Thoughts On Michigan, Romney, CPAC, and A Brokered Convention…..

Eyes WIDE Open peeps.  Keep your eyes wide open.  Watch the shell, not the hand.

Ad rem provided a link today to a new *PPP poll coming out of Michigan which shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by 15 points.   (*note don’t forget that PPP is known to be a liberal leaning polling operation contracted by SEIU and DailyKos and is a Democrat polling firm)  See Doug Ross for more on PPP here.

But setting aside the polling ideological slant, this is an important development and if the actual primary delivers the same result the consequences cannot be overstated.

Michigan is important because inside the media narrative it is being sold as “Romney’s” home state.   This despite the fact that the majority of Michiganders do not consider Romney to be ‘one of them’, but I digress.  If Romney loses in Michigan the narrative will be about his unelectability, period.   So Michigan is important not only as a bell weather for conservative sentiment, but also as the biggest potential repudiation of Romney as a valid nominee for the electorate.

Yesterday at CPAC Romney was only able to garner a lukewarm reception and following his speech the narrative was more about him trying too hard to be something he is not.  In my opinion this is actually a factual narrative.   He is trying too hard, and he is not the least bit conservative.   He certainly is not “severely conservative” as he proclaimed in his speech, and the more Romney talks the more awkward he looks amid crowds that should be, or at least everyone claims should be, his primary base.   He just doesn’t fit in.  Period.

Yet who wins the CPAC straw poll?   Yep, Mitt Romney.   Much to the glee of Ann Coulter, Matt Drudge, and the ENTIRE GOP establishment of Romney pushers.   With Al Cardenas controlling CPAC playing the part of the Wizard, and the GOP establishment controlling the machine and telling him what buttons to push.   C’mon peeps, flippin Mitch McConnell gives a prime time speech?   WTF?   Yuck !!

Meanwhile the patriotic conservative crowd gather to stare at the show like the good little munchkins the Decepticons need them to be.   Look shiny things over there…. ooh, aahh.. :(   Sarah! – Sarah! – Sarah!  They chant whilst ignoring the fact that those who control the wizard would have anything except vicious contempt for Palin.   As one of their uncontrollable enemies she must be kept close, very close.     

But if Romney loses Michigan, where does that leave the Decepticons, The Establishment and the blazered Cocktail party republicans?    How are they gonna spin that one?

Short answer.   They won’t.    They’ll quickly move to initiate back-up plan #345.   A brokered convention.   

Eyes wide open peeps.  Eyes wide open.    Why do you think they are visibly laying out, or preparing, the electorate for the possibility in front of the masses right now?

#1   It depresses turnout in primaries.   Why vote if a brokered convention appears relatively possible on the horizon.    Who does that benefit?   Yep, Romney.

#2  It prepares people for their back-up plan, to make it seem just a course of doing electoral business.   Why?  Because people don’t understand the rules, the Super-Delegate rules, and the machinations.

In a brokered convention the establishment wins.   It’s over at that point.   Romney will win.   The only question is what’s the purchase price?    The currency is manipulation and influence.    Who are the “Super-Delegates”?  Do some research to find out who your delegate representatives are from your state, then find out who are the “Super Delegates” and what that means.    I think what you will discover  is they are 100% entrenched political class, they are the establishment.   Former governors, speakers, and elected officials that are in the tank for the GOP machine.

Purchase price?    That’s the entire game that Ron Paul is playing for.   Ron Paul cannot win, he knows he cannot win, he even says he cannot win.   Winning is not his goal, building currency (influence) is.    He will define the purchase price  (not money but what he wants to see accomplished)  for his delegates and he can make that price quite significant, significant enough so that only the richest of candidates (those with biggest clout) could afford it.    Presto, “Mitt Romney” with the full contingent of Decepticons and insiders behind him.

In a brokered convention the people, the average everyday American, is irrelevant.   The political class doesn’t care.   They define everything and they’ll select who they want.  

In a brokered convention regardless of the collective outcome from all of the state primaries, and regardless of how many losses and weak he is, Romney will be anointed.

Period.  Done.  Over.

Anyone who is a proponent of a brokered convention is either a Romney supporter, or does not understand how they are being played to arrange the very outcome they are against.   It is all smoke and mirrors.   Why do you think in many of  these caucus states the delegates are “non-binding”? 

Remember why Jon Huntsman was in the race?   He was the back-up QB in case something happened to Romney.   A brokered convention is essentially the same thing, except with the outcome of a disenfranchised electorate as a guaranteed result.   You think people are upset about Romney’s campaign of scorched earth attacks against any opposition?   Just wait till you witness the anger upon Mittens anointment when everyone all of a sudden realizes….

………….  They’ve Been Played !!    

 

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48 Responses to Thoughts On Michigan, Romney, CPAC, and A Brokered Convention…..

  1. JRD says:

    Very nicely done, sundance!!!

  2. GFCandinthatorder says:

    Frilliant! !!!!

  3. Avram says:

    Great analysis. I have some questions: You explained Paul’s strategy. Would Romney also need the votes of the Gingrich and/or Santorum delegates? What are the chances he’d stick to whatever bargains he makes?
    Do you agree with Breitbart and Palin that, at the end of the day, conservatives need to support who ever is nominated, because the alternative if far, far worse?
    Finally, please keep using the wolverine foto. It raises my spirits every time I see it. Gotta copy it and plaster it on my walls. Maybe I’ll wallpaper the living room with it.

  4. AFinch says:

    I see a lot of worrying, a lot of warnings and a lot of dire predictions. What I don’t see are a lot of strategies for preventing this from happening. Indiana’s delegates are not chosen until the state convention in June. The deadline to register to become a delegate is Feb. 22. http://www3.webng.com/ronpaul/delegatestates.html

    If we want to stop the establishment, we have to actually DO something. And if they screw us over, like they did to the tea party in FL, then we come back at them twice as hard the next time. Did you really expect them to cede power to us after one historic election? The progs didn’t get here in one election cycle. We have to look at the long game. Withholding our votes in November or voting third party or (God forbid) voting Obama is just a bunch of passive aggressive bullshit, if you ask me.

    Now excuse me while I go look at the sparkly stuff. Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!

    ADD: The first I heard of a brokered convention was not from the establishment class. It was at C4P right after Palin announced she was not running. Now, they may be a bunch of closet Mitt supporters or clueless or both. No one took them seriously at the time, though because Perry hadn’t completely flamed out yet and Cain was surging. Let’s hope they’ve taken steps to make tea party inroads at the convention.

    • stellap says:

      Brava, Finch! Passive aggressive is a perfect description.

      I would add that we can talk all day about the terrible things that Romney would do if he is President. We can make predictions, but we already KNOW the kinds of things that Obama will do if he is reelected.

      • AFinch says:

        Yeah, there are very few things in this life that I KNOW, but I know another four years of Obama would be a disaster.

        Oh and I have to note a correction to my prior post. It seems the deadline to file to be an Indiana delegate was Friday. So, it looks like it’s too late for me. You know whose fault that is? Mine. Not some nameless, faceless establishment. For far too long, I’ve failed to take an interest in local politics, thinking I’m too busy and important to do so. I have no one to blame but myself for this mess we’re in. I’m not going to compound it by sitting out the next election.

        • JRD says:

          You are entitled to your opinion.

          • stellap says:

            You mean you don’t KNOW that another four years of Obama would be a disaster? Would you be so sure that Romney would do a worse job that you are willing to find out for sure (about Obama, that is)?

          • barnslayer says:

            You’re being evasive. The Founding Fathers argued over slavery in the wording of The Constitution. It was decided they needed to become unified on independence first and defer the slavery issue. Had they insisted on everything being perfect there would have been nothing. I will vote for any republican. Then I will continue to press the Tea Party agenda on all levels even if Ron Paul or Newt becomes president. Perfect ain’t on the ballot (I didn’t see Jesus listed, did you?). Vote out obama. Agreed?

      • JRD says:

        stellap

        I asked you a question last Sunday and you didn’t answer it. What do you suggest conservatives do to remedy the situation. I am not being a wise ass. I’m sincerely interested.
        I haven’t been sitting around in Florida for the past five years playing. I worked extremely hard to get West elected for 2 election cycles now. In 2010 I also busted my butt for Rubio and Pam Bondi.
        In 2010 we told the Republicans we aren’t thrilled with you either. Do the right thing or we will vote you out. Not only did the establishment ignore us they co-opted our Tea Party candidates. Voting for Romney means we gave the establishment an idle threat.
        My opinion of who is at fault has changed. It is not the Democrats. The Republican establishment is addicted to power and they will not change unless they become the permanent minority party. It was the Republican establishment that took the 2008 McCain/Palin ticket out before the November election. It was the Republican establishment that purposely torpedoed taking the senate in 2010 by taking out the candidate in Delaware and Alaska. No conservative will ever gain any traction. Their legs will always be cut out from under them. The Republicans allow the Democrats to do their dirty work for them like passing socialized medicine and then make all kinds of excuses for why they cannot rectify the situation.
        How can we have the same behavior and expect a different outcome?

        I now view the Republican establishment as I do addicts. I cannot enable them in their behavior any longer. It’s commonly referred to as “tough love.” I am giving them enough rope to hang themselves.

        I also am not trying to convince you or anyone else to not vote. I just can’t do it if Romney is the candidate. I also don’t have any animosity towards you if you vote for him.
        Romney is unelectable. This is something I know. There is still too much anger toward Wall Street for the mortgage backed securities debacle. I work in the financial industry. I am still the enemy.
        I hear it everyday.

        • I really think we’re bloodying each other’s noses over the principles of a moot point. Why worry about the general right now and what we would do ‘if?’ We agree that this battle, right now, for the soul of the GOP, matters. We have two enemies. JRD is right that we have little hope with Mitt, since he will almost certainly lose against Obama no matter what we do. But, if it comes to it, Barn and Stella are probably right that we may have to hold our noses and vote long-term. But Forcing our JRD to admit that now, in the heat of battle, is counterproductive. I’d rather not worry about that outcome now, either. Let’s fight to get another anti-GOP-establishment-candidate-like-Reagan. Fight, fight, fight.

          • stellap says:

            Grunt, I’m not trying to bloody anyone’s nose, but I will not let anyone reading this blog to get the idea that it is okay to stay home. Several people have expressed this opinion, and I will speak up every time that is posited as a viable alternative. I don’t think it is.

            • AFinch says:

              Yeah. I’m seeing it more and more. I’ve been guilty of it in the past, too. No more.

            • Understood, Stella. I agree with you, and I could certainly never agree with JRD’s original threat to vote FOR Obama. But staying home, in that event, is something you probably will not be able to talk her out of. If we end up with Mitt vs. Obama, you may need all your energy to talk ME out of staying home! ;)

            • JRD says:

              I’m not trying to bloody anyone’s nose or impose my opinion on anyone else. I’m just not voting if Romney is the nominee and I have that right. But it honestly doesn’t matter because Romney can’t win.

              • Ms.Tee says:

                Thank you! I’m of the same vein, JRD.I cannot and will not vote for a soggy, cucumber and mayonnaise sandwich. Mitt won’t win with or without our support, so the whole point is moot anyway.

        • stellap says:

          I had just typed a long answer, and it went poof! What I was saying is that I admire your hard work, and I believe in your sincerity. I think we have a long fight ahead of us, over a few election cycles at least. Just because we aren’t seeing what we want this election cycle is no reason to vote 3rd-party or stay home, in my opinion. I admit I bristled at what I perceived to be your superior attitude – you couldn’t vote for Romney, but good for me if I can. Staying home, in my opinion, will do nothing to ‘punish’ the establishment. They aren’t going anywhere, and will persist. Because we know what Obama has done, and intends to do, it is more important, again in my opinion, to get rid of him as soon as possible. If he knows he doesn’t have to face reelection, he will do even more outrageous things than he has done already.

          • JRD says:

            But you get bristled easily. I am not trying to piss you off.

            I am telling you that I am burnt out. And, I am telling you that what I have found out will cause me to act in an uncivil manner. I am intentionally not telling you what I have found out because I don’t want to prejudice your opinion. Everyone has to pay their dues and get involved with the Republican establishment and find out for themselves. I don’t think that I am any better than you. As a matter of fact I asked you 2 times already. What do you suggest we do to stop the establishment from controlling the outcome? I’m open. I’m game. You got ideas, let’s hear them.

            We’ve got to have a plan. We can’t just go along to get along. It’s not working. But when people brainstorm and think outside the box they come up with a solution. What else can we do? Have you any ideas.

        • AFinch says:

          What I’m hearing is that you think you’ve done everything you can do to pull the GOP right and voting for any more of their candidates would do more harm than good. I cannot argue with that. I just know that I haven’t given my best effort yet, and until I do I can’t complain about the process.

          • JRD says:

            Then you should go for it, but I’m done. I paid my dues. It’s someone else’s turn. I’ll sent you a case of the Sangiovese wine that I make this September/October in Tuscany for all your troubles. There are no sulfites in it so you can drink it all day and not get faced.

            Besides, I think that you should run for office. You are what my grandmother would refer to as “still full of piss and vinegar.” You’ve got a lot more fight left in you.

            After what was done in Florida during the primary I cannot be civil any longer. That’s when it’;s time to chill out.There are plenty of people in south Florida who agree with me. We are pissed and we won’t forget it any time soon. So I’ll just drink wine and make pasta and ignore Mitt.

        • barnslayer says:

          Liberties are like muscles. If you don’t exercise them they will weaken. We may not love the choices but ‘we must vote while we are still allowed’. Vote your heart in the primary. Vote survival in the election.

    • Finch. Just curious. Understanding the delegate weights, and the super-delegate weights beyond them, and given the 100+ state GOP party endorsements for mittens can you outline for me a hypothetical way that a brokered convention would lead to someone other than Mitt Romney.

      • AFinch says:

        I’m not sure I understand the question. There are 2286 delegates to the RNC convention, including something like 117 “super delegates”. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R The Rules of the Convention state that each delegate–including the super delegates–gets one vote. I’m not aware of any “weighting” that will occur. http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf It’s also my understanding that the state non-super delegates are bound only for one vote. (The super delegates are not bound). After that, they can vote for whomever they want. Now, state party leadership may influence how those delegates vote. But in Indiana, for example, anyone can be a delegate–one doesn’t need to be a party leader. You just have to have voted in the Republican primary. I don’t know the rules in other states. But if they are similar to Indiana, and enough tea party types and/or Ron Paul types have positioned themselves to be at the conventions, I can certainly conceive of a scenario where Mitt Romney is not the nominee.

        • Similar to how a presidential election comes down to electoral votes, what this or any presidential primary comes down to is delegates. The Republican nominee needs the vote of 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination. Delegates are actual people chosen by the state parties to physically attend the convention and vote. Where things get tricky is the myriad of ways that states allot the votes of their delegates. States either have bound or unbound delegates (or even a portion of each).

          A bound delegate is obligated to vote by the results of the binding caucus or primary in their state, either all for the winner or proportionate based on a threshold (anywhere from 10-25 percent finish required to get a share). Unbound delegates are awarded at the convention, by whatever means the party in that state decides – though technically, an unbound delegate can go off the script and vote for whomever they like on the convention floor. So let’s just call unbound delegates the “establishment” preferred.

          Then there are other so-called “superdelegates,” 132 unbound votes that go to state party chairs, former national party chairs, retired politicians, etc. That’s more than 10 percent of the vote needed to secure the nomination and again, they can vote for whomever they choose. Let’s just call this the “establishment”.

          How do states get delegates? It’s not really based on population as most people assume, though that’s a major factor in the end because of the number of congressional districts. Each state starts with a base number of 10 and then are awarded 3 per congressional district, plus “bonus” delegates for things like having a GOP Senator or Governor, Republican majorities in their state chambers, and carrying the state in the last presidential election. Who do you think the “bonus delegates” will vote for? Yep, the establishment pick.

          Question still stands.

          • stellap says:

            I believe the delegates are bound for the initial vote only. If no candidate gets the required number of votes, they are free to change their votes.

            • AFinch says:

              That’s my understanding as well. And at least in Indiana, the delegates are not chosen by the party. They are elected. And even though the number of “bonus” delegates are awarded to a state based on a number of different factors, there is no reason to assume that they are establishment preferred. They are normal people just like everyone else. Calling them “bonus” delegates doesn’t change that. The only presumed establishment delegates are the “super-delegates,” which are actual past and current party leaders. Each state can have up to three, for a max of 150, but I’ve seen differing reports on how many there actually are this year. RCP said 68, and The Green Papers said 117.

          • AFinch says:

            1. I do not agree that the state GOP chooses the delegates in every case. They do not in Indiana. To say that the delegates are establishment preferred assumes too much.

            2. State conventions have not happened yet, so it is still possible to influence how any unpledged delegates will be awarded. I think it gives the establishment too much credit–especially in states like CO, MO, and MN that just voted–to say those currently unpledged delegates are establishment preferred. Hopefully those voters will remain active and make their voices heard.

            3. There is nothing special about the bonus delegates that makes them establishment preferred. It affects the number of delegates each state gets–not who the delegates are. So to assume they are establishment preferred assumes too much.

            What it comes down to is who the actual delegates are and whether they will have the courage to vote independently after the first vote. I know Paul’s people have been working hard on this front as have other tea party groups. I think that instead of conceding that a brokered convention favors the establishment we should be (1) trying to become delegates, (2) attending our state conventions to have a say in how our delegates are awarded, and (3) educating people on the convention rules so they know how to outmaneuver the establishment if it comes to that.

            • Michigan (whose delegates, like Florida’s, were halved as a penalty for moving up their date) and Arizona go to the polls on February 28. Michigan’s 30 remaining delegates are a mix of winner take all (congressional district) and proportionate (at-large delegates). Arizona is an important, straight-up, winner take all, 29-delegate contest. Then Washington state will put on another non-binding contest before Super Tuesday, where 10 states will put a whopping 437 delegates in play, giving a candidate the chance to win a mathematical victory – though most of the states are proportional.

              The biggest absurdity revealed by the 2012 primary so far is how undemocratic the process actually is. Once people understand the rules, you start to recognize how little they have to do with the outcome.

              Super-delegates will almost certainly vote for the establishment GOP choice.
              Unbound delegates will be delivered to the establishment GOP choice during a series of horse trading manipulations. The State GOP control who the unbound delegates are voting for.
              Bound delegates are assigned to the candidate who won based on voter preferrence.

              Now, if all of this does not deliver 1,144 voting delegates for one specific candidate then the entire convention is considered “brokered”. All voting requirements are removed, the bound are released from their obligations, and the entire process begins anew at the convention to find a candidate who can coalesce the needed 1,144 delegates. The national GOP controls the convention from that point.

              Question still stands.

          • stellap says:

            In Michigan, we do not register voters by party, so there is no way to know if Democrats are voting in the Republican primary, or not (unless they are held on the same day, which they were in 2010). In 2000, McCain won the Michigan primary because, in my opinion, Dems voted in the Republican primary.

    • G8rmom7 says:

      After reading all the comments above I am honestly torn. I could not agree more with JRD and how the establishment GOP has totally left us. But then, I also agree that another 4 years of Obama would far worse than ANY of the candidates on the GOP ticket right now.

      I guess for me because I have not put my heart and sould (time and money) into a lot of the Tea Party battles over the past 3 years the way JRD has, I can still stomach throwing my vote in the anti-Obama vote…no matter who that is. But I can certainly understand why JRD just won’t do it.

      At least for now, it’s still a free country, so good on all ya!

  5. I hope that everyone who perceives a “brokered convention” as a positive outcome is right. I really do.

    ADD: That was the reason I asked if anyone could put together in their mind a scenario that would lead to a non-Romney as victorious during a brokered convention. I just don’t see that pathway and anyone who can provide that hypothetical would be providing me a glimmer of hope I currently do not posess.

    Regardless of who wins that nomination process I will vote for that non-Obama name.

    I have witnessed too much destruction on Freedom and Liberty to vote in any manner that might provide Barack Obama a second term. Everything about Barack H. Obama’s background is manipulated. He is, in the purest of senses, a liar, a cheat, a con artist, and a hard-line radical leftist. Period. That I am certain of.

    Will Romney do anything different? Who knows. I doubt it, I really do. But given the option of Obama or Romney I will vote for Romney only because there is a possibility he will drive the bus off the cliff slower, and who knows…. there’s always succession. ;)

    In the interim, I will do everything I can to stop a Romney nomination because Mitt and Barack are cut from the same do anything to get elected cloth. Gingrich or Santorum I believe will be the best shot at some kind of principled president. Ron Paul ain’t planning on being president, for him its like the progs, all about the movement, the process, not the actual governing thing.

    That’s my take. I have no faith, zero, zippo, zylch, that a brokered convention will bring anything except Romney to become the nominee, and in the process it will be so divisive and the infighting will be so extreme that the nomination process at that point will heavily support an Obama T-2. For that and many reasons I pray daily the electorate will not allow a brokered process to become the eventuality. :(

    Wolverines !!

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