states and there was nothing for the entire west coast. I also clicked on “get involved” and it wouldn’t work. Do you know if he’s got something going in Oregon or Washington? I realize we tend to be less important but was surprised to be totally missing from the list.

      Like

      • MfM says:

        Sign up for his emails and as soon as something is set up they will email you. I’ve gotten a couple now to volunteer… I can’t right now, but will later.

        Like

    • TheFenian says:

      Just like Trump is operating outside the conventional political system, so are his supporters.
      We don’t need a political campaign team to get this done.
      WE ARE THE GROUND GAME OURSELVES.

      That’s how an insurgency works.

      I know each one of us is going to turn our 1 vote into 2 or 4 or 10 by personally getting our family, friends and neighbors to the polls on voting day. That’s how WE turn 1million votes into 2m or 4m or 10m ! That’s how WE turn 10m votes into 20m or 40m or 100 MILLION !

      G’damn this is exciting. These dumb f****ers have no idea how determined we are.

      Liked by 5 people

    • chili palmer says:

      UK Guardian reported from New Hampshire in Oct. 2015 that Trump was re-writing the political grassroots playbook, gathering new information, and growing the electorate. 10/8/15, “‘The goal is to be the winner’: Donald Trump’s campaign is for real,” UK Guardian, Ben Jacobs in Keene, NH

      Liked by 3 people

    • 9j1d8 says:

      I just got an email from President Trump’s Oklahoma Campaign team. I replied, asking them what took so long to ask what I was doing to help with the campaign. I have already had multiple friends accept my invitation to sign up and volunteer for the campaign through his website. All of my friends and family are voting for TRUMP! Send me pamphlets, yard signs, whatever you can give me to help. Word of mouth works! I’m telling everybody, VOTE TRUMP!

      Liked by 1 person

      • Rene says:

        If you can afford to buy the campaign materials, you can order them from his website. Eventually each state may have campaign headquarters set up, a few months from now after he has won the nomination. I think they are concentrating on early states first. The signs cost $ to produce and mail. I am ordering a yard sign. We already bought a hat. It came in two days.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Christopher Johnson says:

      Something occurred to me today while watching the Fox talking heads discussing Iowa and New Hampshire and the news of a solid coordinated gotv game cements it in my mind.

      The early states have proportional delegates as part of the uniparty’s plan to slow any early momentum and the pundits spend a bunch of time talking about how what’s just as critical as winning is who’s number two (or three) with momentum. But they also mentioned a threshold… a candidate has to get at least 10% of the vote to get any of the proportional delegates.

      Their thinking is that at least two candidates other than Trump will break that threshold and start to build up a delegate count and the media will spin that they have the momentum and not Trump.

      But what happens if Trump swamps the caucuses and polls to the point that no other candidate can get to 10% of the vote? As I understand it, if that were to happen Trump could take 100% of the delegates in a state with proportional delegates.

      Such a result would almost certainly be a knockout punch to Cruz’s campaign and would throw the media narrative into chaos. Winning zero delegates can’t be spun as having momentum while Trump turning a proportional delegate race into a winner takes all presents an image of inevitable victory.

      I don’t know if such a feat would actually be possible, but if anyone can figure out how to do it I’d place my money on Donald Trump.

      Like

    • tempo150101 says:

      You don’t have to say anything. It is inconceivable that someone can build and run a business employing thousands of employees without knowing that you have to have the basic nuts and bolts of operating a business in place. Only a truly ignorant person would think that Trump only thinks he has to speak in front of a microphone and that’s all there is to it!

      Not for one minute did I believe the stories that he wasn’t doing the necessary grunt work for getting elected.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Boudica says:

      Oh you’re BAD:)

      Like

    • Jake Speed says:

      I’m glad to hear it but PLEASE, if they have ANY plans similar to Romney’s failed “Project ORCA” GOTV program….warn them away from it. We cannot take a chance on a purely electronic GOTV program on election day. Too succeptable to crashing and sabotage.

      Like

  2. Trent Telenko says:

    Sundance,

    I have been posting here for a while that Trump was deep into “Big data.”.

    What Politico does not understead, and the Trump people won’t tell, is that these folks are “the beard” for the existing Trump corporate “Big Data” empire.

    Trump approached winning the Presidence with the same billionaire due diligence that Elon Musk approached Space X or Jeff Bezos approached Blue Origin space launch business…

    Liked by 7 people

  3. Rollerball says:

    Flush out the spies ……. Mission Impossible style.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. parteagirl says:

    I’m not a bit surprised, but the professional political industry just can’t seem to predict that Trump will be unpredictable.

    Liked by 6 people

  5. WSB says:

    I just watched Trump’s speech in New Hampshire. Trump is phenomenal.

    I am humbled to suggest one thing. To show we know how extraordinary Trump is, I suggest the Trump supporters get together and support this, ‘Trumpchange’.

    As an add on to #coldanger, if every person who supports him sends $1.00 to Trump, he will understand the allegiance and probably have the highest grass roots support of all time.

    If Trump is willing to spend his dollar, I am willing to match it.

    Trump 2016. God bless Mr. Trump and America.

    Liked by 17 people

    • sandraopines says:

      Spend money on local grassroots. Buy extra books, t-shirts, bumper stickers anything that spreads the message. Get it into the community. Volunteer. Every city/town/county get involved! https://www.donaldjtrump.com/volunteer

      Liked by 7 people

      • WSB says:

        Also just bought white/clear Trump magnet stickers for the left/right black windows on the car. Chic…

        Liked by 2 people

      • Boudica says:

        It is also fun to get those little vinyl book mark things you can buy on amazon…$10 bucks for a whole bunch…write TRUMP on them in big bold letters and stick them everywhere you go…the napkin holder at your table in a restaurant, the mirror in the bathroom, the box of wheaties on your supermarket shelf, and a few other items throughout the grocery store…go into city hall stick one on the front of where you go to talk to the clerk…stick it where she can’t see it…….be creative but if everyone would do that there would be literally trump everywhere…

        Like

    • WSB says:

      I just donated $1.00 on the website. It took 5 seconds. In the last name tab, I wrote, ‘Trumpchange, Good luck!’

      Strength in numbers.

      Liked by 4 people

    • daughnworks247 says:

      I watched the NH speech also. Trump is so comfortable and easy-going in front of a crowd. No one can fake that kind of openness.

      Liked by 2 people

      • WSB says:

        How amazing…he is a natural leader. He knows when the crowd can become a town hall. He, without doubt, asked for questions from the audience, and brought a man up to speak on stage.

        NO ONE HAS THAT KIND OF INTUITION.

        TRUMP 2016

        Liked by 3 people

      • NCPatrick says:

        Agreed, daughn. Did you see the part where a man in audience, who we couldn’t see, shouted to Trump, “You’re the King!” And Trump acknowledged his remark with a warm smile, made a few other remarks, but then said as he resumed his speech, “Thanks, man.” That spoke volumes to me because it’s the way men speak to other men friends!!!

        One of the best videos I’ve seen was a stroll he took with Hannity, out the front doors of Trump Tower, and onto NYC street. At least he tried to take a stroll, but was immediately surrounded by people who wanted to shake his hand and wish him well: doormen, construction workers in hard hats, people of all shapes and sizes. Trump kept smiling and talking to Hannity, but I was blown away by what a common man he is and how relaxed he is with people. You have to love this guy.

        Like

    • bjmx says:

      I just got back from seeing Mr. Trump speak in Claremont, New Hampshire. A very small room, about 1200, maybe. My 14 y/o son and I had the luck to stand about 40 feet from where Mr. Trump spoke. Very dynamic speaker, no teleprompter, maybe no notes (he had some printed poll results that he referred to). I liked him before but now I really like him. We spent some money on campaign swag but an outright contribution will be heading his way, too.

      Liked by 9 people

  6. Sanj says:

    It’s what I’ve been saying for months through historical speculation. He didn’t accidentally build a great business, almost fail, then grow even larger without incredible fortitude, intelligence and drive. His M.O. (Now that’s it’s out there) has always been to sandbag his opponents by giving the impression that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. It has been a setup for 30 years, which is why he’s always been underestimated. I don’t know who leaked or why, or if it was intentional to scare the pants off the competition, but now we know. He came into the campaign with a business plan and he’s executing against it

    Liked by 10 people

  7. Bill says:

    I always laugh when I see these GOPe RINOS on TV trashing Trump about his ground game. They act like he could never understand the caucus system. Who do they think they are dealing with? The guy is basically a polymath who’s conquered many different highly demanding fields and they think he can’t figure out a caucus? Please.

    Plus he hired the guy who won it last time. These establishment hacks are so clueless it’s stunning.

    Liked by 17 people

    • daughnworks247 says:

      …and he hired the guy who won last time (Chuck) in FEBRUARY.

      Liked by 1 person

    • El Torito says:

      Nothing has changed with data collection for decades – you have a database, you plug in data, you sort the data. There is nothing shiny, sparkly, hip, etc re: data mining. a monkey can do it. Let’s not go down the road of thinking we’ve cracked open some big mystery. Trump’s winning because TRUMP.

      Like

  8. TwoLaine says:

    Never had any worries myself. I knew since Day 1 that TRUMP’s got this. ALL The Way! A LOT of people have waited a long time for President TRUMP. We are VERY Lucky!

    Liked by 13 people

    • Benson II says:

      We are lucky. I say this almost every day. I also think every day about what Trump is giving up to do this for the country. If ordinary citizens especially conservatives would step up and run for office we wouldn’t have to cringe every time we go into the voting booth to vote. I hope he inspires others to run for office.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Mike H says:

    Trump cannot and will not be stopped. He is a power never seen before in Washington. The days of the “Robber Barons” are over (Government corporate cronyism). Embrace the new reality or be run-over by it. Trump 2016!

    Liked by 7 people

  10. WeThePeople2016 says:

    Notice how the Politico still tries to say it is not as strong as Cruz, or Rubio’s, or even Bush for crying out loud. They can’t help themselves after admitting they were wrong and Trump does know what he is doing!

    Liked by 8 people

  11. The Boss says:

    Another shot in dark…”[Trump’s system is] likely to be less robust than those built by the more traditional campaigns of his rivals…” Meanwhile, Trump’s rivals have spent millions and millions more than Trump. They can’t draw crowds like Trump’s, and their poll numbers basically suck considering all the money spent on ads, data analysis and focus groups. I’d say it’s a better bet that Trump’s system is a model of cost-effective, streamlined efficiency, which the RINOsaurs mistake for a lack of “robustness”. Losers!

    Liked by 7 people

  12. fred says:

    The GOP needs smelling salts to come to it’s senses. Why is Rove still on FOX news and why are they still calling his supporters names. They do realize how many of those voters there are. Then Rience Priebus as head of RNC and the cherry is Jeb was their pick to force upon us. This party is bipolar and delusional and going suicidal. gun control came just in time. Nikki Haley for State of the Union… They are driving right off a cliff.. ByBy good riddance. Funny all this is just getting going…look at the crowds. Someone email Trump about being registered as republican to be able to vote in primaries. He must know that.

    Liked by 6 people

  13. mariner says:

    Notice how Politico doesn’t know much about the Trump program, but is sure it isn’t as good as the programs of Cruz, Rubio or Bush.

    Liked by 9 people

  14. jackmac says:

    Has any other candidate got a website full of people like this working like this one working for them?

    Liked by 5 people

  15. Trent Telenko says:

    Sundance,

    This is my take on the Trump political apparatus.

    Trump’s campaign operating style is outside the frame of reference of most media political reporters, all the media editors and, it seems,most of the political consultant class who talks to the American & International press.

    Political consultants and political campaigns remind me very strongly of oil field “job shop” firms. They throw together whatever resources at hand to achieve a project with a final sprint against a set deadline. They build it and walk away until the next project.

    Trump is much more into continuity of operations. Trump does a deal, builds a project, but he puts his name on it and runs it for the long term afterwards.

    You have to possess much better management and people selection/training skills set for the successful management of properties afterward. This is why private entrepreneurial empires like
    Trump’s are so rare.

    This is showing up in Trump’s campaign.

    It has been really hard to find any useful tells about Trump’s ground campaign in Iowa, This is one of the reasons I hang out here at “The Conservative Treehouse” web site as it amounts to a boiler house operation for Trump volunteers and wanna be volunteers.

    Folks here -are not- on the inside, but they are smart, observant and have pretty good bull shit detectors.

    The following three points have shown up repeatedly there about Trump’s operation in Iowa:

    Trump’s people are not talking to the media or other campaign
    operatives and they are running a ground game using recreational
    vehicles without most of the traditional brick and mortar store fronts
    to limit derived intelligence — AKA a place for the other side to watch,
    dumpster dive campaign HQ paper trash, and monitor cellphone traffic..
    The some reporters knows significant things about the extent of Trump’s
    ground game, but they are not being published by their editors.. It is not
    “the approved narrative.”
    Trump’s people in Iowa are doing the same sort of “build the
    relationship with future voters” contact outreach Obama’s people did
    in 2007-08 and 2011-12.

    Please note several things about the above points.

    There are no reports of RV/vehicle rentals in the Trump campaign financial releases. Yet TCTH folks have talk about them. This could be pre-paid services contracted in late 2014 or simply poor media reporting. Either way, Trump is acting to limit what his opponents know about him.

    A lot of the ‘relationship building steps’ in Iowa look a hell of a lot like typical high end hotel “Remember the important dates of repeat VIP business customers” SOP’s in action. This high end hotel SOP is relational electronic database driven.

    Data mining 30-years of hotel guest data world wide tells you a great deal about people, if you are willing to invest the time/effort to do so. Especially if you used outside consumer data to fill in the blanks.

    With Trump, I am getting a very strong impression of a very well staffed, high end, open source intelligence operation with “Big Data” inferences at work in his voter outreach efforts.

    Trump, like he did with Domestic Muslim terrorism, is laying down markers — similar to the Pre-San Bernadino marker of “American Muslims celebrated 9/11/2001 in Patterson NJ” — against future
    events in every one of these mega-rallies of his regards the dishonesty of the mass media.

    This is having a “The Emperor Has No Cloths” effect in that Trump supporters are primed to find all the little lies the media uses to slant coverage. Lies born of the left of center world view of media talking heads and their lack of self-awareness of same

    In fact, Trump supporters are posting multiple POV photos and videos of every Trump rally now without direction.

    Trump’s voter base today isn’t what he had in June 2015, nor what he will have in Nov 2016.

    The key thing for me is that Trump has moved the culture — see immigration and the popularity of the “Muslim pause” — and has rearranged the political landscape on top of it.

    Reagan did that in 1980.

    No one on the Republican side has done that since, until Trump.

    This two way, “Big Data informed”, social media communication between candidate and his supporters is a new phenomena on the American Right and it is very “Obama campaign in the 2008 Democratic primaries-like” in its effects in the GOP Presidential primary race .

    And even more important than his Open Source Intelligence/Big Data capability, Trump has a very well staffed, high end, Counter-Intelligence operation at work surrounding his campaign
    operations.

    Trump made a Million dollars a BILLION dollars by the time he was he was 42 in 1988. He never settled. He in the last almost 30 years has moved that billion dollar portfolio to something like $10 billion world wide.

    Trump needed the counter-intelligence side more than intelligence to get where he has gotten since 1988, if only to prevent his 5-star hotel and especially casino properties from being hollowed out by local politics, corruption and crime. And gambling brings out crime and
    corruption like cow manure brings fly’s.

    Of his billionaire capabilities, this private Counter-Intelligence service Trump built up with his casino properties is the single greatest threat to the GOPe and Clinton campaign operations.

    The Media and Media talking political consultant class simply cannot get inside Trump’s head and his important campaign people cannot be turned/intimidated, because of 30-years of high end C-I vetting built into Trump operations.

    These “capability shadows” keeps popping up in the Trump campaign.

    It costs a new political campaign a lot of money to do the kind of VIP hotel outreach Trump is doing with his new political contacts.Political candidates & consultants have to build this capability anew every time they run a campaign. (The campaign data the RNC has provided Trump isn’t what I am speaking of here.)

    Trump does this personalized outreach for very little compared to other campaigns because he is using a very small percentage of existing innate capability from the Trump corporate IT “Big Data” capabilities. The use of which was very likely pre-paid in 2014.

    I suspect some of the high end American political consultant class has this figured out, but they don’t talk without someone paying them a lot and those who pay a lot don’t talk to the press until long after the campaign is over.

    And frankly, a lot of the fat cats paying these high end political consultants won’t listen to the truths about Trump until after Trump wins.

    Since these high end consultants know when/how fat cats shoot the messenger — it is how they got there in the first place — the full truth won’t be provided to the fat cats until they are ready to listen.

    Liked by 13 people

    • El Torito says:

      Having worked in different hi end hotels, in Accounting, I can tell you that the information about hotel guests, both financial and personal, is as protected as it can get and the penalties for breaches are crippling. No less than twice a month I had to sit in repeated training sessions, complete with tests afterwards, and signing documents swearing that I understood the penalties. So beyond data as simple as “the first week of June is busy,” I’m interested to know what type of data you think is accessible to be mined that is not protected that would be of use to his campaign?

      Liked by 1 person

      • El Torito says:

        I’d also add that there are internal and external audits twice a year searching for violations of protection of hotel guest personal and fnancial info.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Trent Telenko says:

          El Torito,

          I am not talking about identity items like credit card numbers and SSN’s.targeted for theft and financial audits against their theft.

          Nor am i speaking of the guest’s tastes in Adult video entertainment in their hotel room..

          daughnworks247 has seen one aspect of what I am speaking of.

          There is a lot more,

          Think things like local crime data being mined for threat prediction to improve security for casino money shipments and to provide information to hotel guests,and most especially to spot employees who are relatives of criminals.or associates of known criminal enterprises.

          The deep data screening of new hires for lies in their job applications is a vital part of casino security.. And note that,firing people for lying about criminal backgrounds after being hired keeps away the “Diversity pimps” and their statistical hiring practices based, minority disparate impact law suits.

          Crime rates are a vital part of value pricing real estate assets.

          The corruption based gas lighting of crime statistics in major urban areas has to be countered by deep diving into social media to get the real deal as far as on the ground crime..

          Trump’s early spotlighting of victims of illegal immigrant crime at his political rally’s showed a “Big Data” informed awareness of the wide spread effects of illegal immigrant criminality, and its impact on the middle and working classes quality of life.

          The cross over of the Trump business concern “capability shadow” and his campaign are self-evident for anyone who bothers to think.

          Like

          • Beenthere says:

            Could it be that The Donald is a voracious reader that he claims to be & gets his information from websites along with added paid big data specialists? Your reference to The Donald’s “early spotlighting of victims of illegal immigrant crime,” I knew about these victims for many years from the other news websites & sometimes from the British press. Trump has excellent instincts & he has his own ear to the ground. That’s his advantage!

            Like

          • El Torito says:

            Fair enough answer to my question. I would like to re-word my question a bit to: “what type of data you think is accessible to be mined that is not protected that would be of use to his campaign in respect to attracting more Trump supporters?” The reason I ask is because of the way I asked the question initially, I think I led you to understand it to mean specifically to the internal workings of the Trump campaign. Thanks.

            Like

            • Trent Telenko says:

              El Torito,

              To understand what Trump data mining in 2016 is capable of, consider what it was doing in the at the turn of the 21st century for the Department of Defense.

              http://www.historycommons.org/timeline.jsp?timeline=complete_911_timeline&projects_and_programs=ableDanger

              Suffice it to say you can do a lot with both stripped (no credit card/SSN/birth date) and unstripped demographic and commercial transaction data.

              Trump’s people have been marketing casinos for decades in the USA. What sort of data base has that established?

              Trump’s people have been data mining crime data for real estate for decades in the USA. What sort of data base has that established?

              Trump’s people have been data mining customer data for their hotel marketing for decades. What sort of data base has that established?

              What sort of insights are generated if they are merged?

              And how does that inform the construction of political polling?

              One of the big things that has happened with media polling is the well poisoning.

              Telemarketers have contributed here, but more importantly, the media and celebrities have done their level best to delegitimize their cultural opposition. Which has resulted in their cultural opposition, i.e., normal people, refusing to answer campaign and even political questions by pollsters. Their feelings haven’t changed, but their willingness to divulge those to strangers has.

              See the Daily Press article on Trump’s secret support among the college educated middle class:

              http://www.dailypress.com/news/la-na-trump-polls-20151221-story.html

              What the Daily Press did was rediscover “Hostile Field Polling.” Such polling requires rigorous “hostile protocol” polling to conduct.

              An example of a “hostile protocol” is asking someone about showing the American flag as a proxy means of testing their real support for conservative political candidates in a blue state area.

              In 2008 I got in a big discussion with an academic pollster about the non-response rate for polls, their accuracy and “hostile protocol” polling.

              This is what he said —

              “…Typically for a sample size big enough to cover 67 stratifications (the current [Nov 2008] minimum number you need to adequately cover the American public — you’d need more to do it state by state, maybe as much as 3x as many) you need around 1200 respondents. To do a good hostiles protocol you need about 15 stand in questions for the one that you think they’re lying about (if you think they’re lying about more than one, you can overlap some questions, but obviously that produces a spurious correlation in the results. Or at least that’s obvious to me and the people who know what they’re doing; I’ve seen a lot of researchers screw that one up). The 15 stand in questions all need to correlate with each other at about 60% or better.

              And now you see why no network even tried it this time. To get those 15 questions you probably would need to test around 100 good ideas, in about 25 nationwide surveys (since they won’t all start out in the same survey and you have to see how they interact, so you’d test say 7 surveys in your first round … maybe 3/4 of questions would look promising in the second round, so you’d test 5 …. then 3 … then start doing mix-and-matches that would easily use up another 10 surveys). You’d have to pay for 25 polls to make your polls be accurate again. Forget all ideology; Fox wasn’t going to pay for anything like that any more than MSNBC. “

              The bottom line on getting accurate and trust worthy polling in 2008 required the following:

              1) You need a minimum of 1200 respondents to cover the 67 demographic stratifications that accurately cover the American population.

              2) Getting those accurate stratifications costs millions. A subscription with a reputable demographic data firm costs millions per and requires a multi-year contract. The minimum term is two years and has the highest per year cost. Most polling firms used by the main stream media are using 10 plus year old demographic data.

              3) To do a hostile field poll, that deals with how people are now lying to pollsters, you need 15 questions with a 60% correlation between them to get one statistically valid and accurate answer.

              4) To test enough questions (100) to get that “golden 15,” you must conduct 25 polls of 1200 respondents to test those 100 questions.

              All of the above is for a single question on a national level. AKA “Who will you vote for, Obama or McCain.” Additional questions require the same process of vetting the “Golden 15″ and may require a separate polling team to do all of the above.

              Since 2008 many more demographic stratifications have been developed.

              IMO, Trump’s data mining empire has known all of the above on an updated basis since his flirtations with running for President since 2000. It has current demographic data — unlike media pollsters because Trump has long term data contracts as an on-going billion dollar business empire — and has conducted a lot of the “hostile protocol” testing/research necessary for accurate “Hostile Field Polling” by telephone, social media, public data and commercial data bases in 2016.

              This is why Trump has been inside the observe, orient, decide act cycle for the rest of the Republican field from the moment he got into the campaign.

              Liked by 1 person

              • Jett Black says:

                This is a thing of beauty–both your comment and Trump’s apparent long-game. Because he’s getting info from his own market activity, he’s probably able to bypass a lot of the extra polling required to vet questions. Product ad responses, like the “display the flag” hypothetical, combined with demographics, could provide pretty fine-grain info for the campaign, both on messaging and GOTV ops. Awesome. Just awesome.

                Like

                • Trent Telenko says:

                  You got it in one.

                  The 2016 campaign is Trumps only shot for the Presidency…and he has been preparing for 16 years.

                  The implications of that insight are huge, but only for those who don’t have their identities tied up into current politics. Those who do have their world tied up in it — cough media cough — can’t see it.

                  TCTH has the rare privilege of being in on one of the biggest political inside jokes of the 21st century.

                  Like

      • daughnworks247 says:

        He’s talking about the model. For instance, send a birthday card. Gathering info from Trump rallies can be fed into the same software system.
        Not that many Iowa voters are high-end VIP’s at Trump hotels. It’s the system which is golden.

        Liked by 1 person

    • daughnworks247 says:

      Want some insight into Trump’s Iowa campaign? According to Rick Perry’s campaign manager, who was caught by MSNBC on an open mic while rummaging under a table, “Dammit, you can’t swing a dead cat in Iowa without running into a Trump operative”. That statement was made at about 5:00am during the Iowa fair.

      Liked by 7 people

    • notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital says:

      LIKE LIKE LIKE

      Liked by 1 person

    • MissV says:

      This analysis is spot on. It speaks to several gut hunches about Trump I’ve been carrying around with me for some time now. There’s lots of ‘uncanny,’ going on with the things he says, and does. It’s magical to watch. I love seeing that level of capability, smarts, in action. It’s human intelligence at its very best. He’s doing tap dances all over the heads of the opposition and they don’t know where to turn.

      When Trump speaks at rallies it is as though his audience are insiders in his secret club. His language is like an elbow in the ribs, a wink and a nod. ‘We get this, you and I,’ he seems to say – ‘but those guys?’ (meaning the opposition) ‘stupid and clueless. They can’t possibly understand what we’re talking about.’

      There is no way for Cruz, Rubio, Bush, especially Hillary, to have this kind of rapport with their constituents. Next to Trump, they are as flat and lifeless as a squashed bug. They just ain’t got what it takes. And Trump’s got what it takes.

      Thank you very much for your post. It gives me a great deal of confidence going in to the primaries.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Trent Telenko says:

        He’s doing tap dances all over the heads of the opposition and
        they don’t know where to turn.

        There is no doubt that Trump is living inside the media’s and political elites’ collective head.

        Like

    • irvingtwosmokes says:

      You could probably call it an off-shoot of a casino comp system.

      Like

    • churchill says:

      Trent, this is gold dust. Thank you for taking the time to spell this out and thank for being generous enough to share it with us.

      Like you I understand that one of the benefits of coming here is the valuable info from people who get close to Trump’s operation.

      Folks here -are not- on the inside, but they are smart, observant and have pretty good bull shit detectors. Amen to that.

      Keep it coming, buddy.

      Regards
      church

      Like

  16. aWakenow says:

    Well made my change to my voter registration to “R” since we have closed primaries. Had a friend the other day say to me why I would vote for Trump since he was a bully and crazy. I said we need his strength and power. I almost fell over when they said they were voting for Hitlery….and then they replied, “Why aren’t you…you don’t want a woman to be president?” Here we go…they are going to vote for Hitlery simply because she’s a woman. I ended that conversation quickly and moved onto another topic.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Welcome aboard, sir.

      Liked by 1 person

    • froggielegs says:

      I’ll be honest … As a woman, NO I don’t want a woman president! There I said it. I feel better now LOL

      Liked by 7 people

      • Kay Elle says:

        I was at lunch one day early in 2008 with a friend and her 20 something daughter, who was gushing about Hillary. I let her go on until she ran out of steam and asked who I thought would be a good president. I said, “Anyone but Hillary”. Of course that was before we knew what was about to befall us, but those words have come back to haunt me everyday since then.

        Liked by 1 person

    • rashamon says:

      Yeh. It’s kinda like getting caught in a round-a-bout in London and not knowing how to get off. Knowing the salaries some of Trump’s female employees get (and have gotten as long as I have tracked salaries), women should be so fortunate to get the money and skills the Trump organization provides.

      Like

    • Sentient says:

      I’ve thought about telling people that I’m going to vote against Hillary because she’s a woman. It’s not true (that her gender is what matters), but who cares? If they’re going to think it anyway, I might as well set them back on their heels. You could tell them, “if you’re going to vote for her because she’s a woman, I might as well vote against her because she’s a woman.”

      Liked by 2 people

    • Reality Wins says:

      When a lefty tells you they are going to vote for Hillary, immediately say, “Then you’ll be voting for a loser!” They’ll hate thinking they will be on the losing side. Then say, “Why not vote for the first non-bought-off American President and be on the winning side?” At the very least it will make them have to rub their two brain cells together and they might decide to be on the winning side for real change in America.

      Liked by 2 people

      • georgiafl says:

        My responses to a Hillary supporter:

        With her record creating hell in the Middle East as Secretary of State? After Libya and Syria? After Benghazi and lying about that video?

        With her abusive treatment of women her husband assaulted, her lies, crimes, and paying lower salaries to female employees? She’s a hypocrite.

        With her poor record in the Senate – only two bills she got passed were to change the names of buildings, etc.

        Like

    • Eskie Mom says:

      I would have said that I’d considered it, but I was afraid she wouldn’t make it through her first term. She looks bad, poor thing. And what was the deal with her falling & having a head injury…? Play benign concern & plant doubt.

      Like

      • El Torito says:

        The injury is her fall back if she’s indicted. Head injury, can’t remember, blah blah blah. It needs to be used against her by the Trump campaign and I have no doubt it will.

        Like

    • MfM says:

      My response would be I don’t have a problem with a woman for president… but Hillary isn’t one I’d ever vote for given all the horrible things she’s done.

      Like

  17. Tony Keep says:

    Trump’s 30 second TV spot that came out on 1-4-16 was viewed more than a million times on YouTube alone, within the first 36 hours. These are actual viewings, and not just some background noise on a TV set or a computer that people will mute or switch off. These viewings were fueled by constant media exposure with newspaper articles and TV talking heads endlessly discussing the ad. This is exposure far beyond that which even the most highly targeted type of advertising of any kind could provide, ever, in the history of politics.

    Liked by 7 people

  18. One yuge thing unmentioned is:

    The traditional ground game includes about 50-70% of its effort into fund-raising. This effort is not necessary nor accounted for in the DT ground game analysis. The result is twice the bang for the buck; wouldn’t ya know.

    Liked by 9 people

    • MissV says:

      Very astute. I hadn’t thought of that.

      Reminds me, it’s time (again) to open our wallets and send a few bucks to his campaign donation page.

      Liked by 3 people

    • lovely says:

      Brilliant! Very keen thought! Not only are Trump’s people not wasting time raising money, Trump is not begging favors or promising favors, no balancing act, just the business of righting the ship.

      Like

    • Bill says:

      It’s not just the operatives. The candidates themselves spend something like 1/3-1/2 of their time fundraising. Trump doesn’t have to waste any time doing that and instead of $10/k per plate dinners with crony donors he’s holding rallies with 10K people in blue states. With his private air force he can fly around and do constant campaigning and he indeed has been. He is going to force Hillary to spend a tremendous amount of money defending Blue states and thus divert resources from the traditional swing states.

      Liked by 1 person

    • boutis says:

      This is very true. But Bush was supposed to avoid this time and effort trap by rolling up all the big donors early and having an enormous war chest to pull from while he was campaigning. By getting the money nailed down in late 2012 through 2014 (even into 2015) he was to avoid the time suck of begging and have the advantage of shock and awe in big bucks. He was supposed to just roll over everyone and make it look easy with his splitter strategy and be a brilliant shoe in. BUT…. he spent all his time on money, did not develop anything but elite positions to appeal to his donors and wife, and is the worst, boring, dweeb of a candidate. Money, consultants, media adoration doesn’t work like it did pre-Obama the Fake and !Jeb is a bad, doofus candidate and money, consultants, data lists don’t work for an incompetent candidate. Another one was Scott Walker who face-planted early.

      Like

    • El Torito says:

      Leaving a huge advantage to apply resources elsewhere.

      Like

  19. Daniel says:

    I’m starting to believe Trump’s claim of “stupid people.” I have been seeing pure evil all this time, but if they can’t figure out what’s right in front of them? Holy smokes maybe they are just really that stupid?

    Liked by 3 people

  20. marierogers says:

    oh oh..( i avoid FAUX) channel surfing and hes on hannity..he is angry and hitting on the muslim prez..and predicts support in NY..he’s fired up!

    Liked by 4 people

  21. Paco Loco says:

    a Brillant assessment of the “Man With The Plan”. You don’t have a $10 billion dollar business without understanding how the machine works, how much mileage you can get out of it and how to repair it if it breaks…” Ground game, ground game…we don’t need no stinking ground game”. Trump is in the air!

    Liked by 2 people

    • Sentient says:

      I still think he made up his mind to do this at the White House Correspondents Dinner when Obama got up there and mocked Trump to his face over Trump’s concern with Obama’s fake birth certificate. You think WE have cold anger? Trump didn’t get mad. He’s getting even. He’ll need to quickly replace John Brennan in a coup at about 12:01 pm on 1/20/17.

      Liked by 1 person

  22. CrankyinAZ says:

    I am loving this thread… Makes me feel good, on an otherwise lousy day.

    Liked by 5 people

  23. daughnworks247 says:

    The Trump Facebook groups are wonderful but it’s time to gear up the Reddit and Instagram postings where the under 30 group hangs out.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. iowacaucuses says:

    I work in Iowa City, IA (liberal Johnson County) and can attest to the fact that the state of Trump’s ground game here is STRONG.

    Liked by 10 people

    • boutis says:

      They just don’t make public announcements, get their “pitcher” taken for the local daily newspaper, hang around in the local bars bragging and being overheard, make stupid prognostications for the Washington Post or New York Times on how stupid and gullible the locals are, and announce how much money they have spent. Yep. Trump got no game. LOL. Idiots.

      Like

  25. dizzymissl says:

    🙂

    Liked by 9 people

    • Rene says:

      That is priceless. OMG. The campaign guy left a hat in their mailbox. Tears in my eyes. Who thinks of such wonderful little things to do. Oh yeah, the guy who sent is Christmas cards. Love you Mr. Trump. Our next President!

      Liked by 6 people

    • froggielegs says:

      That’s a nice gift but, isn’t it illegal to place anything in someone’s mailbox that isn’t postage paid? Least that’s always been my thought. Now I have to go look it up LOL

      Like

      • froggielegs says:

        Just answering my own question…

        “Recently, there have been reports of people placing non-mail items that did not bear U.S. postage in local mailboxes. The U.S. Postal Service recognizes customers may place non-mail items into mailboxes as a convenient way of “dropping something off,” but those items may cause a smaller mailbox to become full. When a mailbox is full, Postal Service regulations say the letter carrier cannot place mail in the box.

        Additionally, the Postal Service has received complaints of flyers without paid postage being placed in mailboxes. Though many may be unaware, it is important to know that this type of activity is illegal by federal law. It may seem to be an easy way to advertise, but only U.S. Mail delivered by authorized personnel may be placed in mailboxes.”

        https://about.usps.com/news/state-releases/tx/2010/tx_2010_0909.htm

        Like

        • Rene says:

          I used to deliver mail. Don’t think anyone is going to get too concerned about this. Would be funny to see someone try I guess.

          Like

          • Trumped says:

            As with most of Trumps core messages the noise around them makes the message only stronger. Would love that everyone tells “HOW DARE, Trump put(gifted) one of his hats illegaly into a mailbox of a supporter!!!!”

            Like

  26. Newman says:

    All this ground game stuff and data collection is overrated in my opinion. People aren’t motivated by contact’s and phone calls or whatever…they’re motivated by kickass American-first candidates like TRUMP who have the guts to shove all this PC crap up the collective asses of the media and the Washington ruling class elites. And no f’ing apologies for anything!

    Liked by 1 person

    • El Torito says:

      That’s where I was going in my response to the data mining post above. It’s media BS – trying to convince themselves that the Trump 2016 Wrecking Ball Express isn’t real.

      Like

    • Raffaella says:

      I did major campaigning for Obama back in 2008 (I was stupid then). I made a ton of phone calls and door to door. At the end of all that I came to the conclusion that it did not matter. People who wanted to vote for him did and the ones that hated him told me off.

      Like

  27. TheTorch says:

    “while the extent of the campaign’s data program remains unclear, it’s likely to be less robust than those built by the more traditional campaigns of his rivals, including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, who have each spent millions of dollars on data.”

    That is the GOPe in a nutshell – they think everything is about money (the millions of dollars on data will likely mostly be for the salaries / admin for the people involved…)

    Money is part of it, but ultimately it is about the quality of the data that matters.

    Now lets think about this for a moment, who has proven he is efficient, organized and low cost.

    OH YES, Donald Trump.

    So which campaign data do you think will be better ?🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  28. DATA is important for candidates that need to manipulate to gain votes, which is why Ted Cruz, Rubio, and Jeb are using it like crazy. They need to manipulate the sheep just like O did. DATA doesn’t mean squat in this election for Trump. What matters is who I believe and whether a candidate moves me with what they say or do. I’m not on the fence so they can try to manipulate their ads to target me all they want. I’m ALL IN on Trump, have been since day 1. No other candidate comes close to what I feel for Trump and all the data in the world isn’t going to change that! That is the reason ladies and gentlemen that he has 42% and massive crowds and they have nothing or seesaw up and down in the polls. Trump’s support is not moved or swayed by DATA or manipulation of DATA, Trump’s supporters are moved by Trump – PERIOD. When I saw the saying he wrote on his campaign headquarters whiteboard that said “Let Trump Be Trump” I said that is why he is winning because he believes in himself and everything he is telling us, because his entire life has been about winning. He is not told what to say in order to manipulate, he tells the Truth whether people want to hear it or not. Now maybe there are people on the fence who can be swayed by data manipulation. Good, use it for them. I guess what I’m saying is I believe Trump is winning by being himself and the more people hear him in his own words the more he will eventually win over.

    I think he is still using the best data team around, not because he really thinks he needs to but just “not to take any chances” just as he said about the 2M ad buy. He has the heart of patriotic Americans and he will continue to capture the hearts of all in due time. That is how much faith and confidence I have in him. He is destined for this moment, and the monumental task that awaits him.

    Liked by 1 person

    • marierogers says:

      ecpatriot..i think you are absolutely right..i knew that we were seeing something so different and unique the moment he came on the scene in june..there has been absolutely nothng to make me change my mind about DT..multiply that by millions!
      .

      Liked by 1 person

  29. freegz says:

    Trump has walked a few reporters through his “nearly vacant Spartan headquarters” in Trump Towers. I LOL every time he does that.

    Liked by 4 people

  30. El Torito says:

    The man and the message is what’s driving his success. He’s not filling every place he holds a rally because of data mining. He’s connecting and thank you dear Lord for that. This country needs a miracle and it looks like we will get one. Good night my brothers and sisters in Vulgarian arms.

    Liked by 4 people

  31. tz says:

    When you are leading with 40%, you only have to get 1/4 the voters that someone at 10% does to the polls. Actually it is worse – if half of the 40% show up anyway, that’s 20%, someone at 10% needs to get all their supporters, and find an additional one for each already committed.
    Worse (for the competition), Trump’s supporters are very sticky. Cruz/Paul/Carson are sort of interchangeable. I’d add the JVs like Huckabee, but I don’t think they will appear. Bush/Rubio/etc. for the establishment, but between the terrorism, immigrants, and Paul Ryan, the establishment is going to find a ceiling of 15-20% this go around even if they pull all the tricks.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Buck Weaver says:

    I think it’s funny that Politico thinks they uncovered some big news story, and all we learned is the names of two low level data people and the name of a data company Trump may be using six months after the fact. Big deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s campaign didn’t leak the information just to make his “competitors” nervous.

    Liked by 6 people

  33. 9j1d8 says:

    I’d love to buy some TRUMP gear, but I’m spending all my extra dough on ammo. I’ll just stick to telling everyone I meet how he’ll Make America Great Again! #TRUMP2016

    Liked by 1 person

    • Prothonotary Warbler says:

      I got a Trump shirt for $30. That’s about what you’d pay, more or less, for a single small box of ammo.

      Do it. Buy a Trump shirt. I’m serious; do it. No, no, no; I mean it. Do it.

      Like

  34. jccarlton says:

    Reblogged this on The Arts Mechanical and commented:

    The system is broken, so Trump Doesn’t use it. I suspect that Trump is running a very lean tight machine that is quietly putting resources in place when they are needed and dismantling them when they are not. I’m sure that Mr. Trump knows very well how to get office temps and the whatnot very quickly anywhere and with a good data system can find volunteers and ground game people very quickly. I just hope that somebody is keeping track of the operation for future reference.

    Like

  35. The Boss says:

    Interesting. There are no Cruzbots, Rubionauts or Bushleaguers trolling around on this thread. You’d think they’d have been out in full force telling us how much better their boys’ systems are. I guess the Cruzbots are deported, the Rubionauts drinking water and the Bushleaguers looking for their Geritol fix.

    Liked by 3 people

  36. Prothonotary Warbler says:

    2008: John “the only guy who can win” McCain loses every swing state and also two red states.

    2012: Mitt “the only guy who can win” Romney wins back those two red states, but still loses every swing state.

    2016: Donald “the worst candidate we could possibly choose and oh how could you even consider it” Trump puts New York in play.

    At some point, we just have to stop listening to the establishment. They’re dummies at best, and traitors at worst.

    Liked by 2 people

  37. boutis says:

    I said months ago they got no idea what he is doing. His employees keep their mouth shut as you are supposed to do. His “consultants” are not marketing themselves instead of Trump. They work for him not the other way around. If you have to do everything a “consultant” tells you, well, you don’t know what the hell you are doing and should not be running for public office. Consultants, in organizations, are to do set specialized tasks and then leave. Consultants, lobbyists, etc now work for donors who fund them and then in turn control the candidates. It is essentially backwards. Trump is taking it back. This is a whole new game. I can’t wait to see what Trump does with the federal government. Might they work for the public again? The delusion of the media and the RNC thinking an international business owner wouldn’t know about data collection and organization is mind blowing in its stupidity.

    Liked by 1 person

    • MissV says:

      I remember during the Kennedy and Johnson years hearing of appointees turning down their (high) posts because they could not afford to raise a family on the low salary.

      Like

  38. SouthCentralPA says:

    So, Trump’s data operation is Smart !!1!!!eleventy!!!, but Cruz’s is scaaaary/creepy (remember that WaPo article a few days ago … ?).

    Now it is almost certainly true that Trump’s is better, and better funded, and I’m not anti-Trump, but are you listening to yourself as you say some of these things… ?

    (And OT, but did anyone else see Frontline last night? Could you believe some of those things Ben Rhodes said???)

    Like

    • georgiafl says:

      Cruz is using data stolen from Facebook by a rogue company for going after people using psychographic analysis and fitting his message to lure/manipulate certain groups.

      Trump is using data to reach people in a different way with HIS message for saving America.

      D4MN BIG DIFFERENCE.

      Liked by 2 people

  39. mcfyre2012 says:

    Trump has always said when people underestimate you, you have the advantage in the deal. He loves it when he is underestimated by his opponents.

    Liked by 4 people

  40. Truthfilter says:

    People should be careful when assuming that Trump has no ground game. I was told that if we (Trump) can win the south–he wins. He’s not spending his own money to lose this election. I have no doubt that he has some smart people advising him.

    Liked by 2 people

  41. daughnworks247 says:

    My own data analytics.
    Went to a New Year’s brunch at the home of a multi-millionaire neighbor. In attendance were 40+ people from the local little college where my neighbor is Pres. of the Trustees. All these people are seriously involved in politics and have contributed heavily for over 20 years. Probably 3/4 of the room had Hailey Barbour’s number on their cell phones.
    About 30 minutes into the brunch, someone mentioned the word “Trump” and my ears perked up. Everyone’s ears perked up and the conversation turned to politics. I noticed the change in their demeanor and body language most of all. Their shoulders went down and they began to smile through their eyes. They were excited and eager. Not one person in that room expressed support for ANYONE other than Trump and these are people who are not afraid to take an adversarial position. No one spoke about Carson/Cruz/Rubio or Bush. They were all in the tank for Trump.
    I was absolutely floored.
    Let’s hope and pray 2016 is going to be a very good year.

    Liked by 4 people

  42. Muskrat says:

    And this article has finally helped me to figure out who “Sundance” is. I’m proud to see he’s a paesano.

    Liked by 1 person

  43. stobberdobber says:

    “And, while the extent of the campaign’s data program remains unclear, it’s likely to be less robust than those built by the more traditional campaigns of his rivals, including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, who have each spent millions of dollars on data” ROFLMAO I don’t care who you are, that is funny right there.

    Like

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