The Wall Street Journal and NBC have published their last national poll prior to the debate qualification cutoff. However, there’s something considerably afoot with the entire construct of the debate field.
In addition, this poll is sketchy at best, because it only includes “252 interviews” within the poll, yet is considered a “substantive poll” used for the qualification of the debate field. Yeah, go figure that one out.
The Highlighted Candidates are the 10 “debate qualifiers”:
(Via NBC) Days before the first Republican debate, Donald Trump has surged into the national lead in the GOP primary race, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush following, a new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll shows.
- Donald Trump – 19%
- Scott Walker – 15%
- Jeb Bush – 14%
- Ben Carson – 10%
- Ted Cruz – 9%
- Mike Huckabee – 6%
- Rand Paul – 6%
- Marco Rubio – 5%
- Chris Christie – 3%
- Rick Perry – 3%
- John Kasich – 3%
- Bobby Jindal – 1%
- Rick Santorum – 1%
- Carly Fiorina – *
- Lindsey Graham – *
- George Pataki – *
- Jim Gilmore – *
(LINK) Only the top 10 candidates — calculated by an average of the last five major national polls — will be eligible to participate in Thursday’s FOX News debate in primetime, according to the network’s rules. Incorporating the new NBC/WSJ numbers, NBC estimates that the top ten candidates at this time are:
- Trump – 19.8 percent
- Walker – 13.2 percent
- Bush – 13 percent
- Paul – 6.4 percent
- Carson – 6.4 percent
- Rubio – 6.2 percent
- Huckabee – 5.8 percent
- Cruz – 5.8 percent
- Christie – 3.2 percent
- Kasich – 3.2 percent
Those missing the cut are:
- Perry – 2.6 percent
- Santorum – 1.4 percent
- Jindal – 1.4 percent
- Fiorina – 0.6 percent
- Pataki – 0.6 percent
- Graham- 0.4 percent
- Gilmore – 0 percent
Those following along will note the underlying CoC strategy playing out with (what I believe to be help from) Fox News Leadership.
Those of you who haven’t read the previous discussions and research analysis of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Tom Donohue, the GOP establishment and professional republicans, and the 2016 strategy to elect Jeb will not fully understand the foundation of what’s happening. [You can catch up HERE] [and HERE]
For those who have followed along since October 2013 (GOP planning) and May 2014 (GOP road mapping), you are seeing another of those “tripwires” triggered today.
Remember the CoC/GOPe Jeb’s strategy involves splitting the Non-Jeb vote into smaller segments thereby insuring that Jeb Bush can win the overall nomination while only carrying 10-15% of the electorate vote.
Toward this end the CoC/GOPe has quietly financed candidates to keep them in the strategic race. The larger electoral states (Texas, Ohio, Florida) have CoC funded candidates within them ( Perry, Kasich, Rubio ) all with the goal to splinter the Non-Jeb vote.
In addition with the risk of Trump continuing to increase and the looming possibility he will knock over the apple cart, the CoC is now buying additional insurance policies. That’s why Virginia just became important, and so the CoC financed Jim Gilmore to enter the race. Gilmore, like Rubio, is an insurance policy – split Virginia, then endorse Jeb.
These GOPe Machiavellian Chess guys are really good – but if, like us, you watched the GOP through the weapon’s Atwater provided; and if you recognize the scope of the Citizens United decision to become the GOPE’s sharpening stone; and if you followed Atwater’s far less skilled protégé Karl Rove, you can see through the scheme. You just need to know what you’re looking for – the trip wires.
IMPORTANT – Remember, in order for the plan to work, there must be a candidate from Texas, Ohio, Florida (Large Electoral Counts) and now Virginia, who is NOT JEB; and who can split the NOT JEB vote. This is the lynchpin for CoC/GOPe success.
Now, notice Kasich (Ohio) debate qualifies with 3.2%. Perry not meeting the cut is not important because he’s an expendable secondary insurance, with dual value, Texas and South Carolina (Perry is valuable in SC hence the CoC funding him there).
In order for the CoC/GOPe 15% strategy to work, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz must be on the ballots in Ohio, Florida and Texas. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz (and/or Perry) must be kept in the race.
