The current, 2013, political discussion about U.S. intervention in Syria is exactly the same conversation from February 2011 about Libya.   Same argument (R2P), same players (Obama, Power, Rice, Jarrett) and same ideology – The only difference is ignoring the anticipated outcome. 
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When the Freedom Green Party in Iran stood up in 2009, President Obama said he preferred to “reach out” – The Islamists killed the Freedom Criers.
In Egypt, 2010, Obama played golf, then stood behind al-Qaeda affiliate Mohammed al Zawahiri and Muslim Brotherhood Candidate Morsi – The Islamists killed the Freedom Criers.
In Libya, 2011, Obama played golf, then stood behind “the rebels” led by Mustafa Abdel Jalil, who held the place card for al-Qaeda Benghazi Division –  The Islamists drove the Freedom Criers to Tripoli and now control Eastern Libya, Benghazi, Darna et al.
SyriaIn Syria, 2011, Obama played golf, then played golf, then played more golf, and then finally played even more golf.
Leading to Syria, 2013.
When Saddam Hussein’s family fled Iraq, where did they go?   Syria.   When Hussein was playing hide-and-seek with the WMD used to kill the Kurds, where did the convoys go?  Syria.
When the Afghanistan fighting season ended in 2011 where did the Ayman al Zawahiri al-Qaeda go?   Egypt and Libya.   When Benghazi started to work on overthrowing Quackdaffy, where did the “rebels” come from?   Egypt, Iraq and Afghanistan.
You see, this is, essentially, a mobile al-Qaeda force compromised of hardline Salafist Islamists, who flow to where the freedom conflict lies, and when they get there they mount their efforts.
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When their efforts are running into trouble, what do they do?   They, al-Qaeda, pull in the West, NATO, and the U.N. to aid them.    They showed how successful they are with this approach in Eastern Libya, specifically Benghazi.    Once established, they fractioned off again and headed to Syria.
Once on the ground in Syria, the al-Qaeda operatives co-opted the Free Syrian Army, took over the primary fighting, established a foothold, organized themselves and killed off the moderates.   Then took over/set up the attack against the regime;  in this case Assad.
Did WMD get used in Syria?   Probably, yes.    Who used it?  Occam’s Razor would point to al-Qaeda.   Why?   Because they are stalled against the Assad regime and need, once again, the West, NATO, the U.N, and the United States to do the heavy lifting.   Same/Same as Libya.
Did al-Qaeda in Syria have access to the WMD?   Oh, heck yeah.   They have taken over multiple structural military bases.
Will Obama bomb the Assad Regime out of power?   Probably, yes – under the same auspices we bombed Quackdaffy out of power.   The Responsibility To Protect doctrine (R2P).    Who will then take over?   al-Qaeda.
al-Qaeda with flags
Is there any upside?    Maybe, but not likely.
The maybe stems from:  If the Freedom folks in Syria can pull over the same maneuvers as Egypt they might stand a chance.   But their challenge is much greater than Egypt.
The Freedom Folks  would first need to survive the rise of The Muslim Brotherhood, al Qaeda, and then need the remaining Syrian Army and the FSA to join forces with them and overthrow the Islamists.
This is far more difficult than Egypt because the Syrian regular military have no taste for Western Freedom like the Egyptians did.   Actually, not too many people in Syria have the same freedom experiences as the Egyptians, and perhaps even less than the Libyans.
Their more likely scenario for survival is to flee to Turkey.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu must be at his wits end right now.    He just got a sigh of relief in Egypt to his South, only to find himself looking at much closer, and a more radical Syria about to come at him from the North East.
FUBAR
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Israel Border Map

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