Latest National Poll – Donald Trump Leading With 25%, Rubio 16%, Carson 15%…

YouGov has published another national poll of 450 Republican Voters (full pdf below).  One of the more interesting aspects to this specific poll is the inability of the Fiorina Campaign to capitalize on the beneficial media.

Thanks in part to Operation Hummingbird, Carly Fiorina was given 15% of total political airtime as measured by Newsbusters.  However, it would appear the larger electorate is well aware of Fiorina’s deceptive intention to portray herself as an “outsider”.

The full 155 page poll pdf  is below.  However, we are also pulling out some of the key data pages so you can see the specifics of where this poll result is coming from.

poll you-gov graphic 1

Click any Graphic to Enlarge

poll you-gov graphic 2

76% of the 450 poll respondents self-identify as “conservative republicans”.  This is statistically quite different from the September YouGov Poll (available here) which reflected a 68% same identification amid 429 people polled.

This October poll uses more total people, and “more conservative” respondents.  In addition 40% of those questioned are from the South.

Carly Fiorina and Jeb Bush do best in the Northeast; to a lesser extent so too does Marco Rubio – All three are establishment GOPe candidates.

Fiorina, Bush and Rubio do their worst in the Midwest; which, not coincidentally, is the best region for Ben Carson.

Fiorina and Bush do absolutely terrible with minorities.  Ben Carson and Marco Rubio poll much better with minorities but still far below Donald Trump.

Donald Trump has equal support across all regions and demographics and additionally finds his supportive wheelhouse in the center-right ideological voter.  Oddly enough, this is exactly where the Reagan coalition was in 1979, “center-right”.

Ironically, this pitch: “the-moderates-are-the-most-important”, WAS the selling point used by the GOPe to proclaim Jeb Bush was the best candidate.  But if you look at these poll results you see those people are supporting Donald Trump, not Jeb.

Certainly the media people will parse this poll for their ideological narratives.  However, if you are Team Trump, there’s a whole lot of good news in this poll.

In summary: Operation Hummingbird has successfully gained Marco and Carly entry into the venue, but they are impacting like ping-pong balls thrown in a parking garage.  Marco/Carly having made it to level ONE, and now bouncing off the ceiling, which is the solid floor under Donald Trump several levels above them.

Newest Poll:

Last Month Poll (Same polling outfit):

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This entry was posted in Carly Fiorina, Decepticons, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Jeb Bush, media bias. Bookmark the permalink.

217 Responses to Latest National Poll – Donald Trump Leading With 25%, Rubio 16%, Carson 15%…

  1. stringy theory says:

    Sundance, thank you for the details on this poll including how it changed from a previous sample–more self-professed conservatives this time. Trump seems to do better, as you point out, across the board. I think too many conservatives are still searching, like Diogenes, for “Mr Right,” the pure conservative who doesn’t exist. Trump’s job is to kick ass and take the GOPe apart. After that, we can focus again on detailed positions. I love your observation that Hummingbird “has successfully gained Marco and Carly entry into the venue, but they are impacting like ping-pong balls thrown in a parking garage.” And they sound about the same. All the face time on faux hasn’t done much to make them popular. I think we the people are onto their act and it won’t work.

    Liked by 14 people

    • PerryC says:

      I agree with your observation about looking for the perfect candidate. That candidate doesn’t exist. If you read comments at Brietbart, for example, it’s incredible to me how many people disparage Ted Cruz because he may not be 100% pure on immigration. I support Trump, but if I have to “settle” for a Cruz presidency, I would be ecstatic, regardless of his flaws.

      Liked by 5 people

      • catmom says:

        I was for Cruz before I came to Trump. I would support Cruz, or Trump/Cruz. I don’t think Cruz can win the general. Not sure Cruz benefits Trump as VP. He is important. SCOTUS?

        Like

        • bofh says:

          Cruz could probably also be of some use if he stays in the Senate, where there is certainly a shortage of non-GOPe voices. And I say this as a Trump supporter who was pro-Cruz (prior to Trump’s emergence) and still wants to believe in him, but is badly troubled by so many Cruz mis-steps and seemingly inexplicable events (e.g. the sPac donation to Fiorino).

          Liked by 2 people

          • Barefoot Journey says:

            If we could hound our senators to support Cruz as Senate Majority Leader and Trump as POTUS we could be a in a good place.

            Like

        • Bluto says:

          I too was for Cruz before Trump. I’m still very, very fond of Cruz, but like you, have doubts that he’ll be able to win the general….and sorry, but the Primaries as well. Heck, Cruz stood tall and fired his best shots from the Senate floor and it had Zero Effect. It’s like his bullets got absorbed and everybody yawned. And I am not criticizing Cruz regarding that, just stating an observation. I think it speaks to how corrupt the Senate is currently that nobody came to his side. Where are all the conservatives? WHERE????

          So, I would prefer to have Ted still serve in the Senate where, hopefully in a Trump Presidency, he’ll be of much use.

          I think my biggest issue is not with Cruz, but with his rabid social-media followers. They can’t accept somebody liking Trump, even if we also like Cruz. It makes them bat-crap crazy. It makes me want to shout – Come on people, try and respect Ted Cruz’s example: Cruz has always been very respectful of Trump and his supporters! That is a good thing.

          Liked by 10 people

          • R-C says:

            Right there with you, Bluto–my thoughts exactly.

            Liked by 1 person

          • RINOKiller says:

            Bluto

            S.O.S

            The regular posters of Breitbart need to move here so they can enjoy insightful conversation without the trolls. Those fighting them are getting banned!

            Liked by 1 person

          • dixie68 says:

            If Trump wins, think what a great Senate Majority leader Cruz would make, or what a great addition to the Supreme Court, or as Attorney General. His is a much needed voice.

            Liked by 3 people

          • Doc says:

            Exactly! I was for Cruz LONG ago. I still respect him and think he’s a great man with probably the strictest Constitutional background. However, he has no chance at going anywhere in this election. And honestly, when he talks it sounds whiny.
            There are many things that I don’t agree with Trump on, like healthcare. However I think he’s 100% what we need and here’s why. The guy’s a winner. We need someone who can’t stand to lose in the Executive office. The country has been sold a suicidal bill of goods that being a victim is much preferred and respected than being a winner. It’s a losing game. It’s time a winner stood up and said what bullcrap victim seeking is. It’s time a winner told the country that it needs to get off it’s rear and get to working and producing. It’s amazing what we can accomplish with a winner leading the way.

            Like

          • daughnworks247 says:

            Agree with Bluto the Cruz supporters are rabid and not objective at all. Really weird because conservatives hated when Obama supporters were equally defiant and irrational.
            I still think the Cruz support all comes back to David Barton and Glen Beck. It’s NOT a Tea Party thing.
            Cruz was the vice-chair of Senate Election Comm., when Cochran was pitted against McDaniel in a primary runoff in MS. McDaniel was the Tea Party guy (and frankly a real jerk – I live here – the guy has been in my house) BUT the establishment came in and spent 240K robocalling Dem’s to swing the run-off. Former Gov. Haley Barbour was in charge of the effort with money from that PAC where Cruz was vice-chair. Cochran won in the general.
            Why was Cruz working against other Tea Party/Conservative candidates?
            Interestingly, the Barbour son went to work for Walker and has now ben hired by Bush in Texas. These guys are reviled by some but they are highly effective in winning elections.

            Like

          • dfp21 says:

            “conservatives” attacking Trump are largely Dem trolls. Was listening to c-span yesterday, Caller said “I’m a registered Republican and …” and the person continued exactly as programmed “… but I have to say the Republicans are disgusting me”.

            Like

        • Big Picture says:

          I agree. Cruz would be great on the Supreme Court. He is not that skilled as a campaigner, and the MSM hates his guts.

          Liked by 2 people

        • gazill says:

          I am still for Cruz; both represent the type of leadership we need in this country. I would like to point out that Reagan “couldn’t win” the general either. Both Cruz and Trump have similar messages, it is just Trump is given more prominent airtime, and is a bit more bombastic, so his message is more prominent. We will do well with either one.

          Liked by 1 person

        • facebkwallflower says:

          Well, I for one think Cruz chosen as VP would discredit Donald Trump as all he says he is and would reveal he is not who we think he is. Trump cannont pick anyone running as they would owe donors and could thus, not be trusted 100%. He must pick someone not a politician in anyway whatsoever, preferably military or military/business background. For the donor obligations alone, he becomes a smooth-talking politician just to get elected if he chooses one of those currently running.

          Like

      • letty bromenschenkel says:

        I too would take Cruz, however, I dislike how “slick” he is: if he were left is “slick” would be tragic
        He is never truly honest: he “skates” around the truth on too many vital issues and people sense it, feel it and are wary about it .

        Liked by 2 people

        • boutis says:

          That is his lawyer training. There are many very decent and honorable people who are lawyers but most aren’t. Cruz does not sound the same talking in small groups or one on one. I think he is extraordinarily careful with words as any really good lawyer is. It is annoying but it is what it is. I still like and admire him and am proud he is one of my senators.

          Liked by 1 person

          • joshua says:

            spot on….if you deal with a lot of lawyers in court…they have a “court voice” there for impact….not at all how they act, talk, or think in their office or at dinner. Cruz is a PRO.

            Like

          • daughnworks247 says:

            I’m married to a retired Boston trial lawyer with a resume that makes Ted’s look like he’s still in school. My husband was also a national mock trial champ in college. Cruz’s delivery makes my flesh crawl and I have tried, I have REALLY tried, to get around “that feeling”. I can’t do it and I know it is not fair.

            Like

    • MissV says:

      You have stated it just right.

      Like

    • Prothonotary Warbler says:

      I like the idea of Cruz as VP for one big reason…

      The VP is the President of the Senate. And, while it’s not normal for a VP to sit in on the Senate every day it’s in session, there’s also no reason he can’t do so.

      A VP Cruz could bypass all that “seniority” business and just show up and outrank everyone there. I love the idea of Cruz gaining more influence in the Senate, and becoming the VP would be a really good way for him to do so without having to pander to the other Senators.

      Liked by 2 people

      • R-C says:

        Warbler, the only trouble with that is the VP/President of the Senate has very little power there, unless a vote is tied.

        The best dramatization I’ve ever seen that depicts this is in the magnificent mini-series, John Adams. Paul Giamatti portrays our first Vice President quite well as he tries to determine what is the rightful role of the Vice President. Adams presides over the senate, but is frustrated at his lack of power there. Senators jeer him; he is the butt of jokes and the target of scorn. It’s an interesting window on our government, and a sharp indication of how the founders did not want multiple chief executives.

        (I highly recommend the mini-series, especially in these troubled times.)

        Liked by 1 person

      • letty bromenschenkel says:

        I like CRUZ as a justice on the SCOTUS, maybe AG nothing else

        Like

    • Kauf Buch says:

      Sometimes it helps to remind people of the adage,
      “The Perfect is the enemy of The Good.”

      Liked by 1 person

  2. prescient11 says:

    Interesting that “conservatives” are where Trump still needs to make gains. Amongst self-identified “liberal” GOP he walks away with it. Same with “moderate”. Funny how yuge leads in those two categories only adds 2% to the total of his conservatives number.

    Like

    • stringy theory says:

      The fact is, no one knows what the final makeup of the voting electorate will be in November 2016. Personally, I like that Trump has a broad base of support in most polls, including women and minorities. Some of the conservatives who are still searching will see the Trump light at some point in the future. Others who don’t understand the uni-party story will probably vote GOPe like good little establishment supporters.

      Liked by 4 people

      • winky says:

        I believe Trump is more conservative than people think he is….. I believe the fact that he lived in New York and had to do business with liberals is why he acted like he was liberal but I do not believe that he is a liberal. When he was interviewed 30 years ago and said he was a republican…I believe he was telling the truth. This “not being conservative enough” is really dumb…a guy like Bush who may have had a conservative record 10 years ago is not conservative enough when he wants give our country away while we pay for it.

        Liked by 1 person

        • boutis says:

          I am finding that the labels that the parties and media impose on people are meant to divide and attempt to control or censor people. No one is a “true” or “pure” anything. “Left” and “right” have also been used to tar people who have opinions that the powerful or connected find alarming or threatening to their agendas. Calling themselves conservatives or progressives when they are much more like a globalist fascist is an example. So called leftist green or eco-climate change nuts demanding people who don’t agree with them to seize economic power be imprisoned IS fascist. I think people get this and why Trump may be conservative in the old definition rather than the new Eric Cantor/Boehner globalist crook of Wall St way. This is also Trump’s cross-over appeal and it terrifies the very people who have steering both parties into the global uni-party.

          Liked by 1 person

          • winky says:

            You said it perfectly…..although I am not a liberal I would rather have been the liberal of years ago……gazill says it right …..liberal of today is a full on communist

            Like

        • gazill says:

          I am assuming that liberal during Trump’s formative years meant something different than what the liberal today is. I see it with some of my friends. Today’s lib is yesterday’s full on communist.

          Like

          • Bluto says:

            I’m old enough to remember that being a “Liberal” meant one would NEVER blindly trust the government. Nowadays it appears that they not only trust “their” government, but seem to almost worship it. It’s not just scary, it creeps me out.

            Like

          • wnky1 says:

            Had an argument with a friend of 25 years+ because I cannot stand her liberal crap anymore… use to tolerate it but not anymore…..I finally told her she needed to GROW UP…it was ok to be a liberal in high school but not where we are now. I just cannot respect her views nor tolerate them and I do not care because we have nothing to talk about anymore…she listens to Bill Maher (gets her news from him) and thinks he’s great. Now do you understand what I mean?

            Like

      • ron says:

        We made a huge mistake when we went for McCain instead of Rudy. It’s true Giuliani wasn’t a pure conservative, but he was conservative enough compared to Obama. He was clearer on the issues and far more articulate. He also would have brought into the mix the Northeast–which Trump would also do. He, like Trump, had huge name recognition and was celebrated not only for reviving New York City but for his courage during 9/11. Let’s not make the same mistake twice.

        Liked by 1 person

        • boutis says:

          The popularity of Trump in the south and midwest is very alarming to them. Those areas are home to ignorant hicks, rednecks and blue collar ignoramuses to their thinking and they should hate a NYC “Yankee” according to their elitist cultural propaganda since the 1960’s. Guess who did very well in the south and midwest. Both Roosevelts. TR and FDR both were very popular in these areas and also were viewed as traitors to their class by the elites.

          Like

        • gazill says:

          I was still not aware of the media machinations during that election at that time. In fact that was the election that highlighted their activities to me. I do not think we made a mistake; I think most of us (but what do I know) were just becoming aware of the ruler class versus servant class paradigm our elected “leaders” have established for themselves, selecting who we “should” vote for and who “can’t win.” I just hope that after that anti-American we have in the WH, it is not too far gone to fix. He still has a year, and no barriers.

          Like

    • NJF says:

      Many conservatives still seem to be clinging to the “he’s not conservative enough,” or “he’s not a real conservative,” meme.

      IDK why people are doing this b/c there is no perfect candidate….ever (although I’ll argue Trump is near perfect IMO)

      Conservatives should also realize that hard right candidates never gain overall popularity, and for me, I’m willing to place my Trust in Trump b/c his sincerity is more than apparent. If we get that in a candidate, then I think we’ve gotten a good deal.

      Liked by 4 people

      • jello333 says:

        And I’m what you might call old-fashioned liberal* on many issues (I have no idea what “progressive” even means). Not always comfortable with some conservative views, and don’t always agree with everything Trump says. AND YET, I’m really starting to like and TRUST the guy. As we discussed here the other day, I’ll probably even be switching my official party status to Republican just so I can vote for him in the primary.

        (* This does NOT mean I support what most current “liberals” do/say. To the contrary, I’m finding myself more and more opposed to them as time goes by, especially where political correctness and race-baiting is concerned.)

        Liked by 8 people

        • Rick says:

          Voting for Trump in the Primary is a key factor. No candidate is perfect but we have to move away from the Elites in both parties, who have relegated the common voter to insignificant status over the past 50 years.

          Your vision is worthy and Trump while not perfect does LOVE AMERICA and is not bought and paid for. He will follow the voices of Patriotic Americans who love their country.

          Liked by 7 people

        • dixie68 says:

          I am what would be considered hard core conservative, but I fully support Trump. I think he would do his best to do what he promises, as, for one reason, he is very direct in what he says, with no wiggle room. Can you name even one member of the establishment (either party) who ever makes a definite statement? I cannot.

          Liked by 4 people

          • jello333 says:

            Yeah see, that’s why the guy is probably gonna win. He’s gonna get support from all over the spectrum… basically from anyone who’s disgusted by the way BOTH parties have run things into the ground, and who are sick to death of walking on egg shells here in our Land of PC.

            Liked by 3 people

          • jeans2nd says:

            “Can you name even one member of the establishment (either party) who ever makes a definite statement? ” Um…Kevin McCarthy? 😉

            Liked by 1 person

            • gazill says:

              Kevin’s defense exemplifies why we in the electorate hold disdain with the politician. It took 2 seconds for the libs to come out defending Hillary because of what he said. His response was tepid. I would have liked to have heard a Trump style response, or even an accusation on the lying of Hill, and the quick assault by the media on McCarthy (though, he is probably nestled in that same pocket). Nope, a milquetoast GOPe response.

              Like

        • boutis says:

          I was and still am what used to be called a Blue Dog. I’m moderate on a lot (not all) of social issues but a fiscal conservative. You can only have nice things like social programs, lots of employees and shiny presidential airplanes if you can pay for them. Because of this I don’t have a party basically. If I can agree with a candidate on one or two really big issues and maybe 50% of the rest I think I am doing fine with a candidate. Thus my support for Trump. He isn’t what Karl Rove considers “pure” and neither am I. Attacking Trump is much the same as attacking me essentially. So I think Rove and the eGOP are fools. After the first couple of insults I stop listening because it isn’t really about purity but who controls what gets stolen and how to implement globalism for the cabal who pays him. I hope with Trump that Turd Blossom has met his match.

          Like

          • NJF says:

            ITA re: the notion of labels. I think very few are “pure” dems or repubs. Most simply don’t care anymore.

            Like

            • boutis says:

              Most people don’t even talk about it except in very trusted surroundings. If you do you get your head bitten off by some fanatic or a dehumanizing insult. And I think people are lying to pollsters or simply not talking. As it gets closer to the primaries after the holidays the interest (which I think is huge even this early) is going to freak the elites out because they can’t poll very accurately and people are keeping their own counsel. This is one of the reasons this blog is so valuable is because people can discuss things civilly and learn from each other and Sundance.

              Like

          • Notmeagain says:

            You hit several nails with one hammer. First, no one’s “list” matches anyone else’s. Purity is a distraction to cause loss of confidence, unfreeze resolution, nudge to a different direction, and it is a big tactic to manipulate voter preference.
            And second, it works because of this:
            Attacking (Trump) is much the same as attacking me
            This is where candidates and campaigns must step carefully. It’s one thing to establish dominance and the idea that force will be met by force. But the essential need is to instill loyalty in potential voters, thus the winning tactic is to convert the voters who support another candidate. Does this happen by insulting them, or their beliefs, or their preferred candidate who is an extension of their ego? No. Think about favorables and unfavorables, and what was said before those were measured. It’s more complex than a mere market strategy.
            Hope someone knows the I Ching: “He is not a robber, he will woo at the right time.”

            Like

      • rodney says:

        What do they mean by “not conservative enough” is the question. Are these conservatives upset that Donald wants a secure border and expell the Syrian refugees being brought in. Is it his position on guns or taxes that upset them?

        Are they upset he isn’t obsessing on abortion to the exclusion of everything else?

        It’s clear by their support of Rubio, Fiorina and Carson these Conservatives are pro open borders, pro globalization, pro destruction of the the white middle-class, etc. I certainly can’t call them Conservatives. Neoliberals and Davos men yes.

        Liked by 2 people

      • Kauf Buch says:

        Most people who make that stupid claim ARE FOR !CHEB!.
        It’s like political crocodile tears.
        They are NOT conservatives.

        Liked by 1 person

      • El Torito says:

        Agree. I think I am almost as conservative as it can get, especially on fiscal, military
        and foreign policy. I tend to lighten up on social issues somewhat. I am 1000% for Trump. The wall, illegal immigration and debt seal the deal for me. The conservatives have been screaming for 30 years for a wall. Now that we have someone who will finally deliver, they choke. I think it’s more of a sense that they need to negotiate for their support. Could work, or be a disaster for the party and them.

        Liked by 1 person

      • facebkwallflower says:

        The conservative clingers mean by, “he’s not conservative enough,” that Donald Trump doesn’t fit their moral determinations of Christian and they typically vote for character FIRST whether or not they have any sort of resume to lead a country. They tend to believe that IF a godly man gets in the WH, God will be on the side of the United States and all will just magically work out. These conservative clingers also tend want to have a Christian nation, bypassing Scripture and replacing the Holy Spirit in individuals with the laws. By this I mean they want to use the government and laws to implement Christian, regenerated behaviors instead of the Scripture procedure/process to save souls: Preach, Beach, Teach. In that order. First Preach The Word, Salvation. Then Baptize (go to the beach, so to speak), and finally after the first two, Teach the doctrines of faith which prior to Preach and maybe even Beach, the people are not “hearers of the Word” and the doctrines fall on deaf ears. Anyways, these clingers will just keep using their “know-them-by-their-works” checklist to decide who is Christian enough to be their president and heal America and guarantee, in their minds, that God will then be running America. Funny, the same people spaz out over a Muslim in the WH.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Eskie Mom says:

          You nailed it. 100% to the letter. I find it interesting that while they are so bombastic 😉 (Are they not?) in their disdain & self righteousness toward Trump, they’re very careful to skirt around this (or they were. They’re coming out more now.) They’re browbeating him now & that will cost him support with some voters.

          In 2012, Santorum gave us Mitt (destroying Newt with exactly the same methods) & Mitt gave us another term of 0bama (We know what 0bama has given us in the last 3 sum odd years. None of that was inevitable). Sadly, they’re too stiff necked to ever see this.
          Pray hard.

          Like

    • SharonKinDC says:

      Although Trump does well w/ all demos, I think more conservatives are ‘parked’ w/ Carson. For now.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Athena the Warrior says:

        It’s Carson with the dangerous liberal positions but the medua hides that information.

        Liked by 6 people

        • There are a number of people posting on my FB page who are posting outright lies about Carson. It’s amazing. The big one I see is that he’s anti=gun. This is totally not true. See his speech to the NRA this past weekend, I think.

          Like

          • letty bromenschenkel says:

            he is 100% for citizenship for all illegals out of his own mouth this year
            he is 100% for giving migrant workers voting rights ; interview with breitbart a month ago
            he claims you cannot deport anyone
            etc.

            Liked by 1 person

    • letty bromenschenkel says:

      when you say “conservatives” what do you mean :
      look at the list :
      all except Trump are for Amnesty
      all except Trump refuse to enforce the rule of law
      all except Trump refuse to protect and defend the nation from enemies foreign or domestic (illegals) ( illegals who murder legal USA citizens and children )
      all except Trump refuse to preserve the sovereign nation rights of the LEGAL USA citizens, their treasure , their character, their customs, their jobs :
      Unlike the others
      Trump has a detailed tax plan
      Trump is 100 % 2nd amendment rights, no exceptions.
      Trump is anti common core
      Trump is serious anti global warming hoaxes and scams
      Trump is anti obscene waste fraud and abuse
      Trump is 100% VETS first .

      read his books :

      when you float “conservative” do you mean “CON” servative

      Liked by 3 people

      • El Torito says:

        Great point. The GOPe has hijacked the conservative brand, no doubt. There was nothing less convincing than Romney trying to appeal to the conservative base. It’s just gone downhill from there. GOP used to mean conservative. Now GOPe acts like the people they stole the party from are the invaders. I pray that we can take it back this election cycle and right the ship. I am convinced only Trump can save this country from going over.

        Liked by 1 person

      • winky says:

        This is perfect…..I really laugh wen I hear people say Trump is not conservative enough but you said it so perfectly.

        Like

    • Kauf Buch says:

      I find it “curious” that, in the second chart,
      so many people identified as CONSERVATIVE Republicans
      would support Marco “Citizenship For Illegals” Rubio.

      I’m not a pro on reading polls, but that sends up an automatic flag for me.

      Liked by 2 people

      • boutis says:

        He is a globalist. That is what he is paid to be. And Jeb. And Fiorina. And the rest of them except Trump (Cruz is a mixed bag) who doesn’t have to be paid.

        Like

      • RINOKiller says:

        With fakes out there, I don’t think those who claim to be conservative are really not conservatives.

        Like

      • JunieG says:

        Cheap labor driving down wages. Empowering Cubans by driving more whites into economic struggle. George W many years ago said that, given a level playing field, the American worker can compete with any worker in the world – to great cheers. The part he left unsaid is that the vision of GOPe is low wage, insecure jobs that make this possible.

        Rubio is Cuban first, GOPe second, American maybe a distant third

        Like

  3. Interesting poll, though it does worry me that Rubio has vaulted to second place. I do think he needs to be taken out early as he would be harder to beat than Jeb.

    I know he’s a splitter but in the back of my mind I keep thinking that he may ‘go rogue’ and become the nominee.

    This just in http://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2015/10/01/exclusive-marco-rubio-fails-support-single-gop-immigration-enforcement-bill/

    Remember where Rubio’s campaign slogan came from: Project For A New American Century. Look it up. This is not a coincidence.

    Liked by 4 people

    • we must remember the next debate will be about the ECONOMY. Rubio will not shine there. i say that is when his poll numbers start to tank.

      Liked by 4 people

      • jello333 says:

        The economy? You mean like money, finances, business, spending, employment, budgeting….

        Oh my God… Donald is toast!

        Liked by 2 people

        • stringy theory says:

          I expect rubio will brush up by attending Father Guido Sarducci’s famous Five Minute University. According to the good Father: Economics? “Supply and Demand.” That’s it. Business is, “you buy something, and you sell it for more.” I expect that will be the depth of rubio’s understanding of those subjects along with how to shake down supporters for big contributions.

          Liked by 4 people

          • jello333 says:

            And when the questions start to focus on the environment, he can get Emily Litella to give him some pointers about our natural racehorses.

            Liked by 3 people

          • I expect Rubio will have some zingers like ‘Trump declared bankruptcy 4 times! My father was a bartender!’ Yada yada yada

            Trump can respond by reminding everyone that Norman Braman pays for the Rubios’ living expenses.

            Liked by 9 people

            • catmom says:

              Trump knows how to deal with debt. That is what bankruptcy laws and courts are for. I like something else he said recently; that all contracts have to end. That is another way of saying contracts are made to be broken. He knows how to engage in the deal, including re-negotiating deals and negotiating debt relief, restructure. Rubio’s got nothing on Trump. Nada.

              Liked by 3 people

              • With all due respect, I don’t think that’s what “all contracts have to end” means. It usually means the offer to perform a service or provide a material good had an ending date. As in, “…will provide service on or before (date)” or something similar.

                Like

            • bill says:

              I didn’t realize until now (thanks, Google) that Rubio was wholly-owned by Braman. Very interesting.

              Liked by 2 people

              • boutis says:

                Is that who gives his wife a salary? For being an “employee” of the family charitable trust that gives no money to anything charitable unless you consider the Rubio’s charity cases?

                Like

        • catmom says:

          Totally out of his element.

          Like

          • Can’t balance his own checkbook. Throws what little discretionary income he has on stupid stuff and crap real estate. I bet the used car salesman Braman is paying his mortgage (employing Rubio’s wife to “manage” a bogus charity) Isn’t she the one with a dozen unpaid speeding tickets? A lousy provider like Marco would drive any woman crazy. Wreaks of substance abuse behavior.

            Liked by 1 person

      • winky says:

        It is 7.30 pm LA time……been hearing bits and pieces from Ann Romney that He would not enter the race…..Just a little while ago Brian Kilmeade reported that Ann Romney stated they are assessing wether he will get in because he is geeting calls from all the donors….read something somewhere that Romnet stated that Trump would probably not be the nominee.This really upsets me

        Like

      • dixie68 says:

        If the debate is about the economy, I just don’t see how any of the others will compete with Trump. Can’t wait.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. John Galt says:

    The wide variances in the various polls are statistically improbable. I think the polls are crap.

    Liked by 7 people

    • hoosiergranny says:

      Figures lie & lairs figure. People who are good at statistical & data analysis can skew a poll easily by targeting the respondents (rather than using random sampling) and loading the questions. What do the Breitbart polls reflect? Not what Republican’s or conservatives think? Only what Breitbart readers think. A very select sub-population nationwide.

      Like

      • RINOKiller says:

        BINGO!

        Hence the 450

        The more polled, the bigger Trump’s numbers are.

        Liked by 2 people

        • hoosiergranny says:

          The only interesting thing about the polls at this point is they are rubbing salt into the Yeb wound that the GOPe is experiencing. After Romney, I’ll never trust another poll. And I find it incredibly insulting to have Romney “thinking about” running again as a 2 time looser. (And don’t even get me started about what I think of Gore saying he’s considering another run.)

          Liked by 5 people

          • stringy theory says:

            Gore is way to fat to run. He might creep along like most creeps.

            Liked by 4 people

          • boutis says:

            The margin of error on these teeny-tiny polls make them worthless. You need a minimum of 1200 or so to get it with 3% MOE. With a 6-8 MOE Trump could be polling at 31-31% and Jeb at 1% which would be why his donors are freaked. I think Jeb will be abandoned soon and then game on for !Marco! the Hispanic Obama clone. That won’t work either. Neither !Jeb nor !Marco! can win Florida because they know them both and are sick of them.

            Like

    • jeans2nd says:

      “I think the polls are crap.” Example – see Great Britain’s last elections. BBC was up all night, unbelieving the results based on their polling. They out-Roved Rove. I watched it for the entertainment.

      Liked by 3 people

      • boutis says:

        The Brits lied like champs to the pollsters. If the politicians lie to you, you lie back to them and their flunkies the pollsters and media then go vote. The British public doesn’t owe them squat in explanation.

        Like

      • Les says:

        Same with Israel and Netanyahu’s last victory.

        That anybody would change their mind or vote based on a poll is ridiculous, but it shows how many sheep feed in our lush, green pastures.

        Like

    • Notmeagain says:

      Psy-Ops. Crap to the nth power, I can assure you with the experience to back it up. The truest thing that can be said about all these polls is Trump is ahead, Carson is probably running second. Cruz looks like a lost cause, sorry. That’s all. But don’t trust me or anything but your gut. Don’t let your emotions ride on polls and memes, pro or con. Head down, into the fray, disregard the chaff, stick to what you can do and know you are operating on faith.

      Like

  5. jello333 says:

    I love how most of the MSM is ignoring the fact that Trump has big leads, and those leads are growing, in virtually every poll. Day after day, week after week. And yet almost nothing in the media about it. Ah… but I know when they’ll finally start to talk about the polls. If Donald’s numbers rise to some astronomical level, they’ve got nowhere to go but down. It’s THEN that the MSM will start to get involved. Trump’s numbers drop from 95% to 90%:

    “Other Candidates Gain as Trump’s Support Drops”

    Liked by 1 person

    • RINOKiller says:

      That is why they are going to start surveying less and go for polls in their favor. They are going to resort to selective tallying.

      Liked by 5 people

      • boutis says:

        And they are doing very few big state polls. The RNC is guaranteed to be doing them though to figure out which states need a “rule” change. I hope everyone polled is lying to foil them. If polled I will tell them how much I love !Jeb and want to live in North Mexico.

        Like

  6. Dixie says:

    It is really strange how each time the GOPe and collaborators begin to mention another candidate, their poll numbers increase almost immediately./sarc.

    There are poisonous snakes in the grass./not sarc.

    Liked by 3 people

  7. prescient11 says:

    Also, I think this poll is pretty heavily weighted towards conservative Republicans. The party is what 40-60?

    Liked by 1 person

  8. dizzymissl says:

    Just found this the other day, it is Nate Silver’s grading of pollsters. Not sure if it’s any help:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

    Liked by 3 people

  9. regedit says:

    Trumps appeal is across the board
    Fiorina is going down,Rubio nowhere to go
    Cruz -pretty strong showing
    Kasich at 4%…?

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Cameraman says:

    It seems pretty obvious that there is a 10% block of the electorate that is quite volatile. First they went to Trump, then some went to Carson, then Fibalota and now Rubio. This seems pretty normal in these extended primary campaigns and nothing for the Trump team to worry about unduly.

    What is worth noting is the one name that floating group never move to – Jeb!

    Liked by 2 people

    • stringy theory says:

      jebito’s campaign seems to be permanently stuck in second gear. If he’s not careful, he may end up at the kiddie table where he belongs. He and Miss Lindsey can play patty cake together.

      Liked by 1 person

    • thomas says:

      Agreed. Just as last time, there seemed to be an anybody-but-Romney effect early on, with all of the challengers getting a brief bump, there seems to be a group looking for not-Trump. But, as you say, Trump continues to lead, and each challenger continues to eventually fall.

      Like

  11. Rick says:

    How disturbed must Yeb be by now. Trump has secured a solid floor between 20-25%. While the mainstream media continues to slam about Trump’s eventual fall, he remains solid and in some cases has relit his fuse with his Tax reform announcement and good exposure through solid 60 minute and CNN interviews with Erin and Don. Now he’s back on Fox, tonight with Hannity. The Don drives the numbers and the narratives.

    Yeb! sits in 5th or 6th place holding his hands to his head when he’s taking his daily dump and just keeps telling himself that he must just stay the course….the 6-9% numbers vs. The “ENTERTAINER” just has to be killing him.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. TheTorch says:

    ====Fiorina and Bush do absolutely terrible with minorities. Ben Carson and Marco Rubio poll much better with minorities but still far below Donald Trump.====

    Well that can’t possibly be right, I mean according to Chris Stirewalt on Fox News last night, Trumps supporters are nothing more than white and of low education.

    Don’t you just love these pundits – dumb as a bunch of rocks! Apparently a requirement of Operation Hummingbird is to be delusional at all times! I can almost imagine him looking in the mirror before he goes on air – saying something like: Must maintain the narrative, must maintain the narrative!

    LOL

    Liked by 2 people

  13. catmom says:

    Thank you for the your analysis of this and all other polls. This is great news for our next POTUS. Go Trump 2016!

    Liked by 1 person

    • catmom says:

      Interesting article. Trump is a phenomenon. I won’t be surprised if Trump takes the first 3 primaries.

      Liked by 1 person

      • boutis says:

        One of the things they are running into is there are few secrets in his life. It is hard to run oppo research on someone who has been so “out there” in the public for thirty years. AND there is not much he has ever done wrong that he hasn’t already talked about. Turd Blossum’s specialty is not worth much with Trump especially with Roger Stone snooping around to find out what he is up to.

        Like

  14. Ej says:

    So I read a comment that Trump may not be able to get on the ballot in IL. What is that about and does he need Il? It’s my home state.

    Like

    • Lulu says:

      Ej, go back up the thread to that comment and click on the link that has been posted with that headline. Then read the article. It’s all there.

      Like

      • Yes, Ej. Then call Trump HQ and ask how you can help. He’ll need IL residents on this one!

        Like

        • prescient11 says:

          Yes, you MUST VOLUNTEER in Illinois. Each congressional district needs 3 delegates and it means knocking on doors for several weekends to get it done. It’s a big process and only from the ground up can we do it. Romney won the primary in IL b/c Santorum didn’t have any delegates!!!

          Like

  15. chili palmer says:

    Hispanics for Bush 7%, Hispanics for Trump 24%. Blacks for Bush O, Blacks for Trump 16%, Blacks for Carson 6%. From YouGov poll page 43

    Liked by 3 people

    • Lenfb says:

      What page?
      I am on page 43 which is table “38: Second Choice Republican Nominee for President”
      I don’t see the numbers you state.

      Like

  16. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:

    Do what the may Trump stays on top. The people can’t be fooled this time.

    Like

  17. Hans Grenade says:

    When will people realize Rubio is a fraud?

    Liked by 2 people

  18. winky says:

    It is 7:45 LA time….just heard Brian Kilmeade state that Ann Romney told him that they are assessing a run because all the donors are calling. She has been making the rounds saying there would not be any run at all. Today I read that Mitt said he thought Trump WOULD NOT be the nominee. I am very upset about this….I think he threw the race last time around …Why is he coming around now? I thought I posted this but I lost it so if I posted it above I am sorry!

    Like

    • SharonKinDC says:

      Trump tweeted about Mitt’s remark, too. Something about Mitt choking at the zero hour, losing a race he should have won, lol.

      FOX has been pimping the Ann Romney remarks, but if you dig more, she and Mitt ‘high five each other every morning’ delighted they’re not in it. She also noted it’s donors calling them to get in the race (IOW, Yeb! donors looking for a more presentable GOPe candidate. I don’t think those donors are interested in young, sweaty Rubio. Carly is a nut case (she said on Hannity last night we need to implement a no-fly zone to protect the moderate rebels. Silly cow, there are NO moderates, unless AQ affiliates Al Nursa are ‘moderate’)

      At best, I think they’re testing the waters. However, does anyone really think Mitt is going to get a lot of support? Trump was way ahead of the curve, reminding the public ‘he choked!’ months ago. Imagine if he does get in, goes nowhere, he’d be a 3x loser.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Eskie Mom says:

        LOL Yikes! Trump would chew him up & spit him out. Mitt (& Bain Capital) are the job killers.

        Liked by 1 person

        • stringy theory says:

          With the latest dismal job figures and the numbers for August revised sharply downward, Romney wouldn’t stand a chance as you note. OTOH, Trump has lots of positive job creation to talk about. Hopefully Romney will realize he wouldn’t stand a chance this time around. He had his chances and as Trump correctly notes, he blew the last, best one.

          Like

      • boutis says:

        And it must feel good to be wanted after getting bad-mouthed in 2012. String’em along Ann then say no.

        Like

  19. rodney says:

    I can see why Jeb is confident.

    The fact is that most Conservatives want a RINO president that stiff arms them. Maybe not Jeb but a clone like Rubio, Fiorina or Carson will do. When you look at the polling the majority are sticking with a bunch of Chamber of Commerce mouthpieces that all promote the same things: Amnesty, open borders, globalization, the crushing of the middle-class, gun control, etc.

    Worse there’s enough RINO lovers to derail Trump. He has to draw in Democrats and Independents in the primaries to offset the Corporate loving Republican voter base to win. Most Republican voters are clearly hostile to Trump and his policies. I just get the feeling he made a mistake staying in the GOP. .

    Liked by 1 person

  20. ZurichMike says:

    I am still puzzled why Trump is not showing any significant growth in the polls. Yes, he’s ahead, but it seems like he’s hit a ceiling of support and can’t siphon off other support. I am very worried that in a war of attrition, there may be just too many splitters by the time the primaries come along.

    Like

    • R-C says:

      Two points:

      One, there is a full-court-press on to take Trump down. Almost every other candidate out there is trashing him; the press is out to get him; and the GOPe REALLY wants to get him. It’s not working–he’s holding steady.

      Two, several of these polls are designed to reflect poorly on Trump. He’s still leading in them all, but they are purposefully crafting the polls to CAST DOUBT; to diminish his lead. (Hmm…Seems to be working…?)

      They’re doing things like a very small polling sample, and likely seeking out areas where Trump is not well liked.

      “CNN/Whatsa-Matta-U Poll: Trump 25%; Carson 14%; Cruz 8%; yadda, yadda, yadda.
      “Polling Sample: 315 humans who work for the Boston Globe.”

      And, one last “bonus” point: Keep in mind that all these anti-Trump ankle-biters are spending a fortune in attacking him. Donald Trump has spent hardly ANY money at all on advertising yet–and he’s sill crushing them.

      If you like Trump, keep the faith–he’ll be fine.

      Liked by 6 people

    • SharonKinDC says:

      R-C is correct. It’s amazing he’s remaining so high, imo. Incessant onslaught. The upside is that mid 20’s range appears quite solid.

      What I find so fascinating, and amusing, is like the Scarlet Pimpernel, Trump is here, Trump is there, Trump is everywhere! Worse for the rest of the field, they’re always running a reactive campaign. Trump is proactive, and while Jeb! is still working out his killer reply to having Low-E (energy) weeks after having that tag placed on him, like cement shoes, Trump moved through different cycles and focus. Now, it looks like he’s laying the ground work for a Melania roll out. Perhaps some events pre-3rd debate to ramp up interest, then into HIS debate, economy.

      Liked by 1 person

  21. Your concerns are valid, ZM, but the splitters are decreasing. Soon there will only be a few candidates left. Trump will be one. This is turning into a ground game. I think (hope) Trump is good at getting down into the trenches and fighting hand-to-hand.

    Liked by 1 person

    • boutis says:

      I think he is an organizational genius because he gets projects (and multiple projects going at once) done on time (fast) and in budget. You have to be able to think on several levels at once and compartmentalize. That is what a presidential campaign is. Not that many people can do it. Part of it is natural ability and part is training and practice.

      Like

    • Spar Harmon says:

      ..that would be when trump walks into the last meeting of a negotiation and closes the doors…
      How very many times has he successfully arrived at that point and satisfactorily “closed” the deal ???

      Like

  22. nwtex says:

    GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump met and prayed with about 40 religious leaders and pastors in his Trump Tower office Monday afternoon.
    September 29, 2015

    http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/

    Like

  23. nwtex says:

    Tammy Bruce 6h
    We had the breaking news tonight, so @cvpayne’s intv w Trump is Friday night. Don’t miss it! Charles is an excellent intvr! @FoxBusiness

    Liked by 1 person

    • NJF says:

      Oh I love Charles!!! I won’t be able to watch, therefore, as usual, I’ll be relying on all of you!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

      Like

  24. sundance says:

    Article on the awkwardness of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio facing off. The big factor is who the donors will stand behind.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-marco-rubio-game-on-214326#ixzz3nNvZGs1A

    Liked by 2 people

    • SharonKinDC says:

      I just love that Trump helped shine a little light there with the “political bullsh!t” comment about how they lie about how much they love each other. If Jeb wants to stay in, he will need to take out Rubio, and Trump provided some marching orders. That it will aid Trump is an added bonus, lol!

      Liked by 1 person

    • stringy theory says:

      It’s Politico, but if you haven’t read this piece, it is worth reading. Interesting that now jebito is starting to go after rubio because he’s threatening to pull jebito’s money guys away. Rover can’t like this development. But, but … he was supposed to be only a splitter.

      Liked by 1 person

    • stringy theory says:

      The piece linked here is well worth a read. I think it sums up the current state of play nicely, including the run Romney, run BS.

      Like

  25. rashamon says:

    The elephant in the room: Rubio and Jindal are not eligible; neither of their parents were citizens when the boys were born.

    Like

    • r they anchor babies?

      Like

      • rashamon says:

        Technically, they are the spawn of people who came through the immigration system legally with the “intent” to become U.S. citizens, remain financially responsible, abide by U.S. laws, and so forth.

        I believe “anchor baby” is a term reserved for those born of illegal aliens {{wee violins begin to play}} whose parents now should NOT be deported because it would split up families who want to remain in the U.S. despite the fact they ignored our immigration laws, making them ineligible for citizenship under the letter of the law. It’s a Progressive game called “Let’s Ignore The Constitution.”

        Not too long ago, an immigrant had to have a citizen sponsor insuring that the person would never be a financial burden on the citizens of this country, etc. Now it’s fashionable to seek the country offering the most goodies and in need of a vote come elections. Documents for such are a dime a dozen.

        Liked by 2 people

        • facebkwallflower says:

          Ted Cruz’s father did not have the intent to become a citizen. He was not compelled to do so until 2006 when it became apparent Teddy was going into national politics.

          Like

          • rashamon says:

            Hey, I don’t think nor do my multiple attorney friends think that Cruz is eligible, but for the sake of not raising the roof over this argument one more time, I will confer to others who insist it only takes one citizen parent to be eligible…as in The Obozo.

            Liked by 1 person

            • rashamon says:

              “defer” (can’t chew gum and prevent spell check at the same time)

              Like

            • facebkwallflower says:

              Agree with you and your friends and with not wanting to raise the roof over with a discussion yet again! Although I will say, I know people who were very vocal in agreement with us but when Teddy came along and said he was qualified, they threw out all their arguments used for that guy in the WH because Ted would know, of course. He is a Constitutionalist so must be right. That was about when I decided the discussion was over and would need to be revisited by another generation down the road when they discover a copy of the Constitution that was long forgotten.

              Like

          • Eskie Mom says:

            The candidate, himself, didn’t denounce his Canadian citizenship until May of last year– after he had been in government all these years. This doesn’t say ”I love America” to me.

            Liked by 1 person

            • rashamon says:

              Yes, I agree with you both. My husband and his law firm even went so far as to say a grandson was not eligible because he was born off the military base while his parents served overseas. No maternity care was available at that Army hospital, so he was birthed at a near-by lying-in home in the community.

              The point by my legal eagle friends is our leaders have committed some very debatable errors since the country was founded and complicating the issues by having a Commander-in-Chief with mixed political loyalties such as we now are experiencing — for instance, citizens vs. illegals/refugees — does not portend well for the unity of our citizens and the stability of our country.

              Nor do we have a budget, nor does our Department of Justice serve ALL the citizens but only those selected by the executive branch of government, and we have an illegal health insurance scheme which California is now expanding to illegals.

                http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-immigrant-health-analysis-20151002-   story.html
              

              But what the hey! No one is stopping him nor apparently care that we now have at least two Republican candidates running vigorously for office who are not eligible no matter how you read The Constitution. Welcome to LaLaLand.

              Like

  26. John Galt says:

    Republican voters hate illegal immigration and Muslims. Trump talks about booting Muslim “refugees” out, Carson says he would not support a Sharia loving Muslim for president, and magically Carson tanks and RINO Rubio goes up in the polls. Color me skeptical.

    Liked by 1 person

  27. boutis says:

    “There are plenty of qualities one might want in a president that Trump doesn’t have. So I understand why people think he can’t get elected.”
    “But Trump will not be running against anyone’s imaginary standard for president. He will run against real people. That’s where things get interesting. In my opinion, Trump only got serious about the presidency when he realized that the one-on-one match-ups all went his way. So let’s see how those match-ups look.”
    “Here are Trump’s competitors, as branded by Trump.
    Rubio: Sweaty kid who lied about doing his homework while Trump built a business empire. Got “rolled over” on Obamacare, like a rube, in case you had not made that linguistic connection.”
    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/130269114086/one-on-one-match-ups-trump-persuasion-series

    Scott Adams has had very interesting insights into Trump and thinks he is going to win it all in a landslide.

    Liked by 1 person

    • stringy theory says:

      Very interesting piece you linked. I think most of the comparisons are right on. It also notes that those who are resisting Trump for now are trying to compare him to a candidate that does not exist. Good read.

      Like

  28. archer52 says:

    Figuring out the Bush vs Rubio issue.

    I’ve been following politics since the day my grandfather, dying of lung cancer, told me he was glad he was dying. As a young man, I couldn’t understand. He said, “I’m embarrassed to be an American.” This was right after Jimmy Carter and before Reagan could work his magic.

    It was then I understood everything deals with politics. And as the government has gotten bigger and more invasive, that truth is even more accurate than ever.

    Since then, I’ve followed politics, studied the ins and outs, the tactics and strategies. I knew about Clinton and his wife before they took office and knew they were going to be a nightmare. A twenty year long nightmare I didn’t see.

    This is my take. Some here think I’m negative. I’m not trying to be take, just realist. Sometimes folks all the news is bad news, doesn’t mean the messenger is the bad guy.

    Here we are seeing the long time efforts of business and other influential people trying to run the world and our nation in the most stable manner possible- for them. For example, the idea of America leaving the Middle East to Putin is NOT their plan! And why you see COC candidates talking about going back in with force to stabilize the region. That IS a COC plan.

    Back in 1992 the “establishment” candidate was George Bush Sr. Reagan was not their choice, but they managed to saddle him with GHWB as VP, and assumed Bush would ride into the White House in 1992. (Remember, it was GHWB who called Reagan’s tax cuts “voodoo economics” and wanted higher taxes.)

    That didn’t happen for a number of reasons- including the Perot effect- which gave them Bill and Hill. Bill they could deal with, Hillary is far more radical at the time. Over the years, she has been co-opted by her greed. Now she is one of the gang. That is why in 2008, either McCain or her were acceptable candidates for the COC/big business.

    However, again an outlier came into focus- Obama. A first term black Senator from a corrupt state that is corrupted with self interest to a level and a history not duplicated anywhere else. He beat Hillary because the people revolted against the norm. He beat McCain because he was the articulate black guy, and to tell the truth, McCain is a nutjob and people knew it. Obama was a blank slate where the hopes of a better future were written by the people. None of it true. Anyone could see how dangerous he was- but desperation and anger blinds people.

    So, we fast forward to Rubio and the rest. Jeb is the obvious COC choice, but Rubio is fighting for the spot. So why is he?

    I believe Obama broke the mold.

    The world has changed under the feet of the aging COC leadership, who do not grasp the tools, the influence and the mindset of the world today. Think WW1. The generals fought a Napoleonic war against artillery and machine guns and were slaughtered. Old generals always fight the last war.

    With Obama sucking the air out of the DNC, there are no real up and comers. Just him and a bunch of old farts. Below him, he did not cultivate anyone that would challenge him in the future. So goes the megalomaniac mind.

    Rubio and the rest see what happened in 2008. They also see the nearly empty field of battle (due to Obama) and figure lightning can strike twice. And the MSM has given Rubio a great deal of time and accolades, so his ego is well stroked.

    Remember one thing about Senators. Every morning when they look in the mirror they see a President. It just is. I think Lindsey Graham is running for that very reason. His two buddies did it, why not him. Do not underestimate ego when it comes to politicians.

    I think Bush and Rubio are friendly, but this is the big enchilada and with that goes any friendships. If Rubio wins, he will be a COC guy, not because he is their first choice, but he will deal with them like Bill Clinton did. Same with Carly, John, Mike, and the crew.

    The only two outsiders, other than Trump, is Cruz and Paul- who also see the field and hope to catch lightning in a bottle too. Cruz is a pragmatic true believer in the Constitution. Paul is his daddy’s boy, no matter how hard he tries to say otherwise. Put a little pressure on him and crazy daddy pops out.

    Sundance sees splitters. I see egos. And with the Super PACS it only takes a few rich people to back “their guy” in what may turn out to be super rich game of “I bet my guy beats your guy”. Time will tell which theory is correct, but they may mirror each other in function. I could be wrong. And I agree the RNC does not want Trump. It isn’t that he isn’t one of them, it is that he is one of them that will demand THEY answer to him. That scares them.

    I believe Obama will force Hillary into retirement. Then he will secure his place as the leader of the DNC and will lead the democrats into the wilderness for a decade or more. His far left desires do not match up with but only a small percentage of people- and as they age and pay taxes and see the end results- those same people will drift away from his ideology. This is why they want to control education and young people- they need new naive blood.

    What’s the quote?

    “Anyone who isn’t a socialist at 16 has no heart, but anyone who is still one at 40 has no mind.”

    We are in new world, driven by new technology and philosophies. and I don’t think consultants and COC and big business really grasp them. I have a favorite phrase I use just about the time something breaks down and the fire starts.

    “Unintended consequences”.

    I don’t think any single person can really wrap their heads around what has happened to our world; who is in it, what motivates them or what they really want.

    Right now, we are watching a bunch of club-footed buffoons trying to herd cats. It looks coordinated on the surface, but trust me, behind the scenes they are going “WTF!” over and over.

    I am taking notes on this period, you should too. Someday, somebody is going to ask us what happened as the entire world, and our place in it, will have changed forever.

    Just my take on this historic time.

    Liked by 2 people

    • stringy theory says:

      Very interesting comments. I basically agree with what you say except, perhaps, for a few minor details. Ego is certainly a main driver for Senators.

      Like

    • Masterdeviance says:

      Great post, archer52.

      Your note on Syria reminded me why Trump’s foreign policy has always been appealing (same goes for Paul actually, but he killed his chances a while ago):

      I think Trump favors the Pat Buchanan POV – the Middle East is a quagmire and the sooner we GTFO of there, the better for our nation. Recall that he was originally against the Iraq war (prescient). The plutocrats and Wall Street crowd (I.e. Bush and Rubio donors) of course have vast sums of $$$$ tied into making sure we keeps foothold there, though.

      Beyond just Trump’s superior domestic policy, it’s also his foreign policy sensibility that’s necessary for us to turn the corner I think.

      Like

    • winky says:

      So what you are you saying?…Do you not believe a Trump presidency is possible?

      Like

      • archer52 says:

        Yes. Not that it would be my first choice. I fear he would be the living embodiment of “unintended consequences”!

        But the world has changed. And nobody has a handle on it.

        Like

  29. czarowniczy says:

    Y’all can keep Jindal up on that board, move the pointer over to Pataki. Jindal’s been busy not being in the state and, when he is, his dissembling and p-poor leadership has not endeared him to either Republicans, RATS of mugwumps so we not only won’t miss him we’ll appreciate his not being in the state and stirring up an even bigger mess. Y’all can feed and groom him for a while.

    Like

  30. Just saw this piece on Screwbio. I’m getting scared with the softening attitude cropping up in conservative blogs.

    http://bit.ly/1P9k1y8

    Like

  31. labrat says:

    Versions of this story are all over the net today.
    http://conservativetribune.com/trump-gets-devastating-news/

    Like

    • stringy theory says:

      If this is about the Illinois delegate thing, it’s old news. You might want to look at the previous posts on this and be not afraid.

      Like

  32. Zack says:

    I Don’t believe Obama broke the mold.. jus say..

    Like

    • TheTorch says:

      One thing to note with this poll is the support for Trump in the Key Demographics section and also note that this poll was conducted September 22-27 – which is before the big tax reform announcement on the 28th.

      Like

  33. ssupsky says:

    Each of the candidates has pro points that many can point to. This is all good and will bring others to support them. In the long run though, they will fail as they are weeded out and they are vetted. The difference between the candidates and Mr. Trump is glaringly obvious, but none point it out, though anyone with a smidgen of intelligence can see it.

    Mr. Trump is a deal maker. He makes deals left and right and has all his life. he can run on that record easily. He has amassed a great deal of wealth in making these deals. To be able to do this, one has to be honest in their deals and be able to stay on top. Mr. Trump keeps his word and so anything that he is saying to the American people during his campaign can be assured that he will do what he says he will do. This, I think, is what draws many to him. Yes, there are other reason as well, but this seems to be an underlying foundation.

    There are a couple of other candidates that have shown that they attempt to keep their word, the one that comes to mind is Ted Cruz, who has been a voice of opposition in the GOPe controlled congress. Ben Carson I think also has been more truthful than most in his campaigning.

    Others cannot run on their records so much as it would be hurtful for them. They are in fact closet liberals attempting to run as republicans and conservatives. They can spout off about doing this and doing that, but they will be ensnared by their histories.

    Bush – Governor of Florida, cannot hide that. Also, his name recognition is a snare for him. Wants amnesty.

    Carson – Outsider, bonus for him. When liberal policy stances become more know, acts a weight around his neck. Wants amnesty.

    Christie – Liberal running as republican. His governorship will be an anchor around his waist. Also, hugging Obama his a hitching point. Wants amnesty.

    Cruz – Runs as a conservative and record shows staying true to that calling. Visa immigration is a weakness.

    Fiorina – Failed executive and failed ceo. Past political campaign member of two previous campaigns. Wants amnesty.

    Graham – Runs as a conservative, records show that he has liberal tendencies. Snake oil salesman. Wants amnesty.

    Huchabee – Televangelist, governor. Tries to come across as trustworthy but has a decidedly whining, pleading stance. Wants amnesty.

    Jindal – Governor. Not liked by own constituents. Wants amnesty.

    Kasich – Governor. Tries to run on record. Claims to have decreased spending but spending went up. Wants amnesty.

    Pataki – Slick as black oil. Trustworthy as a hunting snake. Wants amnesty.

    Paul – Hedges bets by running for two seats. Goes berserk at times. Seems unstable on issues to the point of being too narrow-minded.Wants isolation.

    Rubio – Criminal past while in Florida senate. Duplicitous when speaking. Wants amnesty.

    Santorum – Weak. Very drab in conviction. Wants amnesty.

    Trump – Outsider. Self made billionaire. Honest. Wants free trade. Stated positions. Against amnesty.

    Verily, there is much more that can be said about the above candidates, but this is merely a very short synopsis of them and where they stand.

    Just a few thoughts.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. dizzymissl says:

    Look at what the heinous Megyn Kelly said:

    IMO, Fox needs more of a piece of our mind.

    Like

    • dizzymissl says:

      If you can stomach it, here’s the video. It’s even worse than what is on the above.

      Like

    • TheTorch says:

      She bought into the premise – that Stirewalt (one on the left) stated, what he said was actually even worse, I find this guy totally obnoxious and what he said was a monstrous lie, which even a glance of the USA today poll which I think was released the same day as this refutes! This is there narrative though and they are sticking with it, even though there is no data to support it. Remind you of anyone, oh yes, King Barack.

      Liked by 1 person

  35. Trump has hired state directors for Texas, Virginia & Florida. However I’m troubled by this
    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/donald-trump-texas-state-director-criticism-214370

    What do we know about these people?

    Like

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