Candidate Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in almost every poll. While the media broadcast public polls, the internal polling actually drives the campaign activity. With that in mind the public polls provide ‘retrospective’ to either support, or undercut, the activity of the campaign itself.
You might have also noted candidate Donald Trump referencing today’s Reuters polling trend in earlier interviews. Apparently that’s because the trend shows the number two and number three candidates have peaked, and now are moving back into low double digits.
More detailed analysis of the current Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio trend is available HERE
Again, this current data leaves Donald Trump in a comfortable, yet always cautiously optimistic position. There’s no place for football spiking – yet confidence is appropriate given the current disposition of the opponents.
A month of attack ads against Donald Trump (paid for by Rubio, Kasich, Christie and Bush Super-PAC’s) lie ahead, and Team Trump know the best way to identify the incoming is to be on point.
Trump announcing his preparation to launch his own campaign ads is notification to all that he remains prepared, on message and all resources locked and loaded.
Team Jeb however, have been pushed back toward a position where their heels over the precarious cliff. There is indeed a palatable air of desperation showing up in the campaign messaging. The Jeb machine is running out of options; and those political advisers who are financially dependent on the Jeb Machine are now in the phase of quitely reflective self-preservation.
The Jeb Bush campaign water cooler conversations turn to whispers now and contain over-the-shoulder glances before speaking.
The collective GOPe splitter team (Bush, Rubio, Christie, Fiorina, Huck, Kasich) is in the 20-25% total range of polling support – a solid ten points behind Trump…. with time running out.
The space to thread the needle has shrunk significantly. GOPe attacks against Ted Cruz will now most certainly backfire and further send support toward Donald Trump.
In essence, Trump has the GOPe right where he wants them….
….the GOPe collective is lacking support, and if they attack the top tier (Trump or Cruz) they only assist Trump, not themselves.
Ted Cruz is ironically being protected from the GOPe attacks by the impenetrable shield of Donald Trump, and the desire of the GOPe not to assist him.