Iowa is essentially irrelevant for the GOPe candidate and never part of any plan for Jeb Bush. The same was true in ’11/’12 for Romney who basically ignored the state rather than spend all the necessary schmooze time. (Santorum won in ’12) In recent elections Iowa has not been favorable for the establishment teams.
But for Scott Walker, Iowa is a regional necessity if he is to remain a viable candidate. Thus the latest Iowa poll displays a troubling reality.
In July Walker was pulling 12% in Iowa, that dropped to 8% weeks later in the Des Moines Register poll; a few days later Walker registered 7% in the Monmouth Univ. Poll; now he’s down to 3% in the latest Quinnipiac result. 12,.. 8,.. 7,.. 3,… well, you can see the problem.
Walker was expected to attend a California GOP convention next Saturday as the Keynote Speaker. According to recent reports he abruptly cancelled his plans:
[…] Walker had been scheduled to deliver the keynote at the GOP gathering next Saturday but abruptly withdrew, according to the paper.
Walker’s campaign did not respond to the paper’s request for comment. (link)
It would be reasonable to assume the Iowa polling has something to do with Walker reassessing his schedule. A recent campaign picture also paints a thousand words:
Walker has essentially been tripped up by his own national campaign message; which appears heavy on consulting advice and light on an internal compass. Understandable considering the stark difference between regional or state success, and the MUCH larger national campaign stage.
It’s easy to see how a candidate like Walker can listen too much to the professional consulting crowd – ultimately losing his self/campaign identity. Obviously the Wall Street Journal influence has buried him in messaging advice, often in conflict with common sense. Immigration is one such misstep – straddling both sides of the fence never works.
In the Top-of-the-Poll Headline News: Trump continues to lead, while the media and Jeb Bush alliances urgently work to push non-vulgarian Ben Carson into the #1 spot.
They RNC/GOPe (Wall Street interests et al) need a visible and statistical result so they can drum beat the “Donald Trump has peaked and is now slipping” message. They are urgently looking for a POLL RESULT they can sell as a ‘see-toldyaso’ breaking news alert. Carson in Iowa is their best hope at creating that narrative/optic.
What’s interesting inside the poll itself, is the motive of the poll funding source. You can see the question:
1A. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING TRUMP VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
Likely Rep Caucus Goers – Matchup without Trump etc. (link)
Notice how it is only the absence of Trump that garners the Second Choice vote. They don’t ask the general question “who is your second choice” of all the candidates – they qualify the question by removing the Trump option for the other 16 candidates.
This method allows the poll USER to inflate the value of any non-Trump candidate by adding their primary support and secondary support together.
Why do they do this?
Well, if you leave the entire field available you get this result (CNN/ORC): A result which is bad news for anyone who wants to downplay Trump’s candidacy. As you can see, and as the Washington Post outlines, Trump is at 50% with primary and secondary support:
[…] So say what you will about Trump having a block of people who don’t want to vote for him; despite early polls showing two-thirds of Republicans didn’t like him and more than half said they would never vote for him, half of Republicans right now seem willing to vote Trump. And if my math is correct, 50 percent of the vote is more than enough to win in a 17-person field. It could even be enough in a two-person field. (link)
That’s not good when your goal is to play down Trump, and inflate Carson. Subsequently you eliminate the reality of Trump having so much support by removing him from the consideration.
The CNN/ORC poll is why the Quinnipiac Poll is worded to be absent of Trump as above.
When you are selling information to and through the media, and you want to hide the motive of your manipulation, it’s best to control the inputs. See how they roll?